Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

 
The Kennedy-Speier-Hendrickson three-way

Colorado Rockies get: Joe Kennedy.
Toronto Blue Jays get: Justin Speier.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays get: Mark Hendrickson.

This is an interesting skills-based deal, the kind we generally don't see anymore. None of these guys are making all that much money, so an evaluation of the trade comes down to who is most likely to fit best on their new teams.

Hendrickson, as many of you I'm sure are aware, was a professional basketball player who couldn't really play (at a level that would allow him to have a lengthy career anyway) and is huge (6'9"). As intimidating a presence as he surely must be on the mound releasing the ball from as high as he does, he's 29 and really hasn't been effective as a major league pitcher. While he posted a 2.46 ERA over 36.2 innings (16 games, 4 starts) in 2002, he regressed to a 5.51 ERA over 158.1 innings (30 games, all starts) last season. He's also got a much lower strikeout rate than you'd (or I'd) expect from a guy that tall...he had just 76 last season. The Jays' pitching was pretty weak last season, which allowed Hendrickson to accumulate 30 starts despite their poor quality. Due to the major upgrade they've made heading into 2004 (with the acquisitions of Ted Lilly, Miguel Batista and Pat Hentgen), there really isn't much room for a guy who was this ineffective at this age in an extended trial.

Okay, so why would Tampa Bay trade a promising young (24-year old) starter in Joe Kennedy, even one who had a horrific 2003, for Hendrickson? I'm really not sure. The Rays have a bunch of guys who could be patched together to form a rotation in Jeremi Gonzalez, John Halama, Victor Zambrano, Paul Abbott, Doug Waechter, Chad Gaudin, Jorge Sosa, Dewon Brazelton and now Hendrickson. There are a few young guys in there (Waechter, Gaudin and Brazelton) and Kennedy was another. If you're in Tampa's situation - with three teams likely to be very competitive in your own division - isn't there something to be said for letting the young guys go and seeing what you have? I realize that this (packing the team with young, cheap players) can't go on forever...eventually you've got to show the fans an obvious effort to put a winning team on the field and spend some money...but I'm willing to bet that Tampa could get their fan base more excited about a team centered on guys like Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford and Gaudin than it can about a team relying on ancients like the 36-year old Paul Abbott. So I really don't know why Tampa would do this. GM Chuck LaMar has apparently been enamored with Hendrickson for a long time, having drafted him when he was the Braves' scouting director eleven years ago. He's also convinced that, being in the AL East, the Devil Rays need a lefty. (I guess Halama, who he signed less than a month ago and who has a better track record as a major league pitcher, doesn't count for some reason.) In any case, I would think that LaMar would be more concerned with getting guys who can pitch effectively, regardless of what arm they throw with, at this stage of his team's development.

Kennedy is of particular interest to Dan and I, as he's on our Diamond-Mind team. We were rooting for him to do well in Tampa, and while his prospects have dimmed considerably in the past season (due to his awful season last year and now his move to Colorado), he's still just 24 and has already pitched 448 major league innings with some success. I'm certainly not a pitching coach or a doctor, so I don't know exactly what went wrong...but Kennedy was absolutely terrible in 2003, posting a 3-12 record and 6.13 ERA. His numbers got worse pretty much all the way across the board, and he ultimately lost his spot in the rotation, quite a feat on a team as bad as the Devil Rays were last year (63-99, 32 games out of a playoff spot). The Rockies give up Justin Speier in this trade, a pitcher who has been good for them in his roughly two and a half seasons. But the problem in Colorado has never been the pitching out of the bullpen...it's been the rotation. There's been a plethora of ideas proferred about how to best build a staff in Colorado, and while I don't have much to add to the discussion, it seems to me that your best chance for success is to have as many options available as possible. Kennedy is now a candidate (one with a leg up, I would think) along with Scott Elarton, Chin-Hui Tsao, Denny Stark, Aaron Cook and Cory Vance to round out a rotation topped by Shawn Chacon and Jason Jennings. For a team like the Rockies with multiple holes, getting a young starter with potential for an established, solid reliever seems like a reasonable proposition. There's no getting around the horrendous season that Kennedy's coming off of, but the prospect of him being able to resurrect his once-promising career in Denver is mighty intriguing.

Finally, the acquisition of Speier makes sense for the Blue Jays. Having just dramatically improved their rotation (as I mentioned a few blocks of writing ago), Hendrickson was likely to be pitching out the bullpen, if he made the roster at all. At this point in their careers, based on all the evidence we have available to us, Speier's simply a better pitcher. He put up perfectly adequate numbers for a steady, reliable reliever during his time in Colorado, and was, like most pitchers, better away from Coors Field. He'll be away all the time now. And while the Toronto rotation has really improved, the bullpen could stand to add some help to a core that currently consists of Kerry Ligtenberg, Aquilino Lopez and now, Speier. I think the bottom line from Toronto's perspective is that they're getting a superior, more established pitcher as compared to Hendrickson. With the need for Hendrickson's ability to start disappearing, the opportunity to upgrade the bullpen was one they had to take advantage of.

Ultimately, there's good to be taken away from this deal both in Colorado and Toronto...shockingly, it's hard to see exactly how Tampa Bay is improving itself.
posted by VZW Watcher at 9:02 PM -

 
Pettitte to the Astros

As tough as it is to see Andy Pettitte go, I'm not blaming anyone for this. Pettitte's leaving New York for some very understandable reasons, and while I don't know how anyone can live in/around New York for as long as he has and not love it...he's more comfortable in the South, where he's from. I can respect that. He gave us some great years in New York, and I'm certainly grateful.

As for the Yankees' supposed bungling of negotiations, I have a hard time believing it was a huge factor in this decision. Ultimately, everyone's willing to acknowledge that the Yanks offered more money than the Astros and it simply wasn't enough. Sure, if the Yanks had come with something like $15 million+ a season over five years Andy might've accepted, but the offer they made was perfectly reasonable. All things being equal, I expect Pettitte would've taken it. Of course, all things weren't equal, and he's an Astro. There was clearly far more to this decision than money from Pettitte's perspective, and I can't blame Steinbrenner for losing out here.

What's made me happiest about this story are the reports that Pettitte immediately dismissed playing for the Red Sox because he couldn't betray the Yankee fans who supported him during his nine years in New York. Finally! I realize that the Yankees and Red Sox are two of the richest teams out there and can thus offer very lucrative contracts, but I'm always baffled and disgusted when guys like Ramiro Mendoza, who have had really nice careers with one of the teams (the Yankees, obviously, in this case) go and sign with the other. Don't they realize that such a thing is tantamount to stabbing the entire fan base in the back? Mendoza was fine when he was in New York, we appreciated his efforts...but you think Yankee fans want to have him back for anything (Old Timer's Day, whatever else down the line) now? He's a traitor. He may not see it that way, but you can't convince me that he didn't have other options for similar money. The only place you can't go as a Yankee-on-your-way-out-via-free-agency is Boston. He did, and he's paying the price (and not playing in Boston, but that's another story). Pettitte is leaving the Yankees for reasons we can all understand, and made certain that he didn't damage his legacy in New York as he did so. I really appreciate that.
posted by VZW Watcher at 11:29 AM -

 
Vazquez for Johnson and Rivera

New York Yankees get: Javier Vazquez.
Montreal Expos get: Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, Randy Choate.

Like many Yankee fans, I'm sorry to see Nick Johnson go. Dan and I haven't discussed the matter yet, but I have a feeling we're of the same mind on this one: it sucks to give up a player as young and talented as Johnson, but if you're going to do it, Vazquez is the kind of guy you'd like to get back. While money is a factor in this trade, it really doesn't make a whole lot of sense to get into that from the Yankees' perspective. Sure, it's great for the Expos that they'll be able to keep their costs down and improve the team in certain areas - Rivera's not arbitration-eligible yet, while Johnson is for the first time this year - but money clearly has very little bearing on what the Yankees do. Vazquez made $6 million last season and is in line for a raise, as he's coming off an excellent year. Whether it's $8 million or $10 million in 2004, the Yankees have acquired an excellent 27-year old starting pitcher who is likely to remain in pinstripes, at whatever cost, for quite awhile.

While this deal substantially improves the Yankee rotation as it stood before the trade, I'm far from certain that this is a better staff than the one the team featured in 2003. Mike Mussina is a very legitimate ace and will return and anchor the staff, but Roger Clemens is gone and David Wells likely is too. Bringing back Andy Pettitte would certainly help, and a Mussina-Vazquez-Pettitte rotation with some combination of Jeff Weaver, Jose Contreras and Jon Lieber bringing up the back end would be the envy of most teams. The resigning of Pettitte, however, is crucial, something the Yanks apparently realize and are focusing their efforts on, particularly now that they've done some initial reshuffling.

From the Montreal perspective, there's no reason to believe that Nick Johnson won't be able to continue his excellent production barring injury, which is a risk with his history. At 25, he's got plenty of time to improve, will play everyday in Montreal and be an integral part of a nice nucleus in (at least) Jose Vidro, Brad Wilkerson, Orlando Cabrera and Johnson.

Losing Juan Rivera really doesn't phase me. He's been talked up as a Yankee prospect for some time, and while he went through stretches last season where he was effective, it's hard for me to believe that the time will come in the near future where the Yankees won't have a better option to trot out to rightfield. Right now, with the signing of Gary Sheffield imminent, his value to the team is as little more than a fourth or fifth outfielder. He's also not that young (25 right now), so if he's ever going to be a legitimate starting major league outfielder, this is exactly the kind of opportunity he needs to prove himself. I'd imagine he'll get some serious playing time in Montreal, as there's really not much competition for the right field job should Vladimir Guerrero be allowed to walk (and this certainly points in that direction). He's a cheap, sensible option for the Expos, and a guy it makes a lot of sense to acquire.

Randy Choate may get some run in Montreal, but realistically, there was very little chance he'd ever have a meaningful role in the Bronx. It's kind of a shame on some level, even as a Yankee fan, to realize that the days of organizational filler coming in and holding down important spots are largely over omfor the time being, but that's the way it is and I can think of worse situations to be in as a fan. The Yankee bullpen is going to be substantially better in 2004 than it was last year, with guys like Felix Heredia, Tom Gordon, Paul Quantrill and hopefully our boy from Queens Steve Karsay and Gabe White around for the full season to keep games close and set up for the Hammer of God, guys like Choate aren't particularly necessary.

I'm really torn about this. It's going to be great to see a pitcher of Javier Vazquez's caliber in pinstripes next year, and I think this is an excellent counterstrike to the Red Sox' acquisition of Curt Schilling. While Schilling might be the better pitcher over the next year or two or three (and I'm far from conceding that point), Vazquez could well excel for the Yankees for the next decade. The package the Yankees had to give up here is more substantial than that surrended by the Red Sox for Schilling, but the deal certainly has it merits. Losing Johnson hurts in that it leaves a hole in the lineup where a highly productive bat was last season. Jason Giambi will likely have to take on more of the first base duties, and while he'll probably be fine, he's not a sure thing at the moment due to injury concerns. It seems possible to me that the Yankees will now go out, once the market settles down a little, and sign another first baseman - perhaps Rafael Palmeiro or someone like that - to take some of the load of Giambi defensively and contribute to the lineup.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:33 AM -

 
Schilling to the Red Sox, potentially

If I'm not mistaken, it was reported earlier in this offseason that when the Yankees made inquiries regarding acquiring Curt Schilling, they were told that the Diamondbacks would require both Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano and additional prospects. While I'm assuming the natural recoil to that request on the part of the Yankees helped them to realize how ridiculous and unrealistic it was, if this trade goes through, they've settled for a hell of a lot less here. I understand that the Diamondbacks are trying to move salary so they can address other needs, but this is still a pretty poor return on a top-tier player. It's tough for me to believe that if Arizona went to the Yankees and told them they had this deal on the table from the Red Sox that they couldn't do a bit better. For whatever reason, the players involved in this trade appear to have been agreed upon, so it's solely dependent on Schilling's approval (and the Red Sox giving him the extension he requires) at this point.

Casey Fossum's name has been thrown around in trade talks for the last couple of years, and while he's still got promise, he's far from a sure thing. By the beginning of the 2004 season, Fossum will be 26 years old and has thrown a total of 230 major innings over three seasons, posting a 4.42 ERA while allowing 239 hits, walking 84 batters and striking out 190. His stock was probably highest after the 2002 season in which he posted his best major league numbers, but that's been tempered a bit by his struggles in 19 games (14 starts) in 2003. His strikeout rate (almost one per inning in 2002) declined to just 63 over 79 innings, walking 34 and allowing 82 hits and nine home runs. He may yet have a nice career, but this doesn't look to me like a guy you'd be shooting for as the centerpiece of deal that's sending a pitcher of Curt Schilling's caliber the other way.

As for the other players involved...Brandon Lyon is a guy the Red Sox picked up off the scrap heap before last season, and while he had a decent year in Boston rebounding from an awful 2002 in Toronto, he can't be considered more than a back of the bullpen pitcher based on his career-to-date. Minor league centerfielder Michael Goss is also reportedly heading to Arizona, in organization only...he's apparently very fast, but doesn't have much else going for him, including any serious major league prospects. If you're interested, he hit .245 in the Sally League last year with no power as a 22-year old.

Though Fossum is the better known guy and ready to step into the Arizona rotation immediately, the key to this trade from the Diamondbacks' standpoint may be Jorge de la Rosa. Considered by many one of the best pitching prospects in the Boston system, de la Rosa will be just 23 at the beginning of the 2004 season and will likely begin at AAA, where he finished 2003 (with five starts at Pawtucket). He's struck out close to a batter an inning at pretty much every level thus far, and posted a 6-3 record at AA Portland last year in 22 games (20 starts), striking out 102 and walking 36 while allowing 87 hits over 99.2 innings. I'm no prospect guru, but I'd have to assume that if he continues to pitch well at AAA (as he did in limited action last year), he'll have a shot at the majors as early as next season.

Upon first hearing word of this trade, names like Hanley Ramirez and Kelly Shoppach were being bandied about, and that made sense. Those are the kind of prospects that I'd expect a team to have to give up to get a guy like Schilling, especially when I'd heard demands for players the caliber of solid, proven major league players like Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano made. But the Red Sox have somehow managed to work this trade out while only moving two real prospects, one of whom is old enough that I'm not even sure the tag applies anymore. And does trading Fossum, when you get a guy like Schilling in return, even hurt much? While Fossum is obviously cheaper, he's unlikely to ever have a season like those Schilling has posted in recent years...and cost doesn't appear to be Boston's concern anyway. Much like the Yankees when they trade away someone like Juan Rivera (I realize they haven't traded him, but he's a prime example of an older prospect they've got), it's a low-risk gamble...if Fossum becomes something special in a couple of years, a) he's not far from 30 and b) the Red Sox can go out and sign or trade for someone else to bolster their rotation if circumstances demand it. Schilling's a much better bet than Fossum right now, and that's what matters.

From a Boston perspective, this trade makes oodles of sense. You give up very little for one of the best pitchers in the game and establish a rotation with the potential to be really, really dominant. I've been trying to think of a way to spin so that the Red Sox ultimately come out poorly, which is of course, what I'd love to see...but this is just a terrific move. It's going to be essential from Schilling's perspective that a contract extension be worked out, probably two or three years at something in the neighborhood of $12-15 million per. While that's unquestionably a lot of money and limits options in some other areas, Schilling's one of the few older pitchers you could reasonably shell out eight figures to. Naturally, a championship in any of these three or four years (the 2004 season plus those in the extension) would more than make the contract pay for itself. The only thing I question is what might need to be done to convince Schilling to relocate (as he's living comfortably in Arizona, or so it sounds), and by that I mean hiring a manager he's got connections to in Terry Francona. Here in Boston, I've gotten the impression that the Red Sox were leaning towards doing this anyway, so maybe it's a non-issue...but it seems to me that there might be more desirable, qualified candidates out there, and you certainly wouldn't want this decision to be made because of a potential player's preference. But what do I know? (I am all for the Red Sox hiring Francona, by the way.)

It's been reported that there may be an additional element to this trade which would see Richie Sexson sent from Milwaukee to Arizona in exchange for something cheap, if we know the Brewers at all. It's unclear exactly how this potential deal would affect that one, other than giving the Diamondbacks some reason to make this trade, clearing out some salary for Sexson by moving Schilling. We can address that if and when there are further developments, but for now, this is (potentially, assuming the parties can come to an agreement) a huge win for the Red Sox and a big step towards a championship they weren't too far from last year.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:23 AM -

 
Escobar to Anaheim

You could do worse with $18.75 million than to secure the services of Kelvim Escobar for three years, but there's reason to question the move. There's been an awful lot of talk about how the market is taking a downturn (or about to do so) in terms of player salaries, but how much could a pitcher with Escobar's credentials have expected to get in the most free spending, player-friendly of times? I suppose the days of Darren Dreifort getting $11 million a year are in the past, but this still seems like a lot of money. Escobar's signing seems largely based on potential (you wouldn't pay this much for, say, his numbers from last season over the next three years)...which is a little strange for a guy who's going to be 28 at the beginning of the 2004 season.

While he's certainly got a chance to be an effective #3 or #4 starter in a rotation headed by Jarrod Washburn, Ramon Ortiz and John Lackey (I'm assuming he'll slot in somewhere there), what has he done so far in his career? It's worth noting that he's been jerked around a ton over the course of his time in Toronto, perhaps more than anyone else in recent days, but looking at his career overall, he's been a pretty mediocre pitcher with flashes of brilliance thrown in. The Angels can't have any firm idea of what they're getting here other than a guy who has looked great at times in the past. Seems like a sketchy proposition to me, and not a guy I'd want to guarantee significant money.

On the plus side, the contract will cover Escobar's age 28-30 seasons, so it's not like the Angels are locking up Tom Glavine at big money here. Also, the Angels have stated that they're willing to spend some money this offseason, so perhaps this isn't the only significant move we'll see from them. Additionally, I think we can be pretty sure that Escobar's going to be planted in the rotation and left alone (the Angels have a nice bullpen already and aren't paying him to relieve), so we'll finally get a chance to see what he's able to do with it. He's certainly capable of pitching well enough to warrant this kind of cash, but the Angels spending this kind of money to bring in a player with Escobar's track record doesn't strike me as a terribly sound decision.
posted by VZW Watcher at 11:19 PM -

 
Bam-Tino goes home

Devil Rays get: Tino Martinez.
Cardinals get: Evan Rust, a player to be named and a bunch of cash.

As a Yankee fan, there will always be a place in my heart for Tino Martinez. Though he replaced one of the most beloved Yankees of all-time (and my personal favorite by a wide margin in Don Mattingly), he won the fan base over with his professionalism and more importantly, his solid play and role on four championship teams. While certainly not a Hall-of-Famer or all-time Yankee legend, Martinez has had a really nice, productive career which he's managed to parlay into his current absurd contract.

While Martinez isn't a guy you want playing first base every day on a team that could reasonably contend like the Cardinals (particularly given the money he's making), I still don't see how this makes a ton of sense for St. Louis. While it'd be nice to get the $8.5 million he's due over the remainder of the contract off the books, the Cardinals are picking up $7 million of it as part of the deal and are getting basically nothing back. Never heard of Evan Rust? That's because just about nobody had before this trade was announced. He's a non-descript 25-year old minor league reliever with virtually no prospects of ever being a factor at the major league level. His numbers this past season at AA Orlando and AAA Durham were fine, and it seems conceivable that the Cardinals could give him a shot at some point...but he's unlikely to have a major impact. This appears to be a pure contract dump (we'll have to see who the PTBNL is, I suppose), which would be fine...if, of course, the contract was actually being dumped. It's really not - the Cardinals are just going to be paying Tino to play for the Devil Rays. From Tampa's perspective, you'd like to think they could do a bit better than importing a moderately productive soon-to-be 36-year old, but for $1.5 million, I guess it's a risk you can afford to take.

The Devil Rays went with Travis Lee at first most of last year, and while Tino isn't likely to stick for any length of time, Lee probably wasn't a long term solution either (because he's just not that good), and he's gone now.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:27 AM -

 
Dan and I spoke a bit on baseball matters last night. Here's what we said:

the Daniel Stein (1:34:47 AM): the big rumor today is around soriano and schilling, and it may include sexson as well
MEBarnard (1:35:12 AM): I had nightmares about it during my nap today
MEBarnard (1:36:00 AM): first of all, I really don't like schilling. secondly, he's real old and we don't need more of that. and we'd have to give up our best young player in nick johnson to get him and give him a new deal for a ton of money.
the Daniel Stein (1:36:29 AM): what if its just sory and we keep johnson?
MEBarnard (1:37:53 AM): it's a bit better. but I still don't see it being worth our while. schilling's a year away from free agency and would likely require an extension (2 years or more) at $10+ million a year to come here, and soriano is still arbitration-eligible. soriano's 25 or 26 and schilling is 36.
MEBarnard (1:38:20 AM): if we're trading soriano for pitching, let's get someone like javier vazquez, not schilling.
the Daniel Stein (1:40:12 AM): gammons said either johnson or sory would be gone this offseason, but andy will be back
MEBarnard (1:41:03 AM): I really hope pettitte's back. and that soriano's gone...for carlos beltran, or someone of that approximate age.
the Daniel Stein (1:42:23 AM): edmonds?
MEBarnard (1:42:49 AM): would be a nice deal from both perspectives...beltran's coming up on free agency and the yanks could resign him at big money and fill the void in center, shifting bernie to left and matsui to right...and soriano and berroa would give the royals an inexpensive and good combination up the middle for a few years.
MEBarnard (1:43:04 AM): edmonds is also older. and makes a lot of money.
MEBarnard (1:43:56 AM): ($9 million in 2004, $10 million in 2005, $12 million in 2006 and an option in 2007 with a $3 million buyout)
the Daniel Stein (1:44:12 AM): who plays second if sory for beltran?
MEBarnard (1:44:38 AM): I don't know...luis castillo? todd walker? we'll find someone.
MEBarnard (1:45:47 AM): I'm not crazy about either of them, but the combination of either and beltran would improve the lineup. adding castillo and beltran would really help the defense.
the Daniel Stein (1:46:14 AM): can't boone play second a little too?
MEBarnard (1:46:19 AM): yeah, he can.
MEBarnard (1:46:46 AM): I just think center has to be addressed...whether that's by getting a beltran or signing, say, mike cameron, it was a big and obvious problem last year.
the Daniel Stein (1:47:09 AM): apparently mets will make a big push for him
the Daniel Stein (1:47:16 AM): he's their #2 priority behind shiggy
MEBarnard (1:47:26 AM): I would love to see him in new york on either team...he's a pleasure to watch.
MEBarnard (1:48:05 AM): and I would avoid hasegawa, I think. naturally, it depends how much he's looking for...but do you realize how old he is?
the Daniel Stein (1:48:58 AM): 36?
MEBarnard (1:49:14 AM): he'll be 36 during next season. that's old.
the Daniel Stein (1:50:18 AM): and the bullpen is a final piece, not a basis
MEBarnard (1:50:56 AM): absolutely. the mets have much more important issues to address.
MEBarnard (1:52:40 AM): like virtually everything else. they don't need a first baseman or shortstop. other than that, what's set?
MEBarnard (1:53:35 AM): I suppose catcher. I'm very comfortable at least going into the season with jason phillips and vance wilson there with mike piazza stepping in if necessary.
the Daniel Stein (1:54:42 AM): we're probably going to have to wait a while for signings though
MEBarnard (1:55:09 AM): that's what I hear too. pretty disappointing.
MEBarnard (1:55:47 AM): I just really hope schilling doesn't become a yankee.
the Daniel Stein (1:56:01 AM): even if it didn't cost sory or johnson?
MEBarnard (1:56:19 AM): well, it depends who. I'd certainly trade some guys for him.
the Daniel Stein (1:56:30 AM): and clemens money is free now
MEBarnard (1:57:17 AM): I just think we should be real careful about continuing to commit lots of money to ancient starters.
MEBarnard (1:57:44 AM): we're going to have to overpay for pettitte to keep him. but at least he's (relatively) young.
the Daniel Stein (1:59:15 AM): schilling or millwood?
MEBarnard (1:59:34 AM): millwood's free and schilling's not. so I'd take millwood at this point.
the Daniel Stein (2:00:00 AM): just money
MEBarnard (2:00:28 AM): yeah. to get schilling, we're talking about a lot of money (more than you'd spend on millwood, per year) and one of our best players.
MEBarnard (2:00:48 AM): and he's a lot older.
the Daniel Stein (2:00:52 AM): especially when the problem really wasn't pitching
MEBarnard (2:02:38 AM): yeah. it wasn't at all. and while the staff obviously needs to be retooled (losing wells and clemens, at least), we're returning mussina, contreras and lieber. and possibly pettitte. and I haven't given up on weaver. so that's really not a bad staff.
the Daniel Stein (2:04:13 AM): i'm much happier with contreras going 2/3 innings
the Daniel Stein (2:04:14 AM): his stuff only works the first time through the order
MEBarnard (2:05:39 AM): I can buy that. I do think he's going to get a chance to start though. why don't you hear jorge depaula's name mentioned at all? I realize this is the yankees, and young starters are rarely given a chance, but he certainly made a good impression last year (admittedly in limited work) and he's not that young (25).
the Daniel Stein (2:07:33 AM): is he the 'stud' of the system?
the Daniel Stein (2:07:45 AM): pitching wise
the Daniel Stein (2:07:45 AM): now
MEBarnard (2:07:53 AM): I think he's the top "ready" pitching prospect, yeah.
MEBarnard (2:10:07 AM): you remember his one start last year? he was phenomenal.
the Daniel Stein (2:10:23 AM): wasn't it almost a no hitter?
MEBarnard (2:10:27 AM): yeah.
MEBarnard (2:10:47 AM): obviously we can't base anything on one start. but he's got a good track record too.
MEBarnard (2:11:06 AM): 6.1 innings of one-hit ball against the orioles.
posted by VZW Watcher at 7:16 PM -

 
Little's out in Boston.

While I'm a little late in addressing the issue, it's now official that Grady Little will not be managing the Red Sox next season. As a Yankee fan, I'm pretty bummed about this, as it was a pleasure to watch his poor in-game managerial skills hurt the Red Sox throughout the season and really blow up in the postseason. I'm in Boston unfortunately, so I've heard a ridiculous and unpleasant amount of discussion on the subject. Briefly, the attitudes of many around here can be grouped into two basic categories:

1. Little deserved to lose his job for allowing Pedro to stay in the game in Game 7 of the ALCS
2. Little made a mistake, but he's a good manager overall (lots of regular season wins) and should keep his job

It surprises me to some degree that Boston, supposedly a big time, well-informed sports town isn't more perceptive on this issue. Had the Red Sox done anything short of going to a World Series this year, I honestly believe Little would have been canned (I realize it's a bit late for this, but I would've told you the same thing prior to the season). The fact that he lost his final game largely to a strategic blunder makes it an easier sell publicly, but I have to believe that the Henry/Epstein/James management team is anxious to get someone they feel more comfortable with in place, and have wanted to do so since they came into power. The truth is, the 2003 iteration of the Red Sox was an immensely talented roster. Playing in a division that required them to play a lot of games against the Orioles and Devil Rays, it's really not surprising that they won 95 games. That's a hell of a job and a terrific season, but you'd have a hard time convincing me that the players assembled wouldn't be able to at least duplicate that kind of success under most managers.

The idea that guys like Charlie Manuel, Jim Fregosi, Mike Hargrove or Glenn Hoffman are going to get this job seems pretty far fetched to me. The whole point is to install a manager consistent with the philosophy of management, and bringing in a old baseball guy simply because he's got major league managerial experience is not something the team's going to be looking for. That's not to say the team won't hire a guy who has managed at the major league level - I think they might well - but I'd be very surprised to see him emerge from that list.

So where is the team likely to look? If I had to guess, I'd say the Red Sox manager next year would emerge from a list more like this one: Larry Dierker, Whitey Herzog, Davey Johnson, Bobby Valentine or Jerry Remy. None of these guys are locks by any means, but I'd be willing to bet that the Red Sox front office is going to take a hard look at each one of them. I'm pretty confused as to why Dierker's name has been mentioned so little in relation to the job (at least in the Boston press), since he seems to me to be the frontrunner. Maybe I'm way off on this, but the Red Sox are now a sabermetrically-oriented team, and he's pretty widely acknowledged as the guy who works best (of those available) in that kind of framework. And while he's been out of baseball for awhile, I really think Whitey Herzog is going to receive serious consideration. He's had great success throughout his managerial career and has turned the Red Sox job down twice in the past. I can't imagine he'd do so again. Bill James, now of the Red Sox, has been an open admirer and supporter of Herzog in the past, and you'd have to think that would help him in this process. Again, I really don't even feel comfortable presenting any kind of prediction on this, simply because Boston could well pull someone up who none of us is considering as a possibility. But the new Red Sox manager is not going to be a retread scrub hired because he's got a bunch of experience. Or because he's managed Manny Ramirez in the past. He's going to be someone who manages in a way consistent with the style of the front office, and that's a real good thing for Boston. I hope I'm wrong.
posted by VZW Watcher at 8:31 PM -

 
Pete Rose: more of this?

Dan pointed out an article to me tonight that appears on the New York Times website written by Jeff Neuman, the former editorial director of the Baseball Encyclopedia, on the issue of Pete Rose's potential enshrinement into the Hall of Fame. Really, this is one of my least favorite notionally baseball-related topics, as it has little to do with anything that occurred on the field. That said, it's an issue, and one that we may well see resolved this offseason (at least according to Baseball Prospectus).

The article is worth a read, and advocates Rose's enshrinement posthumously. I don't have a problem with that. The idea is to punish Rose for his indiscretions, not to deny his accomplishments, which were certainly significant. Many people (I hesitate to say most, as I unfortunately don't think it's true) want to see Rose held accountable for his actions, something that no admission of guilt would have any effect on.

I really don't want to rehash my thoughts on the issue, so here's some of what I wrote back on December 11th of last year:

That said, I couldn't care less if he's allowed into the Hall of Fame. At the time, there was nothing to prohibit banned players from entering the Hall, and he does deserve to be in on merit. While I believe things can and should be done to punish him going forward, his career speaks for itself. The Hall of Fame, in my opinion, is not there to honor great men, it's there to honor great players. It's pretty clear that Rose stuck around far too long in baseball and did so to the detriment of his teams. But it's also clear that he had a superlative career and is the all-time leader in hits. He's a player that deserves a plaque in Cooperstown, regardless of his future in the sport. So I'd be in support of suspending the Hall of Fame rule that no banned player is eligible on the grounds that it was not in place when Rose agreed to a lifetime ban. There's a huge difference between this and his being reinstated, which would be totally reprehensible in light of the facts available to us.

Posthumous induction would really be fine. But in the interests of being a bit more diplomatic and perhaps just, I would advocate putting the issue in the hands of the BBWAA and seeing what happens. If Rose is indeed inducted (as one would certainly suspect), a plaque honoring him gets hung on the wall. And that's it. No ceremony, nothing. And most importantly, the ban from any kind of participation in baseball activities remains unchanged.

Beyond that (commenting more on the article than the issue now), comparing Rose with guys like Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth (who are accused of being "vicious" and "gluttonous" respectively in the column) is ridiculous. There's a pretty big difference between the explicit breaking of rules that uphold the integrity of the entire enterprise and having some character flaws. (There's also a pretty clear difference between Rose and those two guys in terms of qualifications, but that's another matter.) Pete Rose really doesn't deserve to be in the Hall of Fame based on his actions, despite having had a great career. More than that though, he really doesn't ever deserve to be involved with the game whose integrity he worked to destroy.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:12 AM -

 
More on... AL Rookie of the Year

We'll see how we want to arrange what is sure to be a series of postings on who we think should win season-end hardware, but for the moment I'll simply piggyback Dan's posting on the AL Rookie of the Year. The relevant stats for three of the ROY hopefuls have been laid out for you in the previous post, but I think it only fair to invite a few more deserving guests to the consideration party. In keeping with the theme, here's a piece of the block of stat lines Dan presented, with two more candidates added to the mix.

.282/.339/.499 (Jody Gerut)
.261/.333/.482 (Mark Teixeira)
.287/.352/.437 (Hideki Matsui)
.293/.344/.462 (Angel Berroa)
.291/.328/.419 (Rocco Baldelli)

I've heard all these guys have their names mentioned in the debate, and rightly so. Berroa plays what is clearly the most difficult position of any of our candidates (shortstop), and Baldelli is a better outfielder than Gerut or Matsui (Teixeira too, in the 25 games he's played out there) and a joy to watch perform. I really like all these guys, but the final two in my eyes to consider for the award are the ones with the dimmest futures going forward over the long haul, in part due to their ages: Matsui, who is 29, and Berroa, who is 25.

While I respect Dan's choice of Gerut and wouldn't complain if it went that way (though I can't see it happening) and think Teixeira is going to be the clear-cut best player of this group in ten years, Berroa's put up very valuable offensive numbers at a key defensive position all season long. I have no trouble admitting that I, like so many others, thought Berroa was going to be a bust...and he's proved us all wrong. Matsui's a terrific player, and while I'd probably ultimately cast my vote for him, I fully expect him to lose. There's enough of a stir now about whether or not he should be eligible for the award that has conveniently reared its head now that a first-year Japanese player is on the Yankees as opposed to the Mariners. I think there'll be enough voters who leave him off their ballots for this reason to ensure that someone else gets the award. If we were going to remove Matsui from consideration (as I do think should happen, but through official channels...I'd like to see the Rookie of the Year awards given to Kazuhiro Sasaki and Ichiro Suzuki retroactively awarded to Terrence Long and C.C. Sabathia, respectively as well, as they finished second in 2000 and 2001), I'd vote Berroa.

I really like Jason Davis and think he's going to be an awesome major league pitcher...but his season (8-11, 4.68 ERA, 172 hits (25 homers), 47 walks, 85 strikeouts over 165.1 innings) simply doesn't warrant consideration among competition this stiff. He, along with fellow pitcher-on-a-bad-team Jeremy Bonderman, could well be among the best in this rookie class in a couple of years, but as we know, that's not the purpose of the Rookie of the Year exercise.
posted by VZW Watcher at 5:32 PM -

 
It's been almost two weeks since I've posted due to some serious health issues which, god willing, have been resolved. I'll be back to regular duty soon (hopefully that means tomorrow), and I thank those of you who have continued to check in. Take care.
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:44 PM -

 
Mariners take Sanchez off the Mets hands

Seattle Mariners get: Rey Sanchez.
New York Mets get: Kenny Kelly.

The Mariners are a team with a bunch of needs, and it may be only due to the fact that they're competing with flawed competition (the A's, I'm referring only to the AL West divisional race at present) that they're the current favorites (by virtue of their three game lead as I write this) to win their division. That could change very quickly though, as A's general manager Billy Beane has shown the ability to get exactly what his team needs in late July over the past few summers.

On the flip side, Mariners general manager Pat Gillick has a reputation for being inactive around the trading deadline, and it'll be interesting to see whether or not he makes any moves that actually address a major failing on this team (like adding a bat at third base or left field), or if he just jerks around with moves like this one. Kenny Kelly wasn't likely to see the light of day in the Mariners' organization any time soon, so it's just as well that he gets shipped out while he has a chance at some kind of a career. The Mets are a pretty good team to go to right now if you're a young outfielder, as the organization's biggest prospects are either infielders or pitchers and they're currently playing Roger Cedeno on a semi-regular basis at the major league level. Kelly's not an amazing prospect by any means, but he's fast, reasonably young and hitting with some success (.246/.313/.484) at AAA, so he's probably not far from ready to get a crack at seeing what he can do to help the Mets.

What does getting Rey Sanchez accomplish for the Mariners? I'm asking because I really don't know, beyond giving them excellent defense at shortstop and second base. That would be fine, except that they really don't need it, already having Gold Glover Bret Boone in the fold as the regular second baseman and adequate defensive replacements (Mark McLemore, Willie Bloomquist) for Carlos Guillen should they need one. Guillen is hurt right now, but if this move is intended as a stopgap until he gets back, it's only creating another problem. While he was never much of an offensive player, Sanchez hasn't hit at all this season, posting a .207/.240/.236 line with the Mets in 182 plate appearances. That's as close to an offensive black hole as you're going to find the major leagues over that long a stretch of at bats these days, and playing him regularly will leave the Mariners with something akin to an eight-man lineup (which would be fine, if not for that automatic out every time through).

Billy Beane's just made a move to help his team considerably (see the post following this one), and I hope for the sake of Mariners fans that Pat Gillick has more in store for his squad. This is a nice dumping of some salary for the Mets (it's a small one, Sanchez was signed to a $1 million, one year deal before the season), but it's also just getting rid of a guy who has been absolutely useless to the team on the field...and for that, they get someone who could well see a little time in the Met outfield before the season is out.
posted by VZW Watcher at 5:49 PM -

 
Mondesi punted to Arizona

Arizona Diamondbacks get: Raul Mondesi.
New York Yankees get: David Dellucci, Bret Prinz, Jon Mark Sprowl.

This is a crappy deal for the Yankees. I realize that Raul Mondesi had become a problem in the Yankee clubhouse and has been unhappy with his role over the past few weeks. I realize that his behavior might be seen as detrimental to the team (he apparently skipped the team flight to Anaheim, choosing to make the trip a different way), and that there are almost certainly plenty of things that went on in Joe Torre's clubhouse that we, the public, are unaware of. I heard a report this evening after the trade that the Yankee brass was concerned that Mondesi's attitude had been rubbing off on some of the younger players, notably Alfonso Soriano. Perhaps this improves the situation in the Yankee clubhouse, and if that's the case, perhaps something positive can be taken away from it. But from a pure production perspective, this is an awful move.

We're not able to quantify "intangibles" at this point, so we're forced to look at what we do know for sure. Mondesi's been a productive major league hitter this season (.258/.330/.471) who is a decent rightfielder with a cannon for an arm. He's also making a lot of money, but for the team with the highest payroll in baseball by a wide margin, even Mondesi's $13 million salary (of which the Yankees are responsible for $7 million, the rest is being paid by Toronto) for this season is acceptable if accompanied by solid numbers. While he's struggled at times, Mondesi had a terrific month of April when much of the team was struggling, posting a .354/.420/.697 line over 111 plate apperances. His production has clearly dropped off since then, but he's a valuable offensive player and an asset regardless of what he's doing off the field. The Yankees have enough solid citizens on the roster that you'd think they'd be able to manage a bad seed here and there...but apparently that's not the case.

So the Yankees dispatch Mondesi...did they get anything useful in return? First of all, it's important to note that the Yanks aren't getting rid of all of the money that Mondesi is owed for the remainder of this season, as they're sending $2 million to Arizona to help cover their expenses. The kitty: part-time outfielder David Dellucci, righty reliever Bret Prinz and minor league catcher Jon Mark Sprowl. If Sprowl ever turns into anything more than organizational filler, it'll be nice...but I'm not holding out much hope. He's currently 23 in his fourth season at A, and while he's hitting .296/.402/.421 so far this season with A (Midwest) South Bend Silver Hawks, he's got a long way to go and much better prospects in his path.

Dellucci's been a interesting guy in the past, but I'm not sure he is anymore. He doesn't make a lot of money ($900,000 this year, he's not guaranteed beyond that), but of course, he doesn't deserve to based on his major league performance. He's had a few interesting and valuable seasons in limited action (notably his .394/.463/.505 123 plate appearance stint in 1999), but his performance has dropped off considerably over the past two seasons, to the point where there's really no room for him on the current Yankee team outside of as a AAA injury fallback option and possible September roster expansion filler guy. The Yankee lineup can survive the loss of Mondesi (assuming he's replaced on a full-time basis by Ruben Sierra and Karim Garcia and not Dellucci) because of the insertion of Nick Johnson back into the lineup, but giving up a valuable offensive player for not much still isn't a good idea.

Prinz is the most intriguing guy from the Yankees' perspective, as the team does actually need some relief pitching and he's shown he can do it in the past. While he's been hurt for much of the season, he's healthy now and will be assigned to AAA Columbus, but I certainly would not be surprised to see him get a shot at the big league level before the season is over, perhaps even before rosters expand, should any of the Yankees' fringe relievers (mostly referring to Sterling Hitchcock, who may yet be dealt before Thursday's deadline, and maybe Antonio Osuna) have problems.

From the Diamondbacks' perspective, they don't give up much and acquire a legitimate bat to bolster their lineup, so it's a nice move taking advantage of the Yankees' problem. Playing time has been going to Danny Bautista (.259/.298/.330) in right field, so slotting Mondesi in everyday and keeping him happy that way really shouldn't be a problem for Bob Brenly. I'm still not sure they'll get there, but it's certainly a step in the right direction towards the National League Wild Card.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:30 AM -

 
Trade Steve Trachsel

I was listening to an interview of Mets interim general manager Jim Duquette last week on WFAN (the most prominent sports talk radio station here in New York) when he was questioned about the availability of Steve Trachsel - a sensible query given that the Mets are now in full-on rebuilding mode and have already shipped out Roberto Alomar, Jeromy Burnitz, Armando Benitez and now Graeme Lloyd under Duquette's watch this season. Unlike those guys, Trachsel's under contract for at least one more season after 2003, as he's got a guaranteed $5 million coming to him next year (the Mets also have a $5 million option on him in 2005). Duquette explained that he liked the stability that Trachsel brings to the rotation, that he's had some success in New York, and that he expects Trachsel to be an important part of the Mets rotation in 2004.

I'm not a Mets fan, but I do attend and watch Met games periodically, so this is bad news. If you've never seen Steve Trachsel pitch, that's a good thing, as he's one of the least pleasant guys to watch in the majors currently. There are plenty of guys who work slowly...but I don't think there's anyone who reaches Trachsel-slow. With or without runners on base, he consistently takes a full 30 seconds between every pitch. Let's take a look at each of his starts this season and compare his average game time to the league's:

Trachsel starts this year (w/ game time, # of innings Trachsel pitched)

4/3 vs. Cubs - 2:53 (5 innings)
4/9 at Marlins - 2:49 (6 innings)
4/14 at Expos - 3:07 (6 innings)
4/19 vs. Marlins - 4:01 (5 innings)
4/25 vs. Diamondbacks - 2:53 (6 innings)
5/1 at Cardinals - 3:21 (5 innings)
5/7 vs. Dodgers - 2:28 (7 innings)
5/12 at Rockies - 3:16 (6 innings)
5/17 at Giants - 2:47 (8 innings)
5/23 at Braves - 3:05 (5.2 innings)
5/29 at Phillies - 2:59 (6.2 innings)
6/5 vs. Brewers - 2:46 (4 innings)
6/10 at Rangers - 3:19 (3.1 innings)
6/15 at Angels - 2:38 (9 innings)
6/20 vs. Yankees - 3:19 (7 innings)
6/25 vs. Marlins - 2:49 (7 innings)
6/30 vs. Expos - 2:45 (7 innings)
7/5 at Reds - 2:33 (6 innings)
7/10 vs. Phillies - 2:46 (1.2 innings)
7/17 at Braves - 2:26 (6 innings)
7/22 at Phillies - 4:01 (5.1 innings)
7/27 vs. Reds - 2:45 (5.1 innings)

His games are averaging just over 3 hours a piece, which really isn't as bad as I expected, but is still almost a quarter of an hour longer than the average game in the major leagues this year (the figure I have is 2:46, but it's a bit dated...if you know of where to get this kind of information updated, please let me know). As annoying as he is to watch, it'd be alright if he were a really effective pitcher or the Mets were a team that could effectively utilize a professional major league innings eater, which is exactly what Trachsel is.

Keeping him for this season (and signing him to his $8 million, 2 year deal in December of last year) was perfectly defensible coming off what was probably the best season of his career, as he posted a 3.37 ERA over 30 starts and 173.1 innings with an 11-11 record for the Mets. The team was still deluding itself into believing that it could contend for a playoff spot, and having the 2002 version of Steve Trachsel pitching relatively cheaply at the back end of a rotation would help in that pursuit. Clearly, the 2002 iteration is no longer with us, as despite his slightly improved record (he's at 9-7 this year so far), he's pitched significantly worse. The team is also totally out of contention, and while paying him an average of $4 million over these two seasons would've been acceptable if the team was good, it's no longer a wise investment. He's not helping the Mets do anything more than tread water, and expecting him to be worth the $5 million he's due next year and turn it around again at 33 seems pretty foolish to me. Right now, there are enough contending teams desperate for starting pitching that the Mets could no doubt ship him out of New York, and regardless of what they get in return, get out from under his contract for next season (or pick up a piece of the money owed and get more value coming back).

If the Cardinals call up and offer a total non-entity for Trachsel and insist that the Mets pick up his entire contract, it's defensible for Jim Duquette to decline. While he's occupying a roster spot, he's capable of going out every fifth day and giving the team a chance to win. That said, if the Mets can get either out from under his contract or acquire some players with value in return, they'd be foolish not to take advantage of such an opportunity.

posted by VZW Watcher at 3:49 PM -

 
Royals acquire Graeme Lloyd

Kansas City Royals get: Graeme Lloyd.
New York Mets get: Jeremy Hill.

The biggest problems the Royals are facing right now are their need for more offense and their bullpen. While you can certainly argue that their rotation is a candidate to become a major problem pretty quickly, the fact is that the team doesn't have a tremendous amount of resources, and they need to focus on fixing the things that they can reasonably expect to within their means. Getting Curtis Leskanic at the beginning of the month was an excellent start, and he's pitched even better than expected thus far (admittedly, in very limited work), allowing just three hits and three walks (no runs) while striking out 11 over 7.1 innings.

So that's one guy down. Unfortunately, even with the move of Jeremy Affeldt to relief this week, this is still a pretty bad bullpen. Optimally, you'd really like to be able to shift Affeldt back to the rotation anyway, so if you have a chance to acquire some relievers for a marginal cost, you do it with a division title within reach as the deadline approaches. While he's getting up in years, getting Graeme Lloyd for Jeremy Hill fits the bill. In making this trade, you realize Lloyd's limitations...he's a guy who can face just a couple of batters and get lefties out. This year for the Mets vs. lefties he's allowed a .222/.222/.267 line against in 45 plate appearances against, numbers the Royals would love to see from their bullpen. Not that it means a ton, but Lloyd's also got previous significant playoff experience, so should the Royals get there, he's got that going for him.

The cost to the Royals ends up being Jeremy Hill, a minor league reliever - the sixth that Mets' interim general manager has acquired since he took over (Royce Ring, Edwin Almonte, Kole Strayhorn, Joselo Diaz, Jason Anderson and now Hill). While he pitched in the majors a little bit last season, he's having a dreadful 2003 campaign at AAA Omaha, and basically has one pitch: a mid-to-high 90s fastball. While it's not the worst one pitch to have, it's likely he'll need a bit more to succeed at the major league level for any extended period of time. While he's almost 26 already, his age isn't as big a factor in his development as a pitcher as might be assumed, as this is only his third season as a pitcher following five years in the Royals system as a failed catching prospect.

Graeme Lloyd was pretty useless to the Mets at this point, as last place teams don't have much need for a one out lefty specialist, and I guess if Allard Baird called up Jim Duquette and offered this trade, the Mets had to take it. At the very least, the Mets acquire someone who could be of some value to them in the future as they give up a guy who would not have been. While there are a lot of guys in the Royals system I like a lot better than Hill, he's more valuable to the organization at this stage than Lloyd was. At the same time, the Royals weren't going to be helped in their divisional title push this year by Hill, and going after a legitimate major league reliever like Lloyd was the right move.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:10 AM -

 
Carl Everett to White Sox deal completed

Chicago White Sox get: Carl Everett.
Texas Rangers get: Anthony Webster, Frankie Francisco, Josh Rupe.

This deal obviously happened a little while ago (on July 1st, to be exact), and I took a look at the addition of Everett at that time. I began my comments like this:

It's hard to judge a trade when all parties involved aren't yet known, but I'll do so under the assumption that whatever the Rangers are getting in return for Carl Everett (at this point, known only as "two minor leaguers and future considerations") are no great shakes. If they are...and whenever it's announced, we'll take a look at that too...there's more to be said about this trade.

It ends up being three minor leaguers, and there is indeed more to be said about this trade. While I had admittedly never heard of either Frankie Francisco nor Josh Rupe before I read their names a few moments ago, Anthony Webster is a legitimate prospect. Drafted in the 15th round in the 2001 draft, he's reportedly a tremendous athlete and fantastic defensive centerfielder already at just 20 years old. After an excellent campaign last year in rookie ball, he's having a pretty successful run at low-A Kannapolis, posting a .289/.353/.361 line in 405 plate appearances. More specifically, he's got 18 doubles, a triple and two home runs, 20 stolen bases in 32 attempts, 31 walks and 58 strikeouts. While he's a way off, Webster has the makings of a pretty valuable centerfielder, and is a much better prospect than I had thought the Rangers would be acquiring in this trade. In fact, Kevin Goldstein's The Prospect Report (which is an absolutely terrific site, but I'm assuming most of you know that) had him rated as the #5 prospect in the White Sox system - and #100 in all of baseball - prior to this season. As well as Everett had produced for the Rangers in the first three months of the season, he wasn't going to be a part of the next good Texas team...and Anthony Webster may well be.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:01 AM -

 
Bubba Crosby recalled
Following last night's embarrassing loss to the Rockies (embarrassing mostly because they were made to look terrible by Darren Oliver), the Dodgers had a lengthy closed-door meeting and made some roster changes, sending down Daryle Ward and Steve Colyer and recalling Rodney Myers and Bubba Crosby. For a team with the much-ballyhooed offensive woes that the Dodgers have, Crosby's addition to the team (assuming he's actually going to get a chance to play) is a very welcome one.

When he was called up earlier in the season, he spent roughly three weeks with the team - but started just one game and got only nine at bats (and one hit). He joined the team originally when Brian Jordan was ailing (he's out now for the season)...and of course, the team had yet to acquire Jeromy Burnitz or Rickey Henderson. The promotion comes at a little bit of a strange time, given that the outfield has been improving lately with the relatively awesome month (.293/.369/.547, as compared to .260/.324/.444 over the full season-to-date) Shawn Green is having and the added production Burnitz and Henderson bring, although though the latter has yet to contribute much beyond his two home runs. I'm not surprised by the fact that he's been recalled so much as wondering why the team didn't think to give this a shot sooner, as Crosby has been destroying the AAA Pacific Coast League all season - in 76 games (277 at bats), he's got 12 homers, 24 doubles, 8 triples and 57 RBI, good for a .361/.410/.635 line along with 8 steals (and no caught stealings).

In order for the Dodgers to remain remotely competitive for the Wild Card (amazingly, they're only 4.5 games behind the Phillies), they clearly need to improve offensively, as has been documented all over the place. While their biggest holes are in the infield at this point (second base and shortstop are just dreadful), Crosby's an in-house potential fix that they should really give a clean shot at some regular playing time, and hopefully, that's just what they're doing.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:55 PM -

 
Lofton and Ramirez heading to Wrigley

Chicago Cubs get: Kenny Lofton, Aramis Ramirez.
Pittsburgh Pirates get: Jose Hernandez, Matt Bruback, a PTBNL.

A clear-cut win for the Cubs. Seriously hurting in centerfield since the loss of Corey Patterson for the season (they've been throwing Tom Goodwin out there on a regular basis), they finally acquire Dusty favorite Kenny Lofton, who helps the lineup significantly, giving them a real leadoff hitter. Of course, they've also been using Lenny Harris a disturbing amount at third base...something they'll no longer have to do with the arrival of the once-awesome but still young Aramis Ramirez.

And what do they give up to fill these two major holes? So far (there's still a player to be named in the deal), nothing of significance. Jose Hernandez was acquired about a month ago for Mark Bellhorn and hasn't been terribly effective since. While he's got some value when he's playing well, his numbers thus far in 2003 are pretty crappy (.227/.291/.359), and he certainly hasn't been pushing the Cubs in the direction they want to go. He'll likely man third base for the remainder of the season for the Pirates, but when the one year deal he signed with the Rockies this past offseason expires at the end of October, that'll be it for him in Pittsburgh.

So given that Hernandez isn't likely to stick around, who are the Pirates getting here? The answer is Matt Bruback, a borderline prospect coming from a team already plenty deep in young arms. The Cubs are paying Ramirez's salary (both this year and next, which takes him through the end of his contract), but I'm really surprised that Pirates GM Dave Littlefield couldn't mine something a little more valuable from what is a deep farm system, particularly on the pitching front. Anyhow, Bruback has spent this season-to-date at AAA Iowa, posting a 6-8 record in 20 games with a 3.96 ERA, striking out 90 over 125 innings. It seems conceivable that as the Pirates completely tear the team apart (with this trade, those of Scott Sauerbeck and Mike Williams, and the looming deals involving Brian Giles, Jason Kendall, Jeff Suppan and Kris Benson), Bruback could get a look at some starts pretty soon with the major league team.

While the dye on this trade hasn't been cast just yet, early indications are that the PTBNL isn't anyone of significance. Assuming that's the case, this is a pretty bad deal from the Pirates perspective, accomplishing little but taking Ramirez's salary off their books. The Cubs do a great job in filling some big holes and push themselves towards success both this season and in the future (as they now have a real third baseman). Ramirez has been disappointing over the past few seasons, but he's an improvement over Jose Hernandez right now and is a worthwhile risk going forward.
posted by VZW Watcher at 5:08 PM -

 
Harden tonight
Like just about everyone reading this I'm sure, I'm extremely excited about Rich Harden's major league debut tonight. I'm also really annoyed that the game, like so many other A's games, isn't being carried on MLB.TV for the rest of the country to watch. Even forgetting about Harden's debut, this game (vs. the Royals) features two of the best teams in the American League playing the opening game of a significant series. I've been very pleased with MLB's inaugural season of live, streaming games...but the lack of games of certain teams has to be addressed.
posted by VZW Watcher at 3:54 PM -

 
Ludwick to the Indians for Rodriguez, Spencer

Cleveland Indians get: Ryan Ludwick.
Texas Rangers get: Ricardo Rodriguez, Shane Spencer.

A little late on this, but here it is nevertheless. Almost everywhere I saw this trade mentioned, it's been with a headline involving the fact that Shane Spencer is changing teams. While he's almost certainly the most well-known of the three gentlemen in the deal (due to his postseason, nationally-televised experience), he's also far and away the least significant when it comes to evaluating what this trade means for the future...and even this season, as I don't know how much playing time he's going to get. Both the Indians and Rangers are completely out of the 2003 playoff hunt and are trying to put themselves in the best possible position going forward by acquiring young players to fill their needs. This is a trade that legitimitely helps both sides, which is a nice thing.

That said, I think the winner here is Texas. Ricardo Rodriguez looks like a legitimate major league starter (I'm not yet concerned about his poor 2003, where he's gone 3-9 with a 5.73 ERA over 81.2 innings and 15 starts), and while he's on the DL right now, he's just about to come off. The Rangers, as everyone knows, are absolutely desperate for pitching, so much so that their 6.03 team ERA is helped even by Rodriguez's crappy figure. While Ryan Ludwick is a decent prospect who will probably have a solid major league career, the Rangers have an awful lot of bats already and are trying to get plate appearances for young guys like Laynce Nix and Marcus Thames. The Indians have a bunch of outfielders already in Jody Gerut, Milton Bradley, Matt Lawton, Coco Crisp and sometimes Ben Broussard - so they're not exactly addressing a need - but they're also deep in young pitching and it certainly doesn't hurt to add a guy who can probably produce at a relatively high level from a corner outfield spot for the next few years very cheaply.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:36 AM -

 
Benitez to the Yankees

New York Yankees get: Armando Benitez.
New York Mets get: Jason Anderson, Anderson Garcia, Ryan Bicondoa.

I'm a little bit torn on this one. I strongly dislike Armando Benitez, both for his actions (specifically against the Yankees, most notably his drilling of Tino Martinez in 1998) and his mostly deserved reputation of pitching poorly in big games. He's failed spectacularly on several high-profile occasions (especially in the postseason), and he's not a guy I'd ever want pitching in a big spot if I could avoid it. That said, he throws extremely hard, is an intimidating presence coming out of the pen late in a game, and goes through periods where he's very effective. For those positive reasons, I assumed that there would be a substantial market for his services over the final few months of the season, as there will undoubtedly be when he becomes a free agent following the World Series, and that the price to pry him from the Mets would be a high one.

Looking at all he brings to the table, I was really hoping he'd end up in Boston. The Red Sox would have to give up some of what little minor league/young talent they possess, and they'd only get a inconsistent short reliever in return, and one who the Yankees have handled very well in the past. When I heard that the Yanks were seriously considering acquiring Benitez themselves, I was naturally concerned...mostly because of the cost I assumed would be necessary to get him from the Mets, who aren't known for doing their crosstown rivals any favors. I heard names like Brandon Claussen and Nick Johnson bandied about, guys who definitely aren't worth parting ways with for three and a half months (I hope) of Benitez.

Of course, this is a very different deal than one involving those guys would have been. Jason Anderson has been a good minor league pitcher, but hasn't been met with a tremendous amount of success at the major league level this year, when he's had a real chance to establish himself as a contributor on a contending team. I hear he's going to be assigned to AAA Norfolk by the Mets and used as a starter, and maybe he'll succeed in that role and be a factor for the Mets down the road. The fact of the matter is that Jason Anderson was never going to get a real opportunity to be used that way in the Yankee organization, and the team needs bullpen help now, not later. If he's an asset in a year or two for the Mets, I think the Yankees can live with that...Benitez, as much as so many of us in New York hate him, is a huge addition to the Yankee bullpen right now.

I really don't know much about either Anderson Garcia (who I hadn't heard of) or Ryan Bicondoa (who I had, but only because the Yanks signed him last year), but neither are big-time prospects. If Jim Duquette is able to unearth something in either of them, more power to him...but at this point, they're not much more than filler in a deal that is really Benitez for Anderson and two arms. Garcia throws hard and has posted good numbers thus far, but he's 22 (not that he's too old to progress and contribute just yet) and playing in low-A ball. Bicondoa is older (24) and has had a disappointing year at high-A Tampa after a nice season with the Staten Island Yankees in 2002. I guess it's nice to have young pitchers in your system, and if you accumulate enough, some are bound to work out...but both are a long way from contributing at Shea.

It's easy to be bummed about this from a Yankee fan's perspective, because we hate Benitez. He hurt our Tino, acted like a baby about it, and has failed against us in big spots. But the Tino incident is now six years ago, and the bullpen badly needs help now. Jason Anderson wasn't going to be the solution, and while parts like Dan Miceli are adequate as back end guys, it's not good to have to rely on them in higher leverage spots. Mariano Rivera is still on the team and will pitch in save situations...Benitez is going to be used as a set-up man, and we'll have to cross our fingers and hope that he's able to handle it and perform well. The money he's making through the remainder of the season really isn't a factor (I think it's $2.7 million, but the Yanks can afford it), and at the end of the year, the team should offer him arbitration and either take the compensatory picks or have a high-priced set-up man for 2004. No matter what, the Yankees didn't give much up here and have improved the team by shoring up its greatest weakness...so it's a job well done by Brian Cashman and the rest of the front office.
posted by VZW Watcher at 3:34 PM -

 
Urbina to Florida for three good minor leaguers

Florida Marlins get: Ugueth Urbina.
Texas Rangers get: Adrian Gonzalez, Will Smith, Ryan Snare.

As I mentioned recently in this space, I've become somewhat enamored with the Marlins in the past few months. They've got a talented pitching staff (led by the awesome young duo of Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett) and a good young offense that includes the likes of Mike Lowell, Pudge Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, Derrek Lee and, my favorite, 20-year old Miguel Cabrera. They've been playing pretty well despite the painful loss of their ace starter entering the season (A.J. Burnett), and have gotten themselves into the Wild Card hunt despite playing in one of the tougher divisions in baseball. Aside from their obvious ability to play and contend on some level now, one of the big reasons to buy into this team is their youth. Not only are there really young guys contributing at the major league level presently, but the Marlins' minor league system has a bunch of prospects who should be ready to help at the major league level within the next few seasons.

And then they go and do something like this. Perhaps I was foolish to put any faith at all in a Loria-owned enterprise, but I really don't see how this makes sense for anyone in the Marlins' organization. I'm not sure how much of Ugueth Urbina's contract the Rangers are picking up, but it doesn't really matter - they could be paying the entire thing and this deal would still be a major loss for the Marlins. Usually when you hear about a trade billed as "star for X number of minor leaguers", there's a name or two I recognize and then I've got to dash off and find out who the other players are. Like most of you I suspect, I've heard of all three prospects headed to Texas in this instance, but in case you'd like a quick rundown of who they are...here it is:

Ryan Snare is a 24-year old lefty starter who came over from Cincinnati (for whom he was a second round pick in 2000) last year with Juan Encarnacion and Crappy Brother Guerrero in the deal for Ryan Dempster. He's been pitching at AA Carolina this season, compiling a 5-4 record with a 3.67 ERA in 18 starts there. Over 103 innings thus far, he's allowed 98 hits while walking 37 and striking out 77. Basically, he's a middle-of-the-road starting pitching prospect who probably didn't have a tremendous future ahead of him in the Marlins organization and will benefit by moving to one with serious pitching needs. He's probably not a tremendous loss for Florida, but he's pitched reasonably well at every level thus far and will likely be given opportunities to succeed with the Rangers.

Will Smith is a humorously-named 21-year old outfield prospect who's spent the season as Snare's teammate with the Mudcats. He's been on the disabled list for much of the year (but he's back now), but he's played in 34 games (136 plate appearances) and hit .293/.346/.374 with five doubles, a triple and a homer so far. He's still young and performing reasonably well at AA, so there's no reason to believe that if he develops as expected, Smith can't be at least a major league bit player at some point within the next few years.

And Adrian Gonzalez is the stud of the deal. The top overall pick in the 2000 draft, he's a not-yet-21-year old first baseman who, admittedly, has had a disappointing season and been demoted to AA Carolina after a poor showing at AAA Albuquerque. That said, he's coming off two pretty good years in the organization and has done a nice job in his return engagement at AA this year (hitting .307/.368/.409 in 152 plate appearances over 36 games), and remember...he's only 20. There's no evident power to speak of yet, but as with many young players, he's got projectable moderate power, as some of the doubles he's been hitting turn into homers over the next few years. He's been passed on the organizational depth chart by mashing first base prospect Jason Stokes...but with neither ready to help immediately, there's really no urgency to act on any kind of perceived logjam just yet. There's an awful lot of potential here, and to give him up in a deal like this seems awfully premature. I read an article in the New York Post in the past few days that indicated that the Mets were asking the Marlins for Gonzalez in exchange for Armando Benitez...straight up...and I thought the Marlins would be getting the shaft in that deal. Urbina and Benitez are very similar in terms of what they bring to a team, I think, and it's pretty clear to me that the Marlins got screwed.

I don't see where the Marlins needed bullpen help anywhere near this desperately, and to get Urbina they sacrifice three young players who could well see the major leagues to stay in some capacity in the next few years. While I realize there's a lot of speculation built into that statement, all three minor leaguers are guys with significant upside who were on the map for the Marlins in the future, and who are now gone for a guy who won't even pitch 50 innings for the team. Terrific deal for John Hart, and awful job by the Marlins. This isn't even a real good move for the present (the potential Wild Card chase), and is terrible for the future. As with any deal involving minor leaguers, we'll be able to more fully evaluate this trade in a few years, but it's pretty clearly in the Rangers' favor right now.
posted by VZW Watcher at 7:49 AM -

 
Observations on Jason Davis & Sidney Ponson
I watched two excellent pitching performances tonight. The first was by big (6'6"), hard throwing 23-year old Indian Jason Davis vs. the Yankees. He finished up having allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 6 hits while walking two and striking out two over six innings, but he pitched quite a bit better than that line would indicate. While his control appeared to leave him at times leaving him behind in the count, he had excellent stuff tonight and made things tough on one of the best offensive teams in baseball. He's 6-6 this season (no decision tonight, the Indians would ultimately win 3-2 in the 10th) with a 4.60 ERA, but that's taking into account an April which saw him accumulate a 6.67 ERA over 27 innings. I shouldn't put too much stock in what I saw in one start and I'll have to go back through the MLB.TV archives and watch some of his other outings, but I was really impressed tonight. I should also point out that he's got the best right handed pickoff move I've ever seen, as he's got ridiculously quick feet. Alfonso Soriano was picked off twice tonight - once at first, once at second - and while he fell asleep on the pickoff at second base, it's fair to say that Davis has a legitimately great move.

The second fine performance I was fortunate enough to see was by Oriole righty Sidney Ponson. I was well aware that he's been having a fine year (now 12-5, 3.64), but I hadn't yet seen him this season. His name's been bandied about in trade rumors quite a bit recently, and now I know why. Being a Yankee fan and watching a lot of their games, I've seen Ponson several times over the past few seasons, but he looked like a completely different pitcher tonight. Against the Mariner lineup - certainly no slouch - he completely controlled the strike zone and got ahead of virtually every hitter. Tonight's effort was a complete game, accomplished in only 89 pitches...and only 23 balls, four of which were in a semi-intentional/pitch around four-pitch walk of Ben Davis, the only guy who really hit him tonight. As with (Jason) Davis, I look forward to digging into the archives to see more of the work he's done this season, but he was extremely impressive this evening, and would be a nice fit on a number of contending teams.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:19 AM -

 
32nd man vote results
Either Frank Thomas or Jason Giambi should have won this vote - they're both much better players, even according to Varitek's mother - but I guess I can live with Jason Varitek, who is legitimately having an excellent year, because Giambi is going to be there anyway with the subtraction of Mike Sweeney from the roster due to injury. The thing I'm most disappointed about is the last place finish of Luis Castillo in the NL vote. The Marlins are a hot team right now...I'm certainly enjoying watching them every opportunity I get...and Castillo's been a big part of it. He hits second in their lineup behind Juan Pierre, but he'd be a terrific leadoff hitter for just about any team, combining speed (14 steals this year, which is actually way down for him) and the ability to get on base (.382 OBP this season, .366 lifetime). He's even added a bit of power to his game this season, slugging .419 with 6 homers (his career highs for a full season are .388 and 2).

Geoff Jenkins is a damn good hitter having a fine season. I don't quite understand how he was able to win this vote, as these things are generally more a popularity contest than anything, but he's not a bad choice...certainly better than Kenny Lofton or Benito Santiago would have been. For the purposes of practical roster composition (which should be important, if we are to believe that the game is being taken seriously by those involved this year), the NL outfield is absolutely stacked, so the final player should probably play a different position. As much as I like Marcus Giles, he's struggled recently (he hit just .234/.308/.351 in June), and while he's paired with Jose Vidro at second, it looks to me like the weakest position for the NL team. For what it's worth (and realizing that that's nothing), I think Luis Castillo should be an All-Star.
posted by VZW Watcher at 6:17 PM -

 
Giambi and the triangle/32nd man voting
We're getting an awful lot of hits from people looking for information on the Jason Giambi segment on Sportscenter that featured him playing the triangle (the instrument, in case there's any confusion on that). Unfortunately, we don't have a clip or anything like that (just a post by Dan on July 4th, which I guess contains more information than you're likely to find elsewhere). This isn't directly related, but if you're here for Giambi information, please consider voting for him in the 32nd man vote (the ballot is easily accessible at mlb.com). Sure, the All-Star Game is probably going to suck, the selection process is bad and the fact that it's going to have an impact on the World Series is very unfortunate, but it's going to happen and it's in contending American League fans' best interests to get the best players represented on the AL team.

Right now, Jason Varitek is in the lead. I like Varitek and he's having a real nice season, but there are already two catchers on the roster (admittedly, one is worse than him - Ramon Hernandez - and should've been left off in his place, but that's beside the point), so the focus has to be on getting the best hitter, regardless of position. I'm convinced that Giambi's the best at this point in his career of the five guys available to be added to the roster and that he should certainly have made the team in the first round of selections, along with fellow 32nd man candidate Frank Thomas (who is actually having a marginally better year-to-date than Giambi). So if you've got a minute, consider going to mlb.com in the next day (voting ends tomorrow at some point) and cast a vote or two or three for Giambi...or Frank Thomas, I'd take either.
posted by VZW Watcher at 4:47 PM -