Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

 
Urbina to Florida for three good minor leaguers

Florida Marlins get: Ugueth Urbina.
Texas Rangers get: Adrian Gonzalez, Will Smith, Ryan Snare.

As I mentioned recently in this space, I've become somewhat enamored with the Marlins in the past few months. They've got a talented pitching staff (led by the awesome young duo of Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett) and a good young offense that includes the likes of Mike Lowell, Pudge Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, Derrek Lee and, my favorite, 20-year old Miguel Cabrera. They've been playing pretty well despite the painful loss of their ace starter entering the season (A.J. Burnett), and have gotten themselves into the Wild Card hunt despite playing in one of the tougher divisions in baseball. Aside from their obvious ability to play and contend on some level now, one of the big reasons to buy into this team is their youth. Not only are there really young guys contributing at the major league level presently, but the Marlins' minor league system has a bunch of prospects who should be ready to help at the major league level within the next few seasons.

And then they go and do something like this. Perhaps I was foolish to put any faith at all in a Loria-owned enterprise, but I really don't see how this makes sense for anyone in the Marlins' organization. I'm not sure how much of Ugueth Urbina's contract the Rangers are picking up, but it doesn't really matter - they could be paying the entire thing and this deal would still be a major loss for the Marlins. Usually when you hear about a trade billed as "star for X number of minor leaguers", there's a name or two I recognize and then I've got to dash off and find out who the other players are. Like most of you I suspect, I've heard of all three prospects headed to Texas in this instance, but in case you'd like a quick rundown of who they are...here it is:

Ryan Snare is a 24-year old lefty starter who came over from Cincinnati (for whom he was a second round pick in 2000) last year with Juan Encarnacion and Crappy Brother Guerrero in the deal for Ryan Dempster. He's been pitching at AA Carolina this season, compiling a 5-4 record with a 3.67 ERA in 18 starts there. Over 103 innings thus far, he's allowed 98 hits while walking 37 and striking out 77. Basically, he's a middle-of-the-road starting pitching prospect who probably didn't have a tremendous future ahead of him in the Marlins organization and will benefit by moving to one with serious pitching needs. He's probably not a tremendous loss for Florida, but he's pitched reasonably well at every level thus far and will likely be given opportunities to succeed with the Rangers.

Will Smith is a humorously-named 21-year old outfield prospect who's spent the season as Snare's teammate with the Mudcats. He's been on the disabled list for much of the year (but he's back now), but he's played in 34 games (136 plate appearances) and hit .293/.346/.374 with five doubles, a triple and a homer so far. He's still young and performing reasonably well at AA, so there's no reason to believe that if he develops as expected, Smith can't be at least a major league bit player at some point within the next few years.

And Adrian Gonzalez is the stud of the deal. The top overall pick in the 2000 draft, he's a not-yet-21-year old first baseman who, admittedly, has had a disappointing season and been demoted to AA Carolina after a poor showing at AAA Albuquerque. That said, he's coming off two pretty good years in the organization and has done a nice job in his return engagement at AA this year (hitting .307/.368/.409 in 152 plate appearances over 36 games), and remember...he's only 20. There's no evident power to speak of yet, but as with many young players, he's got projectable moderate power, as some of the doubles he's been hitting turn into homers over the next few years. He's been passed on the organizational depth chart by mashing first base prospect Jason Stokes...but with neither ready to help immediately, there's really no urgency to act on any kind of perceived logjam just yet. There's an awful lot of potential here, and to give him up in a deal like this seems awfully premature. I read an article in the New York Post in the past few days that indicated that the Mets were asking the Marlins for Gonzalez in exchange for Armando Benitez...straight up...and I thought the Marlins would be getting the shaft in that deal. Urbina and Benitez are very similar in terms of what they bring to a team, I think, and it's pretty clear to me that the Marlins got screwed.

I don't see where the Marlins needed bullpen help anywhere near this desperately, and to get Urbina they sacrifice three young players who could well see the major leagues to stay in some capacity in the next few years. While I realize there's a lot of speculation built into that statement, all three minor leaguers are guys with significant upside who were on the map for the Marlins in the future, and who are now gone for a guy who won't even pitch 50 innings for the team. Terrific deal for John Hart, and awful job by the Marlins. This isn't even a real good move for the present (the potential Wild Card chase), and is terrible for the future. As with any deal involving minor leaguers, we'll be able to more fully evaluate this trade in a few years, but it's pretty clearly in the Rangers' favor right now.
posted by VZW Watcher at 7:49 AM -