Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

 
Schilling to the Red Sox, potentially

If I'm not mistaken, it was reported earlier in this offseason that when the Yankees made inquiries regarding acquiring Curt Schilling, they were told that the Diamondbacks would require both Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano and additional prospects. While I'm assuming the natural recoil to that request on the part of the Yankees helped them to realize how ridiculous and unrealistic it was, if this trade goes through, they've settled for a hell of a lot less here. I understand that the Diamondbacks are trying to move salary so they can address other needs, but this is still a pretty poor return on a top-tier player. It's tough for me to believe that if Arizona went to the Yankees and told them they had this deal on the table from the Red Sox that they couldn't do a bit better. For whatever reason, the players involved in this trade appear to have been agreed upon, so it's solely dependent on Schilling's approval (and the Red Sox giving him the extension he requires) at this point.

Casey Fossum's name has been thrown around in trade talks for the last couple of years, and while he's still got promise, he's far from a sure thing. By the beginning of the 2004 season, Fossum will be 26 years old and has thrown a total of 230 major innings over three seasons, posting a 4.42 ERA while allowing 239 hits, walking 84 batters and striking out 190. His stock was probably highest after the 2002 season in which he posted his best major league numbers, but that's been tempered a bit by his struggles in 19 games (14 starts) in 2003. His strikeout rate (almost one per inning in 2002) declined to just 63 over 79 innings, walking 34 and allowing 82 hits and nine home runs. He may yet have a nice career, but this doesn't look to me like a guy you'd be shooting for as the centerpiece of deal that's sending a pitcher of Curt Schilling's caliber the other way.

As for the other players involved...Brandon Lyon is a guy the Red Sox picked up off the scrap heap before last season, and while he had a decent year in Boston rebounding from an awful 2002 in Toronto, he can't be considered more than a back of the bullpen pitcher based on his career-to-date. Minor league centerfielder Michael Goss is also reportedly heading to Arizona, in organization only...he's apparently very fast, but doesn't have much else going for him, including any serious major league prospects. If you're interested, he hit .245 in the Sally League last year with no power as a 22-year old.

Though Fossum is the better known guy and ready to step into the Arizona rotation immediately, the key to this trade from the Diamondbacks' standpoint may be Jorge de la Rosa. Considered by many one of the best pitching prospects in the Boston system, de la Rosa will be just 23 at the beginning of the 2004 season and will likely begin at AAA, where he finished 2003 (with five starts at Pawtucket). He's struck out close to a batter an inning at pretty much every level thus far, and posted a 6-3 record at AA Portland last year in 22 games (20 starts), striking out 102 and walking 36 while allowing 87 hits over 99.2 innings. I'm no prospect guru, but I'd have to assume that if he continues to pitch well at AAA (as he did in limited action last year), he'll have a shot at the majors as early as next season.

Upon first hearing word of this trade, names like Hanley Ramirez and Kelly Shoppach were being bandied about, and that made sense. Those are the kind of prospects that I'd expect a team to have to give up to get a guy like Schilling, especially when I'd heard demands for players the caliber of solid, proven major league players like Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano made. But the Red Sox have somehow managed to work this trade out while only moving two real prospects, one of whom is old enough that I'm not even sure the tag applies anymore. And does trading Fossum, when you get a guy like Schilling in return, even hurt much? While Fossum is obviously cheaper, he's unlikely to ever have a season like those Schilling has posted in recent years...and cost doesn't appear to be Boston's concern anyway. Much like the Yankees when they trade away someone like Juan Rivera (I realize they haven't traded him, but he's a prime example of an older prospect they've got), it's a low-risk gamble...if Fossum becomes something special in a couple of years, a) he's not far from 30 and b) the Red Sox can go out and sign or trade for someone else to bolster their rotation if circumstances demand it. Schilling's a much better bet than Fossum right now, and that's what matters.

From a Boston perspective, this trade makes oodles of sense. You give up very little for one of the best pitchers in the game and establish a rotation with the potential to be really, really dominant. I've been trying to think of a way to spin so that the Red Sox ultimately come out poorly, which is of course, what I'd love to see...but this is just a terrific move. It's going to be essential from Schilling's perspective that a contract extension be worked out, probably two or three years at something in the neighborhood of $12-15 million per. While that's unquestionably a lot of money and limits options in some other areas, Schilling's one of the few older pitchers you could reasonably shell out eight figures to. Naturally, a championship in any of these three or four years (the 2004 season plus those in the extension) would more than make the contract pay for itself. The only thing I question is what might need to be done to convince Schilling to relocate (as he's living comfortably in Arizona, or so it sounds), and by that I mean hiring a manager he's got connections to in Terry Francona. Here in Boston, I've gotten the impression that the Red Sox were leaning towards doing this anyway, so maybe it's a non-issue...but it seems to me that there might be more desirable, qualified candidates out there, and you certainly wouldn't want this decision to be made because of a potential player's preference. But what do I know? (I am all for the Red Sox hiring Francona, by the way.)

It's been reported that there may be an additional element to this trade which would see Richie Sexson sent from Milwaukee to Arizona in exchange for something cheap, if we know the Brewers at all. It's unclear exactly how this potential deal would affect that one, other than giving the Diamondbacks some reason to make this trade, clearing out some salary for Sexson by moving Schilling. We can address that if and when there are further developments, but for now, this is (potentially, assuming the parties can come to an agreement) a huge win for the Red Sox and a big step towards a championship they weren't too far from last year.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:23 AM -