Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

 
Rey Sanchez to the Mets for a year
I've not seen terms disclosed yet, but this looks like a pretty good signing for the Mets, who are well on their way to a pretty solid offseason (despite the inexcusable loss of Alfonzo). Rey Sanchez, as it's been documented in many places, is what Rey Ordonez should have been...a tremendous defensive shortstop (and second baseman, in Sanchez's case) who can't hit a lick and has no secondary offensive skills. That said, his defense is good enough to keep him in the major leagues and is considerably better than what the Mets got from Rey Ordonez last season, at far less cost. If Jose Reyes proves to be ready at some point this year, he can serve as a mentor as he enters the majors. As much as I like this signing, I still don't understand why they didn't sign Jose Hernandez. How competitive can the market be for him? Can anyone see him signing a deal for more than $4-5 million a year? Chances are you could sign him to something like a 2 year, $10 million contract, use him at short this year until you're comfortable with Jose Reyes and then move him to third, where he'd be fine. How is this guy not yet signed? He was the best shortstop in the National League last year pretty conclusively. With none of the great AL shortstops crossing the pond, he's likely to be again if he stays in the NL. While teams are probably (and legitimately, to some degree) concerned about strikeout totals, it's difficult for me to believe that a player of his caliber and versatility seems to have so few suitors. Where are the Dodgers, who could desperately use a bat? The Mets would be a substantially better team with Hernandez at third as well, it remains to be seen whether or not they choose to go that route (or perhaps sign Bill Mueller). I'd like to see it happen.
posted by VZW Watcher at 6:42 PM -

 
Merry Christmas and Happy Boxing Day. I feel bad not having posted in several days, but I've been away skiing (poor me) and it's Christmas time...even though I don't celebrate it, it's worthy of a few days off. And we're back. Again, keep hitting the dump.

Yanks sign Contreras at 4 years, $32 million
I really hope Jose Contreras is the goods. As a Yankee fan, I was really hoping to see him go to Boston and bomb, but I guess now I have to root for him. I'm pretty leery of foreign players in general (less so those from Japan, simply because we have better ways of forecasting their performance in the MLB), and pitchers in particular I think are dangerous. While we've obviously seen a tremendous amount of success from some Cuban pitchers, with El Duque being a great example. If this means that the Yankees lose both Duque and Clemens (which it likely does), I think it's a bit of a risk. And one that comes at significant cost. In an offseason where the team was supposedly trying to pare payroll, the addition of the expensive Contreras flies in the face of that stated objective. Which is okay, but I don't want to see the team cutting salary at the expense of talent later this season (or offseason), because the Yanks do in fact have a pretty decent staff even without Contreras.
posted by VZW Watcher at 11:07 PM -

 
We play a little catch-up again, in hopes that the regular daily updates are resuming right now.

The Millwood debacle
Atlanta Braves get: Johnny Estrada
Philadelphia Phillies get: Kevin Millwood

Unbelievable. As people much wiser than I have already commented, this is one of the worst trades in terms of talent ever. There's really no way around that. It's disgusting, it undermines competition and really, it should be disallowed by the Commissioner, if there's any way to do that. Not that there's any chance of it. John Schuerholz can complain all he wants, and he's certainly done so. But this is a result of a really bad job by him in terms of managing his team's budget. That's on him. How did the Braves, owned by an incredibly wealthy entity, turn into this? Johnny Estrada has virtually no value as a major league player, the Braves are squandering millions of dollars left and right (Vinny Castilla being the best example), and they could easily have gotten a hell of a lot more for one of the better pitchers in baseball, one would think. This is nothing short of a travesty, and I really don't care about Schuerholz's accomplishments to date (which are debatable to begin with)...he should lose his job over this.

Cliff Floyd signs with the Mets, $26 million over four years
As we've stated on this site previously, it's obvious that the biggest issue the Mets needed to address this offseason was improving their offense, especially in the outfield. While this doesn't make the Met lineup great, it sure helps a lot. Position for position, with the removal of Rey Ordonez (even if Russ Johnson is the replacement there) and the addition of Floyd, this is simply a far more dangerous team offensively. The Mets can sandwich Floyd between two Hall-of-Famers in Roberto Alomar and Mike Piazza and try to milk him for all he's worth when he's on the field. Additionally, he's very capable of spelling Mo Vaughn at first, providing the team with some added versatility. I had thought that the Glavine signing would prohibit this move, but I'm real glad I was wrong about that. I'm not a Met fan per se, but as a New Yorker who has been to the Eyesore more than a few times in my 20 years, it'll be nice to see a legitimately improved product out there. The next step would be to now make a serious push to sign Jose Hernandez, but it remains to be seen if the Mets will do much of anything further, even though they should have some money to burn (as they can spend elsewhere the money they had alotted for Norihiro Nakamura, who apparently is staying in Japan). We'll see, but this a much better team than it was yesterday. And it'd be that much better with Edgardo Alfonzo, but that train has sailed.

Godzilla comes to the Yankees, $21 million for three years
I'm excited. As Rob Neyer points out in his comments on this signing (available at the above link), at the very worst we can reasonably expect given his career in Japan, the man known as Godzilla will be a major improvement over what the Yanks were throwing out there last season. And of course, there's the opportunity for him to be a lot better. There's no question that Hideki Matsui has really good power, as evidenced by his 50 home runs a year ago and very high slugging percentage. And he's left-handed. And he's going to play half his games in a ballpark with a real short porch in right field. Of course you've got the risk that he's going to bomb, but there's very little reason to believe that'll be the case. Pitching is pitching, and while what he faced in Japan certainly isn't on the same level as what he'll see here, what's that difference worth? This is the best hitter in what is probably the second best baseball league in the world...his time has come, his time is now, and I'm pleased that he's coming to New York, he's going to help that lineup immensely.

As always, we strongly encourage our readers here to take a look at our father site, The Dump. Enjoy.
posted by VZW Watcher at 12:39 AM -

 
Sorry about all that procrastinating. We're now back and hope to return to regular daily updates concerning events roughly as they happen. Again, we strongly encourage you to check out our main site over at the dump, where we've made significant strides in the last day. We hope you enjoy our new content over there and check back as there will be much more to come in the next few weeks. Okay, now backtracking...on to baseball.

The Ortiz-Moss Swap
Atlanta Braves get: Russ Ortiz
San Francisco Giants get: Damian Moss

Great deal for the Giants, who are really improving their team. Russ Ortiz has been a solid pitcher for the Giants since he broke into the majors, but he's benefitted an awful lot from pitching half his games in Pac Bell. He's also making a lot more money than the younger, left-handed Australian Moss, who showed quite a bit for the Braves last year. While I realize the goal here for the Braves is not only to get a competent starter but also to bring in a name (to replace Tom Glavine and the possibly departing Greg Maddux), I think they could've gotten a better return for Moss if they were interested in trading him. That said, even though I like this trade from their perspective, I think the Giants could've done better as well. Blue Jays GM JP Ricciardi had indicated he was interested in Russ Ortiz, and he's got a wealth of talented young players (like Orlando Hudson, who was mentioned in trade talks). Whether or not the Giants, who are acquiring second basemen left and right, needed a guy like Hudson is a different story, but they probably could've swindled some sucker GM into giving them a bit more for their ace. The Giants clearly win this trade though, as they cut salary (to help compensate for recent signings which have helped them a lot) and don't downgrade a whole lot in the talent department.

Paul Byrd signs with Braves (by Dan)
When you know your girlfriend is going to leave you, you start doing weird things. You remember all the good times that she provided from cooking breakfast to keeping things clean to always being wild in the sack. But she has to go, it wasn't working out. So when you know she's out the door, you try to bring in near suitable replacements to try and recreate the thunder and chemistry that once was. Greg Maddux was the perfect girlfriend. He performed regularly and consistently, was always reliable to relieve stress, and never went out and faked it.

But now it seems that Maddux is headed elsewhere, off into the wild blue yonder to court suitors who know that they are seeing perfection while you are left with the girl who dumped you a few years ago. Paul Byrd is the ex who was good elsewhere for a few years, and even an all-star in a different lifetime. Plus, the Braves were desperate. Paul Byrd was the ace of a Kansas City staff and put up 17 wins. I have a lot of faith in Leo Mazzone to work with Byrd and Hampton and Ortiz to make them reputable.

If you are the Braves, you have to accept the fact that your top three starters of three years ago are gone and it is time to rebuild. While the front and back of the rotation will come from the system (Millwood and maybe Marquis), the beef comes from top starters of other teams. Hampton, Byrd and Ortiz have shown that they can win 10-15 games and with Mazzone they can easily eclipse those numbers.

The weird part of this deal is in the formation of the contract. He is guaranteed three million dollars this year and then has an option for seven million dollars for the season after this. While that is a lot of money, it could work out very well if the Braves end up winning games and he wants to stay for a lot of money. That money hopefully will be better spent than the ridiculous clause in Smoltz' contract that says he'll get paid more if he starts games.

For the Braves, this move makes sense, they needed to bring in a starter capable of winning games. The aren't paying that much this year, and he's a top starter who is only being asked to be a number three. For Byrd, he gets the bucks, gets to move back home, and gets to work with the best pitching coach in the league while being thrust into a winning solution.
posted by VZW Watcher at 8:15 AM -

 
Sorry about the delays, both Dan and I are now in transport on the way home from school. We hope to get the recent developments of the last two days later on, including: the Ortiz-Moss deal, the Paul Byrd signing, the fact that the Cardinals will have a Matheny-Girardi combo catching for them, and a few rumors that are circulating.

Thanks for bearing with us, and as always, please check out the main site, the dump. we've done some redesign work and the content should be coming hard and heavy now that we'll have some time on our hands.
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:14 AM -

 
Heard last night from Kevin Goldstein over theprospectreport.com and would just like to restate what a terrific site that is. His top 10 prospects in each system are a valuable resource both for the knowledgable veteran in the world of prospects and the casual fan who just wants to know who's coming up in his/her favorite team's system. As another piece of business, I know Dan's been away for a few days now, but he's in good health and should return on Wednesday. In the meantime, I'll do what I can to cover the load by myself. I think there's only one really big piece of news that I missed covering in yesterday's entry, which was:

Alfonzo to the Giants for $26 million over 4 years
As is being noted (because it's extremely obvious) all over the baseball world, the Giants are assembling quite a lineup around Barry Bonds. In acquiring both Alfonzo and Ray Durham to go along with Rich Aurilia, the Giants now boast a few guys who are capable of holding down a place in the top few spots in the order and able to get on base consistently for Bonds. While it'd be nice to imagine them retaining Jeff Kent as well to give them further protection, it sounds like the signing of Alfonzo really does spell the end of Kent's tenure in San Francisco. It's hard for me to believe that, even in the current buyer's market, there's not a team willing to pony up for the services of a player on the level of Jeff Kent. He'll sure get less than he would have a few years ago wherever he ends up, but he's going to be a rich(er) man. That said, if he's interested in being part of the best offense in the National League next year, all he has to do is accept arbitration. I don't know why there's any confusion about how the team would be oriented, should Kent return. You'd have Alfonzo at third for sure. You'd have Durham playing mostly center and occasionally second base when Kent is playing first. And that's it. Sure when Snow's contract expires you can move Kent to first base permanently and you worry about filling your choice of voids (third base, center field or second base) then. Back to Alfonzo for a moment...why couldn't the Mets put this kind of offer together? Alfonzo was clearly (in the papers, anyway) upset about having to leave New York, so there's an implication there he might have accepted even less to return. How the Mets couldn't come up with $6 million for an excellent offensive player like Alfonzo, as bad as they are, is beyond me. Great signing by the Giants, who have really improved this offseason.

Stanton to the Mets for 3 years, $9 million
This is an embarrassment for the Yankees. While going to the Red Sox would be worse, this is the next worst thing and really gives me cause for concern. I know Mike Stanton isn't the best reliever in baseball and perhaps his contributions to the Yankee teams he's been a part of have even been overplayed to some degree. But the guy can pitch high-leverage innings effectively and quite simply, is worth $3 million a year to a team like the Yankees. I really see no justification for signing Chris Hammond instead of retaining Stanton when the difference ultimately turned out to be less than a million dollars and an extra year. Is there any evidence that Stanton's getting too old? That he can't pitch effectively anymore? I don't see any, as the last two seasons were among the best of his career. He's got a terrific track record. And Chris Hammond? He's got no track record. Mike Stanton is a far more reliable investment and he's the guy that I as a Yankee fan wanted to see as the top lefty out of the bullpen for a few more years. As teams around baseball get smarter and the luxury tax starts banging even harder on the Yankees' door, there's going to be a real need to spend money as effectively as possible. This is a poor choice by the Yankees' brass, one I hope is not indicative of the decisions going forward in this offseason.
posted by VZW Watcher at 4:22 AM -

 
Unlike earlier in the day, there's now a massive amount to report on...I guess people are getting tired of waiting around for Mr. Minaya.

The four team deal
While I've seen conflicting reports about one part of this trade, the principles are clear.

Oakland Athletics get: Erubiel Durazo
Arizona Diamondbacks get: Elmer Dessens, $1 million
Toronto Blue Jays get: Jason Arnold (and John-Ford Griffin?)
Cincinnati Reds get: Felipe Lopez

As one could probably guess given the trading partners here, the A's and Jays win. Erubiel Durazo should step in at first base in Oakland and be a tremendous success, he's exactly the right guy for that team and someone who GM Billy Beane has apparently been coveting for years. Quite frankly, I'm very surprised that all it ultimately cost to get him was Elmer Dessens (likely coming off his career-best season) and some cash. The Jays, assuming they get both guys do well again here. GM JP Ricciardi is well on his way to assembling a fine minor league system, and getting a projected (potential, of course) number one pitcher like Jason Arnold is another step in that direction. The fact that Arnold and Griffin seem to have been traded together again (they were packaged to Oakland from the Yankees in the Weaver-Pena deal as well) is a bit odd, but they're two real good prospects. The Diamondbacks get Dessens and cash, and while it'll give them a third starter behind the Johnson-Schilling monster, I'm fairly skeptical about him. While there's no question he was a very good pitcher last year, there's little evidence that he's going to be able to repeat that performance. This is a guy who will be 31 next season and has only one really good year under his belt. His sparkling ERA from a year ago (3.03) is at least in part due to 10 unearned runs, without which he was a slightly less spectacular 3.54. I don't question that he'll be a valuable member of the Diamondback rotation...I'm sure he will...but this is the prize they received for the heavily sought after Erubiel Durazo...I just think they could've done better. And then there's Felipe Lopez. While his major league numbers aren't particularly impressive, there's quite a bit to like about Lopez. He's young, already has a fair amount of major league experience already under his belt and should be able to get some playing time in Cincinnati. Given that Elmer Dessens fell into the Reds' lap, they don't give up too much and bring in a guy who has a lot of potential. So A's and Jays win, but this is a deal that helps everyone involved.

Giambi to the Red Sox
Boston Red Sox get: Jeremy Giambi
Philadelphia Phillies get: Josh Hancock

Josh Hancock's a decent pitching prospect, but this is a great deal for the Red Sox (everyone seems to be in agreement on this). It didn't take a genius to figure out that Giambi and Boston's new regime would be a perfect fit, and if this is all it took to bring him over, all the better. I'm a bit concerned as a Yankee fan, because with addition of Giambi and the probable subtraction of Shea Hillenbrand in the coming days, this is looking like a really dangerous lineup, especially if, as expected, Cliff Floyd accepts arbitration. While I'm sure the Red Sox aren't done yet, there's already plenty of reason for Yankee fans like myself to be worried. The word is that the Sox also have a leg up on the Yanks in acquiring either Javier Vazquez or Bartolo Colon from the Expos, which would be that much more devastating. What I wonder is: how much more does Boston have to offer? We'll have to wait and see. In the meantime, Mr. Epstein continues to impress in the early going.

There's not really a problem here on the Phillies side, having signed Thome and rendered Giambi pretty useless with Burrell manning left field in the DH-less league. As they were reportedly going to non-tender him, there's nothing wrong with getting a decent prospect who isn't that far away back in return.

Finally, Rey-O is gone, but unfortunately not yet from the Major Leagues
Tampa Bay Devil Rays get: Rey Ordonez
New York Mets get: rid of Rey Ordonez and get two players to be named (Russ Johnson is one)

Unbelievable. As a New Yorker, even though I'm not a Met fan (I have nothing against them though and do watch their games quite a bit), I'm thrilled to see Ordonez go. Has there been a less productive player for as long as St. Rey in recent memory? Absolutely excrutiating to watch at the plate, even his occasional defensive gems were all but gone towards the end of last season, and his insults of the New York fans may indeed have been a blessing if that pushed him out the door. Sure the Mets are paying the majority of his salary for the coming season...but who cares?! The fact that they're paying any less than that stupid contract is unbelievable, and that they're getting two guys in return (one of whom is apparently Russ Johnson) is that much more incredible.

So the question around baseball today should be: what are the Devil Rays doing? They appear to have absolutely no plan in place and no idea what they're doing. Acquiring Rey Ordonez? I can't even put together coherent sentences on the idiocy of this. Tampa is a truly awful team, and they continually kick themselves in the ass with positively brutal moves like this one. If you're going to be bad, at least do it with cheap, young players who someday might not be as horrible as they currently are. Rey Ordonez solves nothing for any team in baseball. At his very best, he can be a defensive replacement on a team with an excellent middle infield offensively (the Yankees are a good example), and that's it. The fact that the Rays are planning on starting him on Opening Day is insanity, and should really make everyone wonder what the hell Chuck LaMar is doing retaining his job.
posted by VZW Watcher at 12:38 AM -

 
As anyone who's been following the Winter Meetings is well aware: there's not much going on. So far. Every story seems to focus on the crowd surrounding Expos GM Omar Minaya, as he's been ordered by the MLB to slice about $15 million off his payroll for next season and has some very desirable talent on his roster. On espn.com's baseball frontpage (there's a link on the left), there's a caption underneath the picture of Minaya that says "Omar Minaya must slice up to $15 million off the Expos' 2003 payroll." This is something that's always bothered me, and it's probably relevant enough to address here. Doesn't the "up to" qualifier imply that he could reduce the payroll by any amount, as long as it's not more than $15 million? Which includes zero dollars, and includes one dollar...all the way up. If the caption read that he had to reduce the payroll by "at least" $15 million, then we'd have something. Anyway, it does appear that Javier Vazquez at the very least will be on the move soon, possibly to the Yankees for Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera and El Duque. I don't like this at all (I have no desire to part with Johnson, who's going to be terrific), but I'm going to wait to comment on it further until it happens. There's a ton of speculation circulating, so we'll wait and see.

Todd Zeile to the Yankees for $1.5 million
This isn't a done deal yet, but it's looking pretty likely. At this point in the career of a guy like Todd Zeile, this is a move that makes a lot of sense, particularly if Nick Johnson isn't going to be in the Bronx much longer. From the Yankee perspective, I don't really understand. They've got Ron Coomer, who presumably could be signed for less money and was just about as productive as Zeile was last year. The two guys are similar ages, and while Zeile's certainly a more established "good offensive player", I wonder if this spot couldn't be filled by someone else for considerably less money (a Jarrod Patterson, for example). Both Zeile and Coomer are declining, and while a decent year isn't out of the question for either of them, I don't know why this move is necessary. If Zeile is strictly a backup for Ventura and Giambi and does essentially what Coomer did last year (getting 150 at bats), that's alright. Either way, this seems to me to be a poor allocation of resources for team that is actively trying to pursue more expensive talent with the luxury tax already hanging over its head.

If and when we get some major developments from Nashville, there'll be more here.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:42 PM -

 
There wasn't an update yesterday (though the days are a bit misleading, as we tend to post in the wee hours of the morning), which I'll take the blame for. I fully intend to get more than one post up today to cover the continuing Winter Meetings in Nashville, as I expect we'll be hearing some news from there. That said, I'll get to what we do know so far.

Todd Walker to the Red Sox for Tony Blanco, Josh Thigpen
I don't get it. It's pretty clear that Tony Blanco, as big a prospect as he was (he's now been downgraded a bit) doesn't fit in with the new Red Sox organizational philosophy (6 walks, 70 strikeouts, .250 OBP in A ball). And it's pretty clear that he's now well behind Kevin Youkilis in terms of who the organization envisions at third base in the near future. But it seems to me that could you still probably get more for Tony Blanco. Of course I don't work in a major league front office and I'm not a scout, maybe there's something about him that I'm totally unaware of. But in a system as weak as the Red Sox have, I find it hard to believe that they can afford to give up two of their top 9 prospects (according to the excellent theprospectreport.com) to fill a position that's already got someone waiting to step into it. As I've got a lot of faith based on what I've heard so far in Mr. Epstein, I have to assume he's got something else up his sleeve. But why you'd spend some of your minimal young talent to bring in 30 year old Todd Walker when you've got the never-been-more-ready, 25 year old Freddy Sanchez in the organization already is a bit confusing to me.

From the Reds' standpoint, it makes even less sense. While there's reason to (at the very least) give Epstein the benefit of the doubt at the beginning of his tenure as Red Sox GM, there's no apparent plan at work for the Reds other than cutting payroll. Todd Walker was a very solid, reasonably priced second baseman for them last year and there's little reason to think he wouldn't be again. Unlike the Red Sox, there's no one in the Cincinnati organization ready to step in and take that job. Now while it's possible they'll look to free agency to find a cheap solution, the rumored fix is transplanting third baseman Brandon Larson. While this might work out if he can handle the position defensively, it still doesn't explain why the trade was made. This is an organization that already has Russell Branyan and Aaron Boone at third, as well as an established first baseman (Sean Casey) and young, excellent corner outfielders (Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns). Obtaining a prospect of Tony Blanco's caliber (particularly at a position where you are stacked at the major league level) and a pitching prospect (albeit a decent one) for an established player on the level of Todd Walker just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

A confusing deal on both sides, I fully expect to see more action from both teams this week.
posted by VZW Watcher at 3:19 AM -

 
Welcome to those of you coming here via Aaron's Baseball Blog, we're very thankful for the link. I hope you all (or at least some) share Aaron's sensibilities and like what you read. I can't promise you the most comprehensive or detailed analysis there is...there are so many sites out there to choose from that do an incredible job. All we hope to do here is participate in the dialogue, get our take on things out to the public, and get feedback from those who read our work. We're not claiming to be the last word on a damn thing...but we do hope you'll find this site useful and entertaining, and that you'll come back. If you've got a blog yourself, please let us know if you'd like to be linked here as I'll gladly do it, just contact me using one of the methods on the left side of the screen. If you've got any suggestions on how we could improve this site, we'd love to hear them as well. As a last piece of business, I encourage you all to check out our main site, The Dump. Okay, enough housekeeping, on to baseball matters.

The Pete Rose saga drones on
Maybe I'm totally oblivious, but I don't understand why this debate continues. Do the rules of Major League Baseball, as posted in every clubhouse, not explicitly prohibit participants from betting on games? Pete Rose has agreed to a lifetime ban from baseball. That's it. End of story. Pete Rose's decision...made by none other than Pete Rose himself...is right there on the document he signed. He's banned. Can he apply for reinstatement? Sure, he's within his rights to do so. But then everything that hasn't been revealed to the public has to be taken into consideration, and somehow I don't feel that's what Mr. Rose has in mind. On espn.com, they've run polls all day indicating that the vast majority of people (who took it upon themselves to vote on this issue) want Rose reinstated. So what? The masses are sometimes dead wrong, and this is a perfect example. It's plain as day: if you bet on baseball, you're going to be suspended. If you bet on your own team, to win or to lose, you're going to be banned for life. Pete Rose could've played it out. If he's not guilty of the charges levied against him, then he'd be fine and free to operate in baseball just like anyone else. Of course, the evidence against him is overwhelming and incredibly damning (and he knows this) so it's clear why he agreed to what he did. Pete Rose should never be allowed to participate in Major League Baseball again. Whether he fesses up to his crimes or not. His sins against the game are inexcusable and unforgivable, and clearly in violation of the rules. He's a disgrace to the league and really to all athletic competition, and whether he's a fan favorite or not, there's no room in sports for people like Pete Rose.

That said, I couldn't care less if he's allowed into the Hall of Fame. At the time, there was nothing to prohibit banned players from entering the Hall, and he does deserve to be in on merit. While I believe things can and should be done to punish him going forward, his career speaks for itself. The Hall of Fame, in my opinion, is not there to honor great men, it's there to honor great players. It's pretty clear that Rose stuck around far too long in baseball and did so to the detriment of his teams. But it's also clear that he had a superlative career and is the all-time leader in hits. He's a player that deserves a plaque in Cooperstown, regardless of his future in the sport. So I'd be in support of suspending the Hall of Fame rule that no banned player is eligible on the grounds that it was not in place when Rose agreed to a lifetime ban. There's a huge difference between this and his being reinstated, which would be totally reprehensible in light of the facts available to us.

And while this shouldn't be a concern, maybe if he's admitted into the Hall people will stop talking about him. Maybe his banishment will become a dead issue. Do people really need to hear Pete Rose on radio or television? Or in their team's dugout? I doubt it. It seems like something that the masses bitch and moan about because they feel their guy, a regular Joe who's made some mistakes, is not being given his due. Fine, give him his induction (without ceremony), and have that be the last involvement with Major League Baseball that he ever has. I'm sick of hearing about Pete Rose.

For a really terrific (and lengthy) commentary on this issue, I encourage all of you to read Derek Zumsteg's Evaluating the Dowd Report. While I suspect a great many of you have seen this already, if there's anyone reading this who hasn't...it's worth your time and will put to rest any doubts you have on the issue. If you'd like to read the commentary of a guy who doesn't recognize the difference between "reinstatement" and "induction to the Hall of Fame", check out the ruminations of Rob Dibble.
posted by VZW Watcher at 3:29 AM -

 
There's a whole mess of things to get to today, as I've been occupied and unable to comment on much of the noise and activity of the past few (or two) days. As I have a little while now, I'll try to get to as much as possible. Before I get to any original content however, I'd like to dutifully thank our friend Aaron Gleeman over at Aaron's Baseball Blog both for linking us there and giving us some advice in the early going on how to proceed here. Even more importantly, I'd like to direct your attention to his fine piece available today on the candidates up for Hall of Fame election this year, which is an excellent read. On to this site...

The Giants sign Ray Durham, Marquis Grissom
Okay, the analysis you're going to get here isn't going to be a surprise, so if that's what you're looking for you might want to move along. Put quite simply, Ray Durham is a fine investment. This deal, which by all indications is worth $20.1 million over 3 years (with a player option for an extra year at $ 7 million thrown in there), works out to a bit more than $6 million a season, perfectly reasonable in this market for a guy who brings to the table what a Ray Durham does. This greatly improves the Giant lineup right now, whether he plays his natural second base or moves to center field to accomodate the resigning of Jeff Kent (which, naturally would be all the better). He's a legitimate leadoff hitter with good speed and would help the vast majority of lineups in baseball. That said, this is quite detrimental if this is money that would be needed to bring back Jeff Kent, a more productive player than Durham. That said, the Giants have gone ahead and offered arbitration to Kent, and with the market as it is, it's conceivable that he might be willing to negotiate with the Giants and agree to a contract that's a bit less than he intended heading into the offseason.

On the other hand, signing Marquis Grissom to what is allegedly a 2 year, $4.25 million contract (with a team option) is foolishness. While it's impossible to deny that he's coming off a pretty decent season (.289 EqA), he's also the same guy that has been well below average for the five seasons prior. He's also going to be 36 and 37 over the two seasons included in this contract. Basically, my problem with signing Grissom is not signing him, but the terms of this contract. He's no longer good enough defensively to handle playing center field on a regular basis, and he's not productive enough offensively to handle the Giants vacant outfield corner (right field, naturally). Given his production last year, is he a viable contributor (potentially) on a team in 2003? Sure, he deserves that shot. But there's no justification for giving him anything more than a one year contract on the cheap to be a 4th outfielder/pinch hitter, which I fear is not all the Giants are envisioning here.

That said, if the Giants can find a way to bring Jeff Kent back into the fold, even if you do start Grissom in right, this is a far more daunting lineup than anything the Giants trotted out there in 2002.

Some Yankee News
First of all, the Yanks had to make some tough decisions on arbitration day, and I'm not too pleased with what went down. Both Mike Stanton and Ramiro Mendoza, guys who have been essential cogs in the Yankee machine during its run, were not offered arbitration and are now done in pinstripes. Apparently, the Yanks have chosen to negotiate instead with Chris Hammond, who would presumably take over Stanton's role as the top lefty in the bullpen. This sucks. I don't know how much Stanton and Mendoza would've cost the Yanks, but these guys, when healthy, have been as good as anyone in their respective roles. I'm all for going out and improving the team even if it means saying goodbye to some friendly faces, but I don't see it happening here. Hammond is a very questionable signing for any team in my opinion, as his incredible season last year in Atlanta sticks out like a conservative in Boston. I'm disappointed, have no idea how they intend to replace Mendoza, and hope that the negotiations with Hammond (supposedly for a two year deal worth about $5 million) break down somehow.

The Yanks came to terms with Chris Widger, who'll return as the backup to Jorge Posada, which is fine by me. He's getting paid $750,000 (an unbelievable sum for the amount of work he'll actually be doing), but at least he's a credible offensive threat when he's in the lineup and it's not much money in the overall scheme of things for the team, so it's not much of an issue. They also offered arbitration to Roger Clemens, who appears to be coming back, and Ron Coomer, who performed quite well last season in limited time and probably won't be too expensive. There's no reason to believe he can't continue to be a good pinch hitter and spot starter at first and third, and he seems content with that role at this point in his career. As far as Clemens is concerned, I don't really understand his ridiculous contract. But apparently he's going to be paid a whole bunch of money anyway by the Yankees no matter what, so I'd rather him be pitching for them than against them. He's still a quality major league pitcher who continues to show flashes of brilliance, albeit not quite as bright as those from a few years ago. Still totally capable of winning 15 games or so for the Yankees, I've got no problem with him in my rotation and see no reason that he can't pitch for a few more years yet if he wants to (I think he will).
posted by VZW Watcher at 12:45 PM -

 
Couple of things to discuss tonight. First and foremost, I'd like to thank those of you who have been coming here via the link at the dump's main site. I certainly hope you've been enjoying the content we've been providing. My intention is to ultimately do a bit more than just offer opinions on the news of the day, but also write pieces on other baseball-related topics (there will be some discuss of Hall of Fame candidates soon, for example). Anyway, if you're coming to this site from outside, I encourage you to go check out the work over on the dump's main site (there's a link to the left) and let us know what you think of it. On to baseball matters...

The biggest news of the day (or yesterday) Dan covered pretty well, that being the trade of Ryan Drese and Einar Diaz to the Rangers for Aaron Myette and Travis Hafner. It has been pretty clear to just about everyone in the sabermetic community that Hafner is and has been major league ready for a little while now, and this is a terrific deal for the Indians. Myette - Drese is at the very worst a wash, and Einar Diaz was going to be useless (he was pretty useless anyway) with the Indians having Vic Martinez ready to step in and catch everyday. This is not going to be a contending team in 2003, and they're much better off throwing young players into starting jobs and letting them develop than retaining old, unproductive garbage like Diaz. Travis Hafner, projected very modestly, should be an above-average major league first baseman based on his numbers at AAA. He's not Jim Thome, but he's a hell of a lot cheaper, and he's a much better first baseman that Indians fans had any right to expect for the coming season. John Hart's pattern of trading young offensive players for mediocrity (in this case, worse) continues. How long til we see guys like Blalock, Mench and Teixeira leave Arlington? Time will tell.

So the question now on everyone's minds is: where does this leave Pudge? The Rangers have elected not to offer him arbitration, so the thinking is that his career in Texas is over (it is). So where does he go from here? The team I've heard most commonly mentioned is the Cubs, but having just acquired Damian Miller and Paul Bako (though he's not that important here), I find it pretty difficult to believe. While Rodriguez is unquestionably better than Miller, they're both legitimate starting catchers and would be redundant on the same roster. So who else needs a catcher and can afford him, even for a one year, make good contract? I'm going to throw a few teams out there. Why not the Tigers? Having just moved in the fences at Comerica, they could certainly use a guy who could capitalize on that and draw some crowds. Are they willing to pony up the necessary cash? Would Pudge be willing to go to a horrible team (again)? I don't know. The Tigers, being an American League team with minimal talent, also have the DH to use him at to reduce the wear on him. And of course, they've got Brandon Inge to back him up, potentially. Why not the Giants? They've presumably got some money if Jeff Kent leaves town, and they'll need another bat behind Bonds. Benito Santiago can't be viewed as a long term answer, and the combination of he and Pudge catching (with the two of them playing some first as well with JT Snow) would be a huge improvement to the lineup. And what about the Orioles, who were mentioned quite a bit at the beginning of the offseason? Clearly not contenders, but a lineup in which Pudge could star and really boost his value again, possibly even by July 31. This'll be a really interesting story to watch going forward.

If I were Bill Stoneman, I'd consider giving Mr. Rodriguez a call. But that's just me.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:15 AM -

 
Welcome, Dan. Since his inaugural post earlier this evening, there have been a few more details about the contract Glavine is set to sign (pending a physical) that have come out. These are rather significant and might well change his opinion on the signing.

Apparently (this is according to espn.com), Peter Gammons is reporting that the deal is for $35 million over three years (more than the originally reported $30 million) and the Associated Press is reporting that it actually includes a vesting option for a fourth year, for a total of $42.5 million. Having no sources of my own, but having had my ear on the reports coming out of the Glavine wooing bonanza in the past few weeks, I'm inclined to say that it's going to end up being the second of the two. I honestly felt that he would end up back in Atlanta eventually, as he really seemed (again, according to reports) to be hedging a bit of late. If it does include a vesting option, this has the potential to go from an unwise signing to a real bad one for the Mets.

Clearly the Mets rotation is upgraded with the addition of Glavine even if he performs substantially worse than he did in 2002. It's probably a safe bet that you're going to get at least 200 pretty solid (at the very least) innings out of him for the next few years, unless he really breaks down. Getting hurt is always a possibilty with any pitcher, but Glavine's excellent record in recent years (he's pitched at least 219 innings in each of the past seven seasons) leads one to believe he'll likely be pretty reliable. So the Mets staff is improved. Big deal. When we look at the Mets, what are the biggest problems with the team that jump out at us?

- they were really old in 2002
- they finished 13th in the National League in runs scored
- their starting outfield was the worst in all of baseball

The pitching staff wasn't that bad. Al Leiter, Pedro Astacio and Steve Trachsel combined for nearly 600 pretty decent innings, with the rest of the slack picked up by Shawn Estes (until he was traded), Jeff D'Amico, John Thomson and Mike Bacsik. The bullpen was also adequate, led by pretty awesome seasons from Mark Guthrie and David Weathers. So now the rotation looks like this: Leiter, Glavine (or swap them), Astacio and then likely Thomson and Bacsik (or Trachsel, if they resign him). Fine, that's a serviceable rotation. But the more important issues, like the absolutely brutal offense, particuarly the outfield, have gone totally unaddressed. Not only that, but it appears that the Mets may not offer arbitration to Edgardo Alfonzo, meaning they'll have yet another position to fill.

My question (and I'm echoing Dan here) is: where's the interest in the top outfielder available, Cliff Floyd? I understand he wants a whole mess of money and there are injury concerns surrounding him, but he also does something that Tom Glavine most certainly does not: he fills the Mets' most burning need. If I was Steve Phillips, I'd have gone into this offseason with the mission to go out and acquire the top offensive players available, forgetting about any other factors. Clearly the Mets have some money to spend, and I'm here to say they've now done so in the wrong way, yet again. I don't think Glavine'll be a bust for them and I think he'll pitch reasonably well for the life of the contract, even when it gets extended to that fourth year and he's pitching at 40. But he won't pitch well enough to justify the salary (like, say, Greg Maddux might) and he won't add production to what will continue to be one of the worst offenses in baseball.

I'll be back with more later, just wanted to get my two cents in on Glavine.
posted by VZW Watcher at 4:24 AM -

 
A few early pieces of news today. In addition, you might notice that I'm going to try to insert hyperlinks into the text as well as -perhaps- some bold lettering. Wildly new innovations, I know...this is progress, right before your eyes.

Remlinger signs $10.65 million, 3 year deal
Okay, so this isn't news from yesterday as the story actually broke on Monday. But it should continue to make us question what the Cubs are doing. In addition to adding the salaries and necessary roster filler of Mark Grudzielanek and Eric Karros, they've also signed a quality reliever in Remlinger for three years at more than $3.5 million per. This is defensible if you've got an extraordinary amount of money to throw around and are really desperate to help an ailing bullpen, as the Cubs are (they blew 25 games last season). Remlinger is coming off a terrific season in which he went 7-3 with a 1.99 ERA and better than a strikeout an inning (69 in 68 innings). But he's also going to be 37 before the start of next season, and 39 before his deal expires. Clearly, there are far worse ways to spend money, and it appears that guys like Remlinger who only pitch 68 innings a year might be able to last a bit longer than their 200 inning counterparts and retain their value. The question that really jumps out at me though is this...with the amount of money they've spent now signing Remlinger and new manager Dusty Baker, along with Karros and Grudzielanek, and since they've apparently decided not to go with Hee Seop Choi at first base...why didn't they make a more substantial run at Jim Thome? Thome grew up a Cubs fan and, by his request, met with Cubs brass to discuss working something out, which they never pursued in earnest likely because of the price tag (as opposed to the reason they should've used, which is that they have a perfectly good, much younger and cheaper first baseman already in Choi). I'm not going to proceed much further, as there are definitely things I'm overlooking here and I'm choosing for the time being to steer clear of really hard, critical analysis of this signing, as I don't think it's that bad. But it does further suggest that perhaps the Cubs are flying by the seat of their pants and really didn't take into account all their options at the beginning of this offseason, when they really could have made some headway. This may yet be an improved team, I just don't see Remlinger, Baker, Karros or Grudzielanek contributing a whole lot towards that end.

Ventura close to resigning with the Yankees for a year at $5 million
As this blog opened with a stated focus on the Yankees, it about time I got to an issue related to them. I really see no problem here. Ventura did a decent job last year (.247/.368/.458), and while his second half decline (.227/.371/.389) is a mild concern, there really aren't a whole lot of other options at third base. The Drew Henson saga has been pretty well covered, so I won't add anything other than to say that it appears that the Yankees are still holding out some hope and as such, aren't going after a long term solution at third. I've heard the name Edgardo Alfonzo bantered about a bit, but I think it extremely unlikely that the Yanks are really interested in bringing in a guy whose had the injury troubles he has at the salary he's likely to command, despite the fact that he'll make substantially less than a player in his shoes would've made even last offseason. Ventura for $5 million is a lot less than the Yanks paid for him last season ($8.5 million) and if he can merely duplicate his output from a year ago, I'll happily take that and worry about what to do afterwards next winter.
posted by VZW Watcher at 3:16 PM -

 
In just two days of this, we've already been blessed with some major transactions. I'll handle each deal separately.

Chicago White Sox get: Billy Koch, two unnamed minor leaguers.
Oakland Athletics get: Keith Foulke, Mark Johnson, Joe Valentine, cash.

There's not a whole lot to say here that shouldn't be incredibly obvious given the facts. A lot depends on the identity of the two unnamed parties (who will reportedly be identified later this month), but given the track records of both A's GM Billy Beane and White Sox GM Kenny Williams, the likelihood of them being particularly valuable is pretty slim. So given what we currently know...plain and simple, Keith Foulke is demonstrably a better pitcher than Billy Koch. Foulke has now been in the league for six seasons, and has been well above average for the past four seasons (posting ERA+ numbers of 215, 174, 198 and 159). Luckily for us, Billy Koch has been in the league for four years, so we can compare his ERA+ figures over that span as well (145, 189, 99, 142). So in three out of four seasons...including this past season, when Foulke somehow lost his job following a few blown saves...Foulke seems to have been a better pitcher. Of course, he lacks the gaudy win total (10 wins in relief) and save total (44) that Koch has racked up, making a rube like Kenny Williams rife for the ripoff that we saw take place. There's also the issue of their contracts. Foulke will make $6 million this season and is then eligible for free agency. Koch, on the other hand, is under contract but arbitration-eligible for the next three years. As we've got no idea what he'll be granted in arbitration, it's impossible to know exactly how the deal breaks down financially, so the thought is that maybe that was a factor for the White Sox. But...no. The good guy that he is, Kenny Williams even threw in the necessary cash to even it up financially, so regardless of what Koch is awarded, the White Sox are still paying Foulke's salary (and then some, possibly). Of course, the A's got not only the better pitcher, but also two other players. Mark Johnson projects as a backup catcher (a role he occupied last season in Chicago without much success) who can draw a walk now and then. While certainly not the kind of guy you'd want to spend a lot of money on, he's under contract for $350,000 next year and can certainly back up Ramon Hernandez. The final guy we know about is Joe Valentine, a minor league closer who put up some rather gaudy numbers in AA last year. While we should always be skeptical about minor league closers as a rule, there's nothing wrong with guys who put up good numbers, and the A's are already getting the better of the deal even before he's taken into account. There's no reason why a guy who had success at the level he did last year (4-1, 1.97 ERA, 36 saves and 63 strikeouts in 59.1 innings over 55 appearances) can't and won't be given a shot to make the A's bullpen next year right out of the gate, which could well have some vacancies.

The added wrinkle to this is Foulke's stated desire over the years to be given an opportunity to start. I'm not going to make the claim that he'd be a great starter in the majors...I really have no idea, I'm not nearly familiar enough with him to make that kind of a judgment. On a team like the A's, which has a pretty damn good rotation anyway and a weaker bullpen, it might make the most sense for him to stay on as a reliever anyway. But the opportunity is definitely there. As you might have read at baseballprospectus.com (but I thought of it before I read it there, really I did), there's even the possibility that Beane would give Foulke the chance to start that he's always wanted and then be able to sign him to a below-market extension. It's a possibility.

So we'll see who the guys are heading to Chicago to finish this deal. Unless they're on the order of Rich Harden or John-Ford Griffin, it probably won't change things much...and I wouldn't hold my breath. The only positive I can see in this for the Sox is that maybe it clears the way for Miguel Olivo to break in as a starting catcher. But the White Sox have to resist the temptation to plug in Josh Paul, who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat, but is an organizational favorite. I'm far from convinced that they'll be able to do that. The fact that Beane-Williams deals occur points out (again) the huge disparity between people in baseball who know what they're doing and those at the other end of the spectrum who appear to have no idea.

Los Angeles Dodgers get: Todd Hundley
Chicago Cubs get: Mark Grudzielanek, Eric Karros

If this is it, and there's no other moves forthcoming...this is sheer idiocy for the Cubs. I have no idea where Grudzielanek will play (presumably at second, he no longer has sufficient range to cover short), and if Karros is coming in to start at first (which would appear to be the case right now), he's robbing Hee Seop Choi of his well deserved opportunity. I would hope that at the very least Grudzielanek is thought of as a backup, as a veteran to help in the development of Bobby Hill. For the Dodgers, this makes much more sense. First of all, all indications point to second baseman Joe Thurston being ready to step in and claim the major league job, so this clears the way for him. In addition, they get the ridiculous salaries of Grudzielanek ($6 million, including buyout of next season) and Karros ($9 million, including buyout of next season) off the books a season earlier than they would have. Paying Hundley's salary (he's due $12.5 million over the next two years) instead of those two reduces the Dodger payroll by $8 million this year, allowing them to go after Cliff Floyd or Jeff Kent (though that would defeat the purpose of freeing the spot for Thurston) if they're so inclined.

So what we have is essentially just teams exchanging overpaid players. The Dodgers will use Hundley as a backup/platoon guy at catcher with the superior Paul LoDuca and he'll play some first base too, I suppose. He's shown nothing over the last two seasons in Chicago to indicate that he can play at a level anywhere near what he's being paid, but if he lets them utilize their young talent and sign Floyd to play first, it makes some sense. Floyd's talked favorably about Los Angeles, and has played for Tracy before in the minors. On the other hand, we have an organization moving backwards...unless of course, the plan is to now move Karros, as has been suggested. Blocking Choi and Hill in order to cater to the whims of new manager Dusty Baker is real foolish, and the hope here is that we don't see more of this, as the Cubs have a whole bunch of good young players coming up through the ranks. It's hard for me to believe that the Cubs braintrust is this short sighted and foolhardy, so I've got to believe there's something else cooking.

That's all for right now.
posted by VZW Watcher at 11:31 PM -

 
The biggest baseball news story of the day is unquestionably the signing of Jim Thome with the Philadelphia Phillies. As it's been debated in many different publications and on websites by people much more well-advised than I, I think it's pretty clear that a six year, $87 million commitment to a 32-year old (even one who is coming off the best season to date of his career, which was good enough for arguably the best season in the American League) is at best a fairly questionable proposition. That said, you could certainly do a lot worse. While you're certainly overspending over the life of the contract (which breaks down to $14.5 million a year), it's a pretty good bet that the production Thome's going to give you over the next couple of seasons at the very least is going to be in line with what he's done the past few years. And if he's slightly worse, that's still fine on a much better offensive team. He's been pretty durable and extremely effective, so clearly he'll be a welcome addition, even at this cost. But are the Phillies the right team to sign him?

What I question most is why the Phillies seem to think that signing Thome and David Bell (and Tom Glavine as well, should they manage to do so) makes them into contenders. Lest we forget, the Phillies finished under .500 last season, a whole 21.5 games behind the Braves and 15 games behind the Giants for the wild card. This is still a team that may well feature a rotation that includes guys like Joe Roa and Dave Coggin, even if they manage to sign Glavine. I realize the money out there is currently pretty limited, so Thome's options were relatively few from Day One.

It's hard to fault Thome on his decision. By all appearances, he would've been passing up a guaranteed sixth year and $27 million in order to stay in Cleveland, and obviously this is what's best for him. At the same time, he'll be on a team next year with a far better offense around him than he would've enjoyed in Cleveland. And theoretically, with the Braves set to decline (again) and losing two of their best pitchers, there should conceivably be a window of opportunity for someone to step up and claim what may well be the worst division in baseball next year.
posted by VZW Watcher at 5:34 PM -

 
I welcome those of you who have decided to spend some of your precious time reading my insights. I'm choosing to do this mostly as a project to get my ideas out there a bit, and I'm spurred on by the success of guys like Aaron Gleeman, who has managed to do essentially this focusing on his Twins. This'll be far more focused on my team, the Yankees, but I definitely hope to cover a far wider range than just that. So as I write this at what is essentially still the beginning of the offseason, my hope is that as this becomes a successful venture with many, many postings, this particular introductory post will come to serve only as a trivial historical item. Enough intro, on to content.
posted by VZW Watcher at 5:10 PM -