Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

 
In just two days of this, we've already been blessed with some major transactions. I'll handle each deal separately.

Chicago White Sox get: Billy Koch, two unnamed minor leaguers.
Oakland Athletics get: Keith Foulke, Mark Johnson, Joe Valentine, cash.

There's not a whole lot to say here that shouldn't be incredibly obvious given the facts. A lot depends on the identity of the two unnamed parties (who will reportedly be identified later this month), but given the track records of both A's GM Billy Beane and White Sox GM Kenny Williams, the likelihood of them being particularly valuable is pretty slim. So given what we currently know...plain and simple, Keith Foulke is demonstrably a better pitcher than Billy Koch. Foulke has now been in the league for six seasons, and has been well above average for the past four seasons (posting ERA+ numbers of 215, 174, 198 and 159). Luckily for us, Billy Koch has been in the league for four years, so we can compare his ERA+ figures over that span as well (145, 189, 99, 142). So in three out of four seasons...including this past season, when Foulke somehow lost his job following a few blown saves...Foulke seems to have been a better pitcher. Of course, he lacks the gaudy win total (10 wins in relief) and save total (44) that Koch has racked up, making a rube like Kenny Williams rife for the ripoff that we saw take place. There's also the issue of their contracts. Foulke will make $6 million this season and is then eligible for free agency. Koch, on the other hand, is under contract but arbitration-eligible for the next three years. As we've got no idea what he'll be granted in arbitration, it's impossible to know exactly how the deal breaks down financially, so the thought is that maybe that was a factor for the White Sox. But...no. The good guy that he is, Kenny Williams even threw in the necessary cash to even it up financially, so regardless of what Koch is awarded, the White Sox are still paying Foulke's salary (and then some, possibly). Of course, the A's got not only the better pitcher, but also two other players. Mark Johnson projects as a backup catcher (a role he occupied last season in Chicago without much success) who can draw a walk now and then. While certainly not the kind of guy you'd want to spend a lot of money on, he's under contract for $350,000 next year and can certainly back up Ramon Hernandez. The final guy we know about is Joe Valentine, a minor league closer who put up some rather gaudy numbers in AA last year. While we should always be skeptical about minor league closers as a rule, there's nothing wrong with guys who put up good numbers, and the A's are already getting the better of the deal even before he's taken into account. There's no reason why a guy who had success at the level he did last year (4-1, 1.97 ERA, 36 saves and 63 strikeouts in 59.1 innings over 55 appearances) can't and won't be given a shot to make the A's bullpen next year right out of the gate, which could well have some vacancies.

The added wrinkle to this is Foulke's stated desire over the years to be given an opportunity to start. I'm not going to make the claim that he'd be a great starter in the majors...I really have no idea, I'm not nearly familiar enough with him to make that kind of a judgment. On a team like the A's, which has a pretty damn good rotation anyway and a weaker bullpen, it might make the most sense for him to stay on as a reliever anyway. But the opportunity is definitely there. As you might have read at baseballprospectus.com (but I thought of it before I read it there, really I did), there's even the possibility that Beane would give Foulke the chance to start that he's always wanted and then be able to sign him to a below-market extension. It's a possibility.

So we'll see who the guys are heading to Chicago to finish this deal. Unless they're on the order of Rich Harden or John-Ford Griffin, it probably won't change things much...and I wouldn't hold my breath. The only positive I can see in this for the Sox is that maybe it clears the way for Miguel Olivo to break in as a starting catcher. But the White Sox have to resist the temptation to plug in Josh Paul, who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat, but is an organizational favorite. I'm far from convinced that they'll be able to do that. The fact that Beane-Williams deals occur points out (again) the huge disparity between people in baseball who know what they're doing and those at the other end of the spectrum who appear to have no idea.

Los Angeles Dodgers get: Todd Hundley
Chicago Cubs get: Mark Grudzielanek, Eric Karros

If this is it, and there's no other moves forthcoming...this is sheer idiocy for the Cubs. I have no idea where Grudzielanek will play (presumably at second, he no longer has sufficient range to cover short), and if Karros is coming in to start at first (which would appear to be the case right now), he's robbing Hee Seop Choi of his well deserved opportunity. I would hope that at the very least Grudzielanek is thought of as a backup, as a veteran to help in the development of Bobby Hill. For the Dodgers, this makes much more sense. First of all, all indications point to second baseman Joe Thurston being ready to step in and claim the major league job, so this clears the way for him. In addition, they get the ridiculous salaries of Grudzielanek ($6 million, including buyout of next season) and Karros ($9 million, including buyout of next season) off the books a season earlier than they would have. Paying Hundley's salary (he's due $12.5 million over the next two years) instead of those two reduces the Dodger payroll by $8 million this year, allowing them to go after Cliff Floyd or Jeff Kent (though that would defeat the purpose of freeing the spot for Thurston) if they're so inclined.

So what we have is essentially just teams exchanging overpaid players. The Dodgers will use Hundley as a backup/platoon guy at catcher with the superior Paul LoDuca and he'll play some first base too, I suppose. He's shown nothing over the last two seasons in Chicago to indicate that he can play at a level anywhere near what he's being paid, but if he lets them utilize their young talent and sign Floyd to play first, it makes some sense. Floyd's talked favorably about Los Angeles, and has played for Tracy before in the minors. On the other hand, we have an organization moving backwards...unless of course, the plan is to now move Karros, as has been suggested. Blocking Choi and Hill in order to cater to the whims of new manager Dusty Baker is real foolish, and the hope here is that we don't see more of this, as the Cubs have a whole bunch of good young players coming up through the ranks. It's hard for me to believe that the Cubs braintrust is this short sighted and foolhardy, so I've got to believe there's something else cooking.

That's all for right now.
posted by VZW Watcher at 11:31 PM -