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12.02.2002
The biggest baseball news story of the day is unquestionably the signing of Jim Thome with the Philadelphia Phillies. As it's been debated in many different publications and on websites by people much more well-advised than I, I think it's pretty clear that a six year, $87 million commitment to a 32-year old (even one who is coming off the best season to date of his career, which was good enough for arguably the best season in the American League) is at best a fairly questionable proposition. That said, you could certainly do a lot worse. While you're certainly overspending over the life of the contract (which breaks down to $14.5 million a year), it's a pretty good bet that the production Thome's going to give you over the next couple of seasons at the very least is going to be in line with what he's done the past few years. And if he's slightly worse, that's still fine on a much better offensive team. He's been pretty durable and extremely effective, so clearly he'll be a welcome addition, even at this cost. But are the Phillies the right team to sign him? What I question most is why the Phillies seem to think that signing Thome and David Bell (and Tom Glavine as well, should they manage to do so) makes them into contenders. Lest we forget, the Phillies finished under .500 last season, a whole 21.5 games behind the Braves and 15 games behind the Giants for the wild card. This is still a team that may well feature a rotation that includes guys like Joe Roa and Dave Coggin, even if they manage to sign Glavine. I realize the money out there is currently pretty limited, so Thome's options were relatively few from Day One. It's hard to fault Thome on his decision. By all appearances, he would've been passing up a guaranteed sixth year and $27 million in order to stay in Cleveland, and obviously this is what's best for him. At the same time, he'll be on a team next year with a far better offense around him than he would've enjoyed in Cleveland. And theoretically, with the Braves set to decline (again) and losing two of their best pitchers, there should conceivably be a window of opportunity for someone to step up and claim what may well be the worst division in baseball next year. - |