Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

Another Yankee third base possibility?
 
I just received today's edition of Lee Sinins's indispensible ATM Reports and learned that there are some awfully interesting rumors circulating in Chicago. Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune is reporting (in this article, registration required) that two possibilities are being discussed involving the Yankees and White Sox that would result in somebody better than new addition Tyler Houston manning third base in the Bronx:

1. Jose Valentin to the Yankees for prospects (he mentions Bubba Crosby, Ramon Ramirez, Jorge DePaula and Scott Proctor by name). Juan Uribe, acquired this offseason for Aaron Miles from Colorado, would take over at short.

2. A three-way deal, which would send Valentin and Paul Konerko to Anaheim, Darin Erstad and either Jarrod Washburn, John Lackey or Ramon Ortiz to Chicago and Troy Glaus to the Yankees. Rogers says the Yankees would send prospects to both teams (he specifically mentions Joaquin Arias and Robinson Cano).

As a Yankee fan, I'd be really happy with either of these. I have no desire to see the system's talent further reduced, but if we're seriously talking about being able to get established talent like Jose Valentin (who I really like anyway) and especially Troy Glaus for the likes of Bubba Crosby, I can't imagine not biting.

Of course, it's also very possible that these rumors are baseless. So we'll see.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:23 PM -

Oliver signs with Florida
 
This was news about two days ago, but I didn't get to it then. Darren Oliver has been a very mediocre (or bad) pitcher over the course of his career, and is now 33. He's coming off a season in Colorado where he pitched 180.1 innings (33 appearances, 32 starts), allowing 201 hits (21 homers), walking 61 and striking out 88 while posting a 13-11 record with a 5.05 ERA. You'd expect improvement in some of those numbers as he moves from the pitchers' hell that is Coors Field to Miami, but he actually pitched pretty well - relative to his usual performance - in Denver last year.

At Coors, he compiled a 7-3 record with a 4.50 ERA, allowing 89 hits (12 homers), walking 26 and striking out 40 over 78 innings (14 starts, 1 relief appearance). On the road, he was 6-8 with a 5.45 ERA, allowing 112 hits (9 homers), walking 35 and striking out 48 over 102.1 innings (18 starts). So while getting out of Colorado is likely to help Oliver as it would any pitcher, I don't know that we should expect him to post considerably better numbers than he did at Coors, even knowing that his new home park, Pro Player Stadium in Miami, has historically been a good pitcher's park.

I just came across an article by Clark Spencer in the Miami Herald (here, if you want it) comparing this acquisition to that of Mark Redman before last season. I freely admit that I'm a bit of Redman lover, but there are some pretty significant differences between the two. Most notably, coming into last season, Redman had basically two full seasons (he made 11 starts between Minnesota and Detroit in 2001) under his belt, very much a work in progress. He was also only 29, while Oliver is four years older and has a much larger body of work for us to look at. Expecting Oliver to improve significantly as Redman did seems awfully foolhardy to me, but I tend to think it's mere wishful thinking on the part of Mr. Spencer and not necessarily what the organization is counting on.

The Marlins have pared some salary this offseason and this is only a $750,000 contract, so they're not taking a huge risk here, though in this market I'd have expected that he'd end up with an incentive-laden minor league deal. The hope is that Oliver can be supplanted in the rotation when the injured A.J. Burnett returns (he's shooting for May, though I can't say I know how realistic that is). Either way, Oliver's only being counted on to be the team's fifth starter, and while certainly not your first choice, he shouldn't kill the team in that role.
posted by VZW Watcher at 11:49 AM -

Mesa to the Pirates
 
Wow...really? I guess this only a minor league deal, but I still can't see why the Pirates would be interested in signing Jose Mesa. And yet, they've apparently done so, with an eye towards him competing with Juan Acevedo to be the team's closer. I know Mesa's got a lengthy track record of accumulating saves (he's got 249 in his career), but he'll be 38 in April and was absolutely terrible last year (5-7 with a 6.52 ERA over 58 innings, which doesn't adequately sum up how poorly he performed). On top of that, acquiring or anointing a "closer" should be low on a team like the Pirates' list of priorities...they ought to be more concerned with putting together a passable bullpen, something they currently lack. Adding Mesa doesn't help matters.

As of right now, the Pirates are looking at a passable rotation in:

1 Kip Wells
2 Kris Benson
3 Josh Fogg
4 Oliver Perez
5 Rick Reed / Ryan Vogelsong (probably the former)

And then a pretty bad bullpen. Looking at the likely candidates with a nod to Baseball Prospectus's ARP (Adjusted Runs Prevented, if you're not familiar with it, learn more here) and the innings they pitched in 2003:

Jose Mesa (-19.8 ARP over 57 innings)
Juan Acevedo (-10.9 ARP over 38.1 innings)
Brian Boehringer (-4.5 ARP over 61.1 innings)
Joe Beimel (-10.6 ARP over 62.1 innings)
Mark Corey (-1.7 ARP over 30.1 innings)
Brian Meadows (4.4 ARP over 45 innings)
Mike Gonzalez (-3.8 ARP over 8.1 innings)
Salomon Torres (6.4 ARP over 39.1 innings)
Jason Boyd (5.6 ARP over 52.1 innings)
Nelson Figueroa (4.2 ARP over 19.1 innings)

Of course, I'm looking at only 2003 numbers here, but the Pirates are taking the two pitchers who performed the worst among their bullpen candidates and letting them battle it out for the opportunity to come into games late with a three run lead or less. It's reasonable to expect that at least some of these guys will perform better in 2004 than they did last season, but of the entire group, who do you expect to bounce back less than a 38-year old who completely bottomed out last year? This probably isn't a real significant piece of news as the Pirates aren't going to do anything this season...but moves like this don't help matters any. Jose Mesa's not a guy the Pirates ought to be wasting their time with.
posted by VZW Watcher at 9:39 PM -

A terrific piece of work
 
I certainly can't promise this much content everyday (though we do hope to have more like this one and less when we've got nothing for you), but my Pistons beat the Celtics tonight and I'm in a good mood. (We also added a "Comment" feature to this site today, which we hope you'll make use of.)

For awhile now, I've wanted to see a compilation of all transactions (whether those are trades or signings or any other way that players move from one organization to another) for the purposes of being able to fully analyze the work of a front office. Clearly I could have started such a compilation with teams as they bring in new regimes, but it seems like it'd be an immense undertaking needing constant attention - and that's not even considering the work that'd be necessary to backtrack and go over all the moves that have already been made. The information is out there, and it's a beautiful dream of mine to see it all in one, relatively easy to access and analyze place. For now though, it's just a dream.

But tonight I came across something awfully exciting. While it's not precisely what I've envisioned (and of course, done nothing to make happen), Leigh Sprague has put together the Blue Jays All-Time Annotated Trade Catalogue and posted it (it's divided into five parts, three have been posted thus far) at the wonderful Batter's Box site. I'll let you all go over there and check it out for yourselves (it's something to behold), but basically: it's every trade Toronto's ever made, with relevant statistics and commentary. I can only imagine how much time and work went into putting it together. From afar, Leigh Sprague, we thank you and can only hope others follow your lead.
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:34 PM -

More on the Yankee third base vacancy
 
From everything I've heard, Yankees' third base prospect Drew Henson hasn't spoken to either Yankee brass or the public about any desire to play professional football in the NFL. In fact, his only public statements on the subject have been that he's committed to playing baseball - though his recent actions indicate that might not be the case any longer. As you probably know, Henson was drafted by the Houston Texans in the 6th round of last year's NFL Draft. Houston selected Henson realizing that his baseball career was not progressing as either he or the Yankees had envisioned, and hoping that he might want to try to resurrect his football career, having been a highly thought of quarterback at the University of Michigan. At this point, there are stories circulating that Henson is working out with college football players in an effort to either be signed and traded by the Texans (in which case he'd have some say over where he plays) or re-enter the NFL Draft in April, which he has a right to do if he remains unsigned. I don't know quite how much stock I put in this recent batch of reports (because there were similar reports not long ago that ultimately resulted in nothing happening), but if it's true, the Yankees stand to have the $12 million they owe Henson over the next three years taken off the books. Add that to the $5.75 million they stand to get back due to Aaron Boone's no longer-guaranteed contract that they will likely dump, and the Yankees are sitting on some decent cash that they were planning on spending in 2004. Realistically, cash probably isn't that much of an issue for Steinbrenner and the Yankees, but to go out and acquire someone now wouldn't require a significant payroll increase.

Of course, the Yankees currently boast a sizable void at third base, so filling it would probably be the most logical way to spend the money. However, there are no decent third basemen available on the free agent market (even Jose Hernandez has now been gobbled up), so the options are reduced to either trading for someone with a large salary that another team is unwilling to pay or signing someone who's still available but plays another position. It's been reported that Gary Sheffield is offering to play third base himself, and while he hasn't done so since 1993, it's something to consider. Sheffield would immediately become one of the best offensive third basemen in baseball and would represent a huge upgrade over the production the team expected to get from Boone this season (though the infield defense would undoubtedly take a significant hit, and it's already bad). The move would also shift the hole in the lineup from third base, which is a difficult position to fill, as the Yankees are discovering, to the outfield. While the defensive lineup of Bernie Williams in left, Kenny Lofton in center and Hideki Matsui in right would also probably be below average defensively, it could probably work. While Bernie would have to learn to play left and Matsui would have to learn to play right, we're a still month from spring training and they have time to do so.

At this point, you'd have completed what is admittedly probably the worst defensive alignment in the major leagues and maybe in quite awhile. A Sheffield-Derek Jeter-Alfonso Soriano-Jason Giambi-Jorge Posada infield would almost certainly give away quite a few runs, but preventing runs defensively hasn't been a huge part of the Yankee plan recently, and the offense would be tremendous. The outfield, while not quite as productive offensively, wouldn't be quite as bad defensively, and the eight fielders would comprising a pretty intimidating lineup. If the DH ends up being someone currently slated to come off the Yankee bench to fill out the lineup (like Tony Clark or Ruben Sierra), the defensive hit probably isn't worth it and it might be better to snag a good fielder and punt the offense from the ninth spot in the order. But the Yanks might have a whole bunch of money to spend, and it might be enough to entice someone like the still-unsigned Ivan Rodriguez to come to the Bronx.

I haven't heard anywhere that the Yankees or Rodriguez are even thinking about this as a possibility, so I can't imagine it'll happen. But Max Kellerman threw it out as a potential scenario (more of a dream than anything else, probably), and perhaps it's not that crazy. Pudge has been offered a 4 year/$40 million deal by the Tigers, which he has yet to accept - in fact, he's demanding more money. If the Yankees were to offer a contract in the same ballpark, I imagine he'd have to give it serious consideration. The team could construct a job sharing arrangement where Rodriguez and Posada would switch off catching and DHing (maybe even playing some first base, but I don't want to get too far ahead of myself), keeping both of them fresh, and at least when Pudge catches, improving the infield defense, if only marginally. It certainly seems like a longshot, but the Yankee lineup would be substantially better, and I'm not sure how the team can come up with a better solution, particularly without further emptying a nearly bankrupt minor league system.
posted by VZW Watcher at 6:31 PM -

Dean Palmer retires
 
Well, I guess the Yankees can cross Dean Palmer off the list of potential third basemen. Palmer's been held to just 87 games and 314 at bats over the past three seasons due both to lingering injuries (neck and shoulder issues) and very poor play. Because he's been totally unproductive and grossly overpaid by the Tigers for the past several years, it's easy to forget that at one time he was a pretty serious masher. Palmer hit 25 or more homeruns in a season six times in his career, and 33 or more four times, finishing up with 275 over the course of his career. Which is all the more impressive when you realize that he was pretty much done before he turned 33 and missed chunks of several seasons along the way.

More than anything, I'll remember Palmer for the incredibly gruesome injury he suffered on June 3, 1995 facing Kevin Tapani (thanks to baseballlibrary.com for refreshing my memory on the specific details). If I recall correctly, Palmer swung through a Tapani pitch and ruptured his biceps tendon, which rolled up in his arm. He was off to an excellent start that season (hitting .333 with 9 homers and 24 RBI in his first 114 at bats), and the injury knocked him out of the lineup until the final week of the year. While he would certainly go on to have many more productive seasons, that was one of many years essentially lost to injury.

There was some talk of Palmer attempting to make another go of it this season, as he signed a minor league contract with the Tigers at the beginning of December (his mammoth, five year/$36 million contract expired at the end of last season, so it's not like this retirement is saving Detroit any money). I assume he's continued to have some health issues (at his press conference, he mentioned that while he still wants to play, he doesn't feel he's physically able to do so), and decided that it's no longer worth the health risks that playing poses. This obviously has virtually no impact on the current Tigers, as they've long since moved on and haven't counted on Palmer being available for a few years. Palmer had a pretty decent career though (.251/.324/.472, but better than that when healthy), and it's over now.
posted by VZW Watcher at 3:57 PM -

Boone injured
 
There are reports this evening from all over the place that Aaron Boone's been injured in a pickup basketball game (in violation of his contract), possibly tearing his ACL. While there's some talk that he might be able to return at some point late in the season, it sounds as if the Yankees have to move forward assuming that Boone won't be available. This obviously sucks from the Yankees' standpoint, but it's not quite as disastrous as some might have us believe. Boone was projected as probably the ninth place hitter in the Yankee lineup, and rightly so. While he's been a reasonably productive hitter and fine defensive player (his problems in his late season stint in New York notwithstanding) over the course of the last five seasons, his career line is an underwhelming .270/.332/.448. That's not to say that the Yankees won't miss him...but I can't see losing him being the factor that makes or breaks the season.

The question now becomes how Boone will be replaced. I am assuming (and hoping) that the Yanks will not be content with forcing Enrique Wilson or Miguel Cairo into full-time duty, but I suppose it's a possibility. Obviously, either of those two would represent a substantial downgrade from Boone's production and would negatively impact the Yankee lineup, even being slotted in the nine hole. There's a distinct possibility that the team will trade for a third baseman before the season starts, not that there are that many available. Talking to Dan tonight about the injury and the void it leaves, he mentioned the possibility that the Yanks would go after either Edgardo Alfonzo or Corey Koskie, both of whom are intriguing options. I'm not sure why Minnesota (who should be very much in the mix for the AL Central crown again) would be interested in trading a third baseman who hit .292/.393/.452 last year and is due just $4.5 million in 2004, but if the Yanks can find a way to acquire him, that'd be great. Every article I'm reading about the Boone injury mentions that all the Yankees now have to play third base are Wilson, Cairo and failed prospect Drew Henson. While I'd like to see the team acquire a proven third baseman (if it can be done reasonably), I'd certainly prefer giving Henson an extended trial to either Wilson or Cairo being handed a job. If he sucks, so what? You know Wilson and Cairo would suck, at least Henson's not a known quantity at the major league level yet.
posted by VZW Watcher at 11:46 PM -

Rick Reed to the Pirates
 
This is a minor league contract, as you'd expect. Rick Reed is 39 and was dreadful last year in Minnesota. As a side note to the signing, there have been stories written in the past day or two about Reed's dealings with the Mets, who were apparently close to bringing him back into the fold, also with a minor league contract. Phil Tannenbaum, Reed's agent, was apparently insulted that Mets GM Jim Duquette didn't place some call or calls to him during the negotiations. So now, the Mets lose out on a 39-year old pitcher coming off a season in which he went 6-12 with a 5.08 ERA. Tannenbaum assures us that "this will definitely be reflected in the [Mets'] win-loss column this year." I'm not totally clear what the "win-loss column" would look like (perhaps wins minus losses, so games over .500) if it existed, but I think he's absolutely right, if not in the manner he intended.

The Pirates are a crappy team, but the rotation next season won't be all that bad. You'll have Kip Wells and Kris Benson at the top, with Josh Fogg and Oliver Perez behind them. That's an effective, passable top four - not enough to be competitive in what is shaping up to be a very top heavy NL Central (the Cubs and Astros appear to be the clear favorites) - with a fair amount of promise due to its youth. Wells is still just 26, Benson's the elder statesman at 29, Fogg's 27 and Perez is just 22. All of them have had some success at the major league level, and while they're far from Tim Hudson - Mark Mulder - Barry Zito - Rich Harden, it's a perfectly acceptable rotation.

Unfortunately, the team isn't likely to do a whole lot offensively, counting on unproven regulars like Tike Redman, J.J. Davis and Freddy Sanchez as well as retreads like Daryle Ward. Assuming they're not going to contend for the top two spots in the division this season...why not go with a fifth starter that is a little younger than 39, particularly in an organization that actually has some ready or near-ready pitching prospects? I'm assuming that the Pirates will take the correct approach and make Sean Burnett or David Williams win a rotation spot in spring training. If they're unable to do so, I guess I can see the logic in having roster filler like Reed to roll out there every fifth day. Of course, like every other team, the Pirates already have guys who can fill that role who actually have some upside like Ryan Vogelsong (who is now 26) and even Brian Meadows (who has done okay for them the past two seasons as an irregular starter), Nelson Figueroa and Blake Stein. Maybe Reed is marginally better than these other options (and I'm not willing to concede that), but even if that's the case, you're throwing away the opportunity to get a younger pitcher some innings. If it doesn't work out for whatever reason, you've already got players that can give you crappy innings in house. A team like the Pirates simply doesn't need Rick Reed.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:55 PM -