Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

 
Spring Training games begin today (as if you didn't know that already), and it feels damn good. I certainly wish I could be down there taking some action in, but I'll have to settle for listening for the time being...at least until tomorrow, when the Red Sox-Boston College game is being televised here in Boston. MLB.com is offering free radio broadcasts of a bunch of preseason games, you should check that out if you're interested.

On a sad and totally unrelated note, the great Fred "Mister" Rogers has passed on. As this site is run by three young men whose lives have been touched by his years of great work and dedication to childrens' television, we will miss him.

Kevin Millar apologizes
Kevin Millar's issued an apology to the Chunichi Dragons organization and their fans. This is nice to see despite the fact that he's handled the situation up to this point in a very unprofessional manner...but I guess it's better than nothing. As I've mentioned before, I don't buy his reasons for backing out of playing in Japan, but it appears now that he never actually signed a contract (despite "agreeing to terms"), so he was within his rights to walk away. I expect him to have a good year in Boston, where I've now got plenty of reason to root against him.
posted by VZW Watcher at 3:45 PM -

 
Expos contract Jose Offerman
I'm not really sure what to say about this. It's a minor league contract, and throughout this offseason I've had very little bad to say about those in general, as they're extremely low risk propositions...if you can sign someone with any potential value at all to a minor league deal, why not do it and give them a chance to be of some value? But Jose Offerman? I honestly didn't think he'd find another job in this country this year. I don't think as little of Offerman as many do, but his recent performance has been nothing short of abysmal (.232/.320/.335 last year between Boston and Seattle).

Offerman's been in steady, steep decline since 1998, which was his last year in Kansas City and which scored him the fat 4 year, $26 million contract with the Red Sox. You all know how bad he's been, but just in case, here are his numbers in brief:

1998: .315/.403/.438 over 709 PAs, OPS+ of 116
1999: .294/.391/.435 over 693 PAs, OPS+ of 107
2000: .255/.354/.359 over 527 PAs, OPS+ of 82
2001: .267/.342/.374 over 594 PAs, OPS+ of 89
2002: .232/.320/.335 over 326 PAs, OPS+ of 77

That's pretty remarkable consistency. With the exception of 2001, Offerman's declined precipitously in each of those categories in every season since 1998. While the money he made was a big issue in Boston (those performances aren't much of a return on the $6,750,000 salary he made in 2001 and 2002), it's an issue no longer as Montreal's on the hook for just $350,000 should Offerman make the team. But why use a roster spot (either on the major league team or even in AAA) on a guy who has shown himself to be virtually worthless at this point? He's a notoriously poor defensive player, so he doesn't help there either. I'm not sure why you'd take a flier on him at this point.

And there's this.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:58 PM -

 
Red Sox sign Robert Person to a minor league deal
Minor league deal with Spring Training invite (and incentives that could be worth up to $1 million). Not much to dislike here, even coming off a very poor and injury plagued 2002 season for Person, which is how he got to late February without a team in the first place. There doesn't appear to be a whole lot of room in the Red Sox rotation at the moment with Pedro, Lowe, Wakefield (for now), Burkett and Fossum the likely starting five to open the season and several other starters waiting in the wings (guys like Frank Castillo and Steve Woodard). Doesn't matter, this is a virtually risk-free proposition, and it would seem that Person'll open the season either in AAA or as a long man in a crowded bullpen. Either way, in order to pitch in Boston he's going to have to earn it, whether he does so in Fort Myers or Pawtucket.

Seems like a pretty decent strategy to assemble a bunch of these guys on the cheap and let them battle it out for innings and playing time based on merit, and that seems to be what GM Theo Epstein and the Red Sox brass have in mind here. Robert Person has had success in the major leagues, and while it wasn't there for him last year, he's (supposedly) healthy and only 33, so there's probably a decent chance he can be productive on some level again.

With Person signed, there aren't a whole lot of name guys left teamless, but among them is Chuck Finley. Why doesn't this guy have a job? We've written on this before, and we know he's 40, but he had a pretty good 2002 and probably wouldn't cost much at this point for a contending team. The Angels still seem like a really good fit, but GM Bill Stoneman is insistent that the team's not interested because they don't like the idea that they'd have to give up a first round pick as compensation, which is a fair point. We'll see what happens. Anyhow, Person will be probably be good for something in 2003.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:15 PM -

 
I'll be in Vermont (away from a computer) until Sunday night, so there won't be any updates until then, at least not by me. It's really a terrific day here in Boston, the kind that absolutely screams baseball...nice temperature, sun shining, warm breeze...I'm ready to get started.

Have a great weekend.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:16 PM -

 
My Baseball Prospectus 2003 book just arrived at long last...it's terrific. I've just added a whole bunch of new links to the link column at left...everything on there is really good and is on there both as a resource to you and a cheap attempt to get them to link to here. At some point I'll go through them and give them each more detailed plugs, but for now I'll just say that if you haven't checked them out, they're all worthy investments of your time. If there's a worthy site I've omitted thus far, please let me know about it.

Mets sign Tony Clark to a minor league contract
Minor league contract with the same terms as the ones signed by Jay Bell and David Cone, which are: if he's added to the major league roster, he's due $550,000 over two years with performance-based incentives worth up to an additional $200,000. Sounds good to me. Just as quickly as I criticized the Mets for signing Bell to (potentially) be their third baseman, the prospect of signing Tony Clark and giving him a shot to hit his way into some at bats is a fine move. There's very minimal risk here, as Clark has no bargaining power whatsoever coming off a truly abysmal season in Boston.

The Mets are reportedly serious about starting Clark at AAA, which makes a lot of sense, and potentially using him in corner outfield spots if he proves he can handle it. "We're going to see if there's a role where he can fit in on the club," Mets GM Steve Phillips said. "He's open minded to going to Triple-A if things don't work out. We're going to see if he can be more versatile than just a first base-, DH-type of guy," Phillips said. "We figured with an athlete like that and a no-risk look, it seemed to make sense."

It's easy to forget that Clark was an All-Star as recently as 2001 (even as a token representative), when he hit .287/.374/.481 in 497 plate apperances with the Tigers, good for an OPS+ of 125. He's also slugged over .500 five times in his career, and has posted a career line of .270/.347/.483 over 3510 PAs. Clearly, for this kind of commitment, Clark's worth the Mets' time and could help them quite a bit if he's able to revert to form at all. At age 31 (as he'll be this coming September), it seems unlikely that Clark's lost all his skills, so I'm thinking he'll probably do something for the Mets before this chapter in his career is through.

The question I have is why the Mets think he can play the outfield (he's never done so in his major league career), but we'll see what happens with that. If he can somehow handle leftfield, he'd be that much more valuable to a team like the Mets, again, assuming he can regain some of his pre-2002 offensive form.

Notable articles
Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus on Steve Bechler and heatstroke
Chris Kahrl's latest Transaction Analysis (one of the last freebies, enjoy while you can)
Rob Neyer on Brooks Kieschnick and Adam Dunn
Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus (at espn.com) on Roster Turnover
posted by VZW Watcher at 5:41 PM -

 
Okay, that post two days ago was a lie. I'm back now from what was effectively a week-long hiatus and there'll be more content here, I just wanted to get something up now. I'd like to again point our readers over to David Bloom's baseball.mywebportals.net site, which focuses primarily on the Devil Rays, but there's a lot of other good stuff there as well. There'll be a link on the left side of the page very shortly. Finally, on to some content.

ESPN.com Fantasy Baseball
As long as ESPN.com has been offering Fantasy Baseball services, I've been shelling out the $20-30 a year to participate, and Dan's joined me in every season but one. I think that the streak is about to come to an end, as I've found alternative ways to blow through my limited cash supply, like Diamond-Mind Baseball and Baseball Prospectus Premium. All the same, I was interested to see what if any new features had been added to FLB2003 at ESPN, so I took a look at the frontpage I've come to know so well over the past half decade.

I've wondered over the past several years about the necessity of paid Fantasy Sports writers, particularly of the ilk you'll find at this particular site. While there are guys who bring forth information that's not readily available (notably John Hunt of BaseballWeekly, which is now SportsWeekly), many simply rehash information, minus a great deal of detail, that you'll find in other places. It struck me as I perused the site today that I could almost certainly produce this quality of work or better (almost certainly better) if I were being paid to do so, and I've got no expertise or insider contacts whatsoever.

Does it really take an expert to tab Travis Hafner or Erubiel Durazo as a "sleeper"? How about Craig Biggio or Shea Hillenbrand as a potential bust? People who follow baseball know these things. I'd wager the vast majority of the people reading these words right now think Hafner's got a pretty good shot at breaking out this season and putting up some big numbers, even before Brandon Funston (not to pick on him specifically, he just wrote the "sleepers" article) mentioned it.

I know most of you are well aware that there are far better sources for baseball information that the ESPN.com FLB frontpage (including the ESPN.com MLB frontpage, which is pretty decent), but I wanted to mention it.
posted by VZW Watcher at 12:31 AM -

 
There's been a lot going on, but the break in content ends today...I'll have some up this afternoon. Thanks to those who've been checking the site.
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:57 AM -

 
We're getting a lot more traffic than we ever have, largely due to the plugs we've been receiving on Aaron's Baseball Blog, so I'd like to throw him a public thanks for the help and a strong recommendation for all of you who don't read him regularly to start doing so. Hope you're all enjoying the work we're doing here and keep coming back. As always, we welcome any comments/suggestions/questions you might have. I've also been thinking about adding a comments feature to this page so that you can discuss the topics we post on both in a more public setting and without having to leave the page (to send an email). If there's interest in such an addition, please let me know. Thanks for reading.

Mets sign Jay Bell to a minor league contract
You knew when Edgardo Alfonzo was let go and Bill Mueller signed with Boston and Jose Hernandez signed with the Rockies that third base this season at Shea had a chance to be pretty ugly. Well, here it is in all its horrific glory. It's hard to believe that the base manned by the likes of great restauranteur Howard Johnson could now come down to a battle between Ty Wigginton (who is white, which shocked me the first time I saw him) and the amazingly-not-yet-retired Jay Bell. This is only a minor league contract so there's some hope the Mets come to their senses, but it's being widely reported that the Mets are ready to give Bell a shot at competing for the third base job. Listen to (or read) what Mets GM Steve Phillips had to say: "We are happy at this late date to bring a guy with Jay Bell's experience and attitude into our camp and we are anxious to see how he fits into our plans for the 2003 season." Yikes.

Why so down on Bell? Well, he's old. There are plenty of old guys hanging around who can still get the job done though...Bell's just not proven he's able to do that. Last season (at age 36) not only was he hurt and didn't play a game til July 20th, but when he did play he put up a line of .163/.250/.306 in 56 plate apperances. That's really bad, but we can give him the benefit of the doubt, as his injuries may have limited his effectiveness. So what kind of numbers did he put up in 2001? How about .248/.349/.400..."good" for an OPS+ of 89. While the unbelievable sums of money Bell was making over the last few years (he made over $16 million for the last two seasons) doesn't enter into this, why sign him at all, unless you're doing so in some kind of coaching capacity? Does Steve Phillips really believe that Bell can bring something to the table that his current third baseman-to-be (Wigginton) can't? There's very little reason to suspect Bell is going to perform any better than his 2001 level (if he even gets back to that), which is already unacceptable. I just don't see the rationale here.

While Phillips addressed some of the Mets concerns this season (getting rid of Ordonez, improving outfield offense, improving starting pitching), he really, really dropped the ball when it comes to third base. I suppose one could argue that what the Mets are getting at third this season can't be much worse than what they've been getting at short for the past too many years, but I don't think Rey Sanchez is going to set the world on fire offensively either. I still think Wigginton will emerge with the starting job, but the fact that a guy like Bell is even in the running is an indictment of Phillips' failings this offseason. I could never understand why he felt the need to sign Glavine (the Mets starting pitching wasn't that bad last season) over resigning Alfonzo, who ultimately took less money from the Giants and really wanted to stay in New York.

Though this post is dedicated to the shock associated with the signing of Jay Bell, it'd be prudent to also examine Ty Wigginton a bit. In his brief stint (127 plate appearances) with the Mets last season, he put up a very nice .302/.354/.526 line, good for an OPS+ of 135. Of course we've got to be cognizant of the small sample size, but those are terrific numbers and if he can put up anything in that ballpark over the course of 500 plate appearances this season, the Mets would be overjoyed. He'll be 25 this season and the opportunity of a lifetime, to start in the major leagues, has just fallen in his lap...it remains to be seen whether or not he can take advantage of it. He's certainly a versatile enough player (he played first, second, third and both corner outfield spots last season) with enough offensive ability to have a place on a major league roster...it just remains to be seen whether or not he can hold down a starting job.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:56 PM -

 
Orioles sign Rick Helling to a minor league contract
One year minor league deal (though he's very unlikely to spend any time in the minors) that guarantees $1 million if he's on the Opening Day roster and up to another million in incentives. For all the idiocy of the Deivi Cruz signing and other recent moves of the Oriole front office, this is a pretty damn good idea. I don't really understand why no one else signed Helling before this, but it's virtually a risk-free situation for the Orioles and could work out very nicely for them if he can be turned into some good young players come July 31.

Before this signing, the Baltimore rotation was probably going to be something like Rodrigo Lopez, Omar Daal and Sidney Ponson at the top, followed by some combination of Scott Erickson (hurt), Pat Hentgen, Travis Driskill, Jason Johnson, and supposedly (according to manager Mike Hargrove) Steve Bechler and Sean Douglass. That's a lot of guys, which would be fine...except that a lot of them are pretty bad. Rick Helling is a league-average pitcher who throws 200 innings and wins at least 10 games pretty much every year, which you'd think would be a pretty valuable commodity. Apparently not, as Helling somehow wasn't able to find a suitor more attractive than the abysmal Orioles.

If something's wrong with Helling during the spring or they don't like what they see...the Orioles have the option to simply cut bait and he's gone. Of course, chances are he not only makes the team, but does so as one of the team's top four starters along with Lopez, Daal and Ponson, and has the first four months of the season to pitch his way out of Baltimore. If he pitches well, the Orioles can move him for guys who might be part of the next decent Baltimore team, and Helling will get an opportunity to both play for a decent team and increase his bargaining power going into the offseason next year, when he'll be a free agent again.

Mike Flanagan and Jim Beattie haven't been overly impressive in their tenure so far at the helm of the Oriole organization, with their major acquisitions being the signings of the likes of Deivi Cruz and John Valentin as they missed out on premier catcher Ivan Rodriguez, who appeared to many to be heading to Baltimore. However, this is the kind of low-risk, high-reward move that pushes a team in the right direction, and Oriole fans should be pleased (with this, at least).
posted by VZW Watcher at 4:40 PM -

 
I'd like to welcome Bryan's Baseball Banter, run by Bryan Stroh, to the link list at the left. His blog is Cub-centered, but he does a very nice job of covering other areas as well. Check him out if you haven't already done so (and if you have, pay him another visit). Some old/still-in-progress news here.

The Kevin Millar saga drones on
We haven't done any commenting at all on the Kevin Millar situation yet, and I think it's time.

It was stunning to many of us in the United States (this writer included) that an American player of Millar's caliber, who could have fetched several millions of dollars a season to play in this country, would choose to play in Japan of his own accord. But that's exactly what happened initially. Kevin Millar stated on numerous occasions that even if a major league team claimed him on waivers, he would go to Japan and honor the two year contract he signed with Chunichi upon being sold there by the Marlins (at his request). Of course, when the Red Sox did decide to claim him, he changed his tune completely, saying that it was his dream to play in Boston and other things to that effect. At this point, he's saying that he won't go play in Japan under any circumstances, and is trying to weasel out of his just-signed contract with Chunichi. This is despicable behavior, and Millar needs to either pay a very substantial price or go to Japan and do what he's promised to do.

If I were a part of the Chunichi Dragons organization, I'd be fighting tooth and nail to see that this guy has to live up to his contract or is treated like any other holdout, which is exactly what he is at this point. The Japanese Leagues and the MLB should be working together on this, as this lack of accountability is detrimental no matter which side it's on. When a contract is signed, it's signed...there's no way you can go back on that, and professional sports leagues rely on this understanding.

The notion that Millar wants to be in the United States during a potential wartime is absolutely ludicrous. The beginning of this process took place when Millar signed a contract with the Dragons in mid-January, when it was also pretty clear what path we were heading down in terms of taking military action in Iraq. So if his wife had some (very understandable) concerns about living overseas, she should have voiced them before her husband signed the contract with Chunichi. As it stands, Millar's reasoning for wanting to back out of the deal is wholly irrelevant. At this point, it's out of his hands (at least it should be) and in those of the Dragons organization. When you sign a contract, that's got to mean something. What's the point of contracts if you can sign one agreeing to do something and then back out whenever you no longer want to do it? Professional sports requires contracts to have some force behind them...a team can't stop paying a guy with a guaranteed contract because he starts playing poorly or gets hurt...and exactly the same way, a player can't renege on his end of the bargain by refusing to play (or even report, in this case) without dire consequences.

I don't expect anything positive from Commissioner Selig ("Seligula", if we must), who consistently takes the wrong stance on every single issue, but Millar should not be able to play in the major leagues without first being penalized severely. I don't know the specifics of what's going on over in Japan, but what if the Dragons had sold a whole bunch of season tickets to fans who were excited about seeing a real good major league player come to their team? What about the people who purchased Dragons merchandise and the manufacturers who had to put in orders for Kevin Millar jerseys to meet the demand they were likely to face when the season begins? This is an issue which affects far more than Millar himself, and the MLB has to be cognizant of that. If there aren't serious consequences to Millar's actions, it's setting a very dangerous precedent for the future of contracts in the increasingly international game of professional baseball.

I have no idea what would be fair in this case (right now, anyway)...and I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the matter.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:16 AM -

 
I wasn't planning on getting anything posted at the moment, but in light of our big shiny plug over at Aaron's Baseball Blog, I figure we'll be getting a few people over here checking out the site today. Welcome to all of you who haven't visited before...hope you like what you read and remember us in the future when you've got a hankering for some good baseball writing or are looking to add some links to your site (if you've got one). Any comments/suggestions/questions/requests are very welcome: drop us a line at feedback@thedump.org.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:54 AM -

 
Didn't post yesterday, there's just not a whole lot of news at present. I've kicked around the idea of doing a more general season preview/prediction piece, and maybe that'll happen over the next month...just definitely not ready yet. The biggest story of the last 48 hours or so is the retirement of David Justice, so I'll try to cover that briefly here. In really exciting news, the A's and Mariners pitchers and catchers are reporting today.

Justice is done
As a Yankee fan, I mostly fondly remember David Justice as being a godsend during the 2000 season when he came over from Cleveland (in a ridiculously one-sided trade for Ricky Ledee) and took the team over offensively, posting a sensational .305/.391/.585 line in 78 games (317 plate appearances) and helping the Yanks win their third consecutive World Series title. Of course, he was nowhere near the same player when he came back for the his first and only full season as a Yankee in 2001, and stunk on wheat in the World Series that year against the Diamondbacks, so my last memories of his career in pinstripes aren't all that positive. Still, when I think of David Justice, I think of his success in 2000, all those playoff appearances, Halle Berry, and most of all, that home run he hit in Game 6 of the World Series in 1995 to clinch it for the Braves.

Much is made of the ridiculous number of postseason games in which Justice played, which is impressive...but of course it's counter-balanced by the fact that he was rarely the best player on his team and of course he's playing in an era when there are many more playoff teams than in years past. Additionally, there's a fair amount of luck involved...instead of being traded to teams like the Indians, Yankees and A's, he could easily have ended up in Milwaukee, Kansas City or Tampa. Regardless, 112 postseason games in an unbelievable number, and he's got two rings to his credit, both of which he had a pretty large part in winning.

It would have been nice to see Justice stick around, as he could probably have been a solid fourth outfielder/part time DH for another couple of years. His OPS+ numbers over the last two years have been pretty mediocre (100 in 2001, 106 last year) and there's no question he was in the decline phase of what's been an excellent career. I suppose he's aware of that and seeing as he hasn't got a contract, he wants to hang it up before he becomes worthless, and there's something to be said for that, especially since he's done just about everything a professional athlete can hope to (shy of winning MVPs and becoming a Hall-of-Famer). A quick look at his achievements:

1990 NL Rookie of the Year
Two-time All-Star (1993, 1994)
Top five finish in MVP voting twice (1993 - #3, 1997 - #5)
Two-time World Series Champion (1995 - Atlanta, 2000 - Yankees)
2000 ALCS Most Valuable Player
300+ career homeruns, 1000+ career RBI, 1500+ career hits
lifetime OPS+ of 128 over 1610 career games

That's a hell of a career...one of those guys who isn't a Hall of Famer and isn't real close...but one of the better players of his day who's not in the conversation. Speaking of conversation (not real conversation, but lots of typing and responses to what other people have typed) there's a lot of good information on Justice being bandied about over at baseballprimer.com on this thread, which is a pretty good read. There's some good information on postseason statistics as they relate to Justice over at Mike's Baseball Rants, and Aaron Gleeman's got some commentary on his career as well. All three are recommended if your Justice/retirement appetite isn't yet sated.

Anyone else think of Justice as a more talented, baseball-playing Rick Fox?
posted by VZW Watcher at 6:17 PM -

 
We've been omitting stories here and there, but hopefully I'll have a chance to catch up a bit this weekend. In exciting news for Dan and I, we've joined a Diamond Mind Baseball league which was recommended to us by our friend and blogger extraordinaire Aaron Gleeman. We're just first getting our feet wet and our roster in order, but we'll probably be letting our loyal readers in on some of the team's exploits throughout the season. In other news, I'm waiting anxiously for my Baseball Prospectus 2003, which was to be shipped out on February 1st. I ordered my copy through the quickest means possible (according to the BP site), direct from the warehouse, so it wouldn't have to go through a third party and I'd have it in my hands soon. It's February 6th now, and there's been no word anywhere on bp.com that the books have been shipped or anything at all really. Hope we hear something...or better yet, receive the book...before too long. On to baseball.

Travis Lee to Tampa?
I haven't seen any terms bandied about at this point, but I'm going to assume we're not talking about big money here. While we can all agree that Lee's not lived up to the very high expectations the Diamondbacks had for him when he was signed to that mammoth $10 million bonus, he's not been totally brutal either...he's at least played well enough to keep his job in Philly up until this year. Travis Lee is not the starting first base on a championship-caliber team. However, the Devil Rays are nowhere near a .500 team, let alone a championship one. Before this move, the likely scenario would be infield corners of Aubrey Huff (not terrible) at first and Jared Sandberg (yes, terrible) at third. If this comes to pass, Huff can move back to third, Lee can take over at first, and Sandberg can whine some more about not being handed a job. This is really a situation where you've got to select the lesser of two evils. It's possible, at 28 (as Lee will be next season) that there's some improvement left in him, and when your alternative is putting Jared ".229/.305/.444" Sandberg out there on a regular basis, this is very defensible. For right now, I like this for the Devil Rays and for Lee, who probably realizes that Tampa is one of the only places he can get regular playing time.

I've just spent a moment looking at Lee's entry at baseball-reference.com, and his most similar batter (with a similarity score of 956) is Randy Milligan. I haven't been on this planet watching baseball for all that long, but I clearly remember Milligan, a pudgy first baseman best known for his reasonable success in Baltimore over the four year span between 1989 and 1992. I'm about a decade late on this...but man, Randy Milligan was really a pretty decent player, significantly better than Travis Lee has been thus far. That said, there's a pretty significant age discrepancy at work, as Milligan was 27 by the time he got any real shot in the majors, where Lee has been facing big league pitching since 1998 (age 23) in Arizona. Partly because I don't know that we'll ever get back to him, I'm going to run down a few of Milligan's very solid numbers.

Age 27 (1989): .268/.394/.458, OPS+ 143 (124 games)
Age 28 (1990): .265/.408/.492, OPS+ 155 (109 games)
Age 29 (1991): .263/.373/.406, OPS+ 120 (141 games)
Age 30 (1992): .240/.383/.361, OPS+ 108 (137 games)

split between Cincinnati (83 games) and Cleveland (19 games):

Age 31 (1993): .299/.423/.434, OPS+ 131

What happened to this guy? That age 30 year isn't great and the slugging percentages at the end there are low for a first baseman, but Milligan could hit and had real good plate discipline. Let's compare him to another light hitting first baseman of today, Doug Mientkiewicz (who is unquestionably a superior fielder).

Age 25 (1999): .229/.324/.330, OPS+ 66 (118 games)
Age 27 (2001): .306/.387/.464, OPS+ 123 (151 games)
Age 28 (2002): .261/.365/.392, OPS+ 104 (143 games)

Randy Milligan's a better hitter by a substantial margin. This is not meant to knock Mientkiewicz by any means, I was just trying to come up with as close a comp (offensively) as I could for Milligan who's active right now...a first baseman who doesn't post real high slugging percentages. Another relatively close comp according to similarity scores is Marlins first baseman Derrek Lee.

Age 22 (1998): .233/.318/.414, OPS+ 94 (141 games)
Age 24 (2000): .281/.368/.507, OPS+ 122 (158 games)
Age 25 (2001): .282/.346/.474, OPS+ 113 (158 games)
Age 26 (2002): .270/.378/.494, OPS+ 131 (162 games)

Some nice seasons here, and pretty close to Milligan in terms of value, albeit in more playing time and substantially younger. But if Randy Milligan was even close in value to a guy like Derrek Lee (which our numbers indicate he was)...why was he out of baseball so quickly? His career ended after a poor 42 game stint in Montreal in 1994, at the fairly young age of 32. If any of our readers have any background on this...I'd really like to know what happened to Randy Milligan.

Finally, a familiar numbers presentation for the man who should be the centerpiece of this entry, Travis Lee. Based on these, he really looks like the worst player of the bunch, and he probably is. It'll be interesting to see how Lee's career develops from here, whether he and the Devil Rays are able to come to terms or not. I think it'd be the best move for both parties at this point.

Age 23 (1998): .269/.346/.429, OPS+ 102 (146 games)
Age 24 (1999): .237/.337/.363, OPS+ 80 (120 games)
Age 25 (2000): .235/.342/.366, OPS+ 78 (128 games)
Age 26 (2001): .258/.341/.434, OPS+ 101 (157 games)
Age 27 (2002): .265/.331/.394, OPS+ 98 (153 games)

As always, thanks for taking a little time and visiting the dump's sportslog. If you've got any comments or questions, please drop us a line.

EDIT: The deal's apparently done, so Travis Lee will indeed be in Tampa next season.

posted by VZW Watcher at 7:33 PM -

 
Okay, that took a bit longer than I hoped it would.

"Charles" Bronson Arroyo claimed by the Red Sox
Going to a high school in New York with many kids of foreign descent, I noticed the very odd trend that many of them had typical American last names as their first name. For instance, a good friend of my brother's is named Johnson. That's his first name. I had classes with a kid named Williams. Not William...Williams. You see this a little bit in the baseball realm as well, with young guys like Jackson Melian banging around the minor leagues. My assumption has always been that people moving to the United States (or who just dream of being able to do so at some point) want their children to be able to fit in with American society, and they figure that if they give their kids what they think of as an "American" name, that'd help. Of course, because they're in fact last names, it sounds kind of stupid, at least to me. I could be totally wrong about the motivation here...I just can't think of any other explanation for it.

Of course, there are American-born, American-bred people with last names for first names too though. Every so often you'll hear about someone named Lennon or something like that. Generally, this is done to honor someone who the parents admire a great deal, just as you might name a child after a relative to pay respect to them. I like to think that this is the case for Bronson Arroyo, who hopefully is named after cinematic legend Charles Bronson, most notably the star of the Death Wish series of films (one of my all-time favorites).

So that's enough intro. This doesn't cost the Red Sox anything, other than the cost of the waiver claim, as Arroyo doesn't make much. This is a good risk and exactly the kind of thing I'd like to see my team doing rather than signing guys like James Baldwin. While he hasn't had any sustained major league success yet, he's also only 26 heading into the 2003 season, and if he spends the entire year filling out the AAA roster...so what? If he never pitches for the Red Sox, the only thing lost is time in the minors (significant only if he were blocking the non-existent Red Sox pitching prospects in the minors) and his minimal salary. This is an extremely low-risk pickup that may well turn out to be nothing...but it could also pay off for the Red Sox if he turns into a viable fifth starter should Fossum falter, or long man out of the bullpen.

I should note that Arroyo posted really nice numbers at AAA Nashville (Pirates affiliate) last season, where he pitched in 22 games (21 starts), allowing 126 hits, 28 walks and 57 runs (47 earned) over 143 innings. Over that span, he struck out 116, threw 3 complete games (2 shutouts) and was 8-6 with a 2.96 ERA. Nashville's not Boston, but numbers like those are an indication that the guy's got some ability to get hitters out. It's notable that he's improved his strikeout rate over the past several years, posting a pretty decent rate during his brief stint with the Pirates last year as well, striking out 22 over 27 innings (7.3 K/9 IP) as compared to his previous and less successful major league showings (4.0 K/9 IP in 2001 over 88.1 innings, 6.3 K/9 IP in 2000 over 71.2 innings). Perhaps this is a sign he's doing something different and bodes well for his success going forward...but I'm no scout, so I don't know. I do know that this is the kind of smart move that'll help the Red Sox going forward.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:40 PM -

 
There'll be more stuff up here before too long, but I wanted to get something posted to whet the voracious appetite of our readers. We'd like to call to attention that we're now linked at baseball.mywebportals.net, which appears to be a pretty comprehensive baseball link site run by a gentleman named David Bloom. We appreciate the assistance in growing this site's readership. Be back with some real content (on the Red Sox claiming Arroyo, among other things) soon.

EDIT: We're now also linked at clutch hits, which should be a big step in increasing the traffic and visibility of this site. Those of you who are coming here from there, welcome...we hope you enjoy what you read and come on back. If you've got any feedback or suggestions for us, please let us know. Thanks for visiting.
posted by VZW Watcher at 6:44 PM -

 
Here's some more. If you enjoy this site, let other people know about it.

Another Glavine and a Butler join the Mets organization
Didn't the Mets already sign Glavine? Yes...that was Tom Glavine, a borderline Hall-of-Fame pitcher who will be one of the team's top two starters this coming season, along with Al Leiter. What I'm talking about here is the signing of 30-year old first baseman and professional brother Michael Glavine to a minor league contract. Man, I really wish my brother could hook me up like that. According to the article that I've linked at the top of this entry, Brother Glavine played 23 games at AAA Richmond (in the Braves organization, of course) where he hit a whopping .136 with four RBIs. Last season, according to the same article, he played in the Independent Atlantic League with the storied Somerset Patriots, batting .273 with 21 homers and 66 RBIs in 125 games. This is terrific. I'd love to be able to do something like this for my family. Rather than supporting him with his millions (which may happen anyway), Tom's hooking his brother up with a job he presumably loves but would have no shot at persuing professionally in under any other circumstances. No, there's no real point to posting this piece of "news", but who doesn't like little nepotism here and there? Oh, unless you're the guy who doesn't get a spot on a roster because it's occupied by Mr. Glavine.

The other part of this article is about long time major league centerfielder Brett Butler, who retired in 1997. He's been out of professional baseball since then (apparently recovering from some post-career surgeries in his shoulder), but has done some very low level coaching and has a jones to get back to the bigs. Is it just me, or are a hell of a lot of guys expressing interest in becoming managers (or general managers) who have no real experience other than having played? Between Cal Ripken (who wanted the Orioles GM job), Gary Carter (who's expressed interest in managing) and Butler, it's stood out to me. Anyway, for the time being, Butler will operate as a minor league instructor...I can't see how having a guy with as much experience as he's got could hurt. I'll always remember Butler for his distinctive, angular face...the man has a hell of a jaw, if I'm remembering him right. Kinda like Willem Dafoe. It's annoying as hell to look up information/pictures of this guy as he's got the same name, ridiculously, as that awful woman comedian. I'll never forget hearing about Brett Butler getting a television show as young boy and being totally confused, wondering what he'd done to get a show and if it wouldn't conflict with his baseball schedule. Good to see he's healthy and back in baseball.
posted by VZW Watcher at 9:13 PM -

 
Just shameful. The lack of updates over the past couple days has been a result of a convergence of not much news and being occupied with other things. I realize a lot of baseball blogs don't update over the weekend, but as we're trying to bust into this field and get some consistent readers, we're trying to be as content-laden as possible and update a lot. So here we go.

Burrell signs six year, $50 million extension with Phillies
First of all, Pat Burrell is worth this kind of commitment, so good for the Phillies for being able to recognize that and lock him up for awhile (he'll be 32 by the time this deal is up in 2008). The structure of the contract is bizarre, as it's extremely heavily backloaded for some reason...perhaps to offset the cost of Kevin Millwood this season, which is going to run the Phillies almost $10 million. Anyway, Burrell gets paid just $1 million in 2003, $4 million in 2004, $7 million in 2005, $9.5 million in 2006, $13 million in 2007 and $14 million in 2008 (according to espn.com). While this is obviously going to get a little bit hairy in 2007 and 2008 (as he may not be worth $13+ million a season), his average salary each year over the life of the contract is about $8.3 million, which strikes me as pretty reasonable for a guy like Burrell. Just looking at his raw offensive numbers from 2002 (only his second full season in the majors), he posted a line of .282/.376/.544, which is pretty damn good. While he's not a terrific outfielder, he hasn't been one all that long and is only 26, so there's some room and time for improvement. In any case, his offensive abilities more than outweigh his defensive deficiencies. Taking a quick look at guys similar (along with their similarity scores) to Burrell at his age as of the end of the 2002 season, courtesy of the indispensible baseball-reference.com:

1. Jesse Barfield (946)
2. Carlos Lee (938)
3. Albert Belle (938)
4. Mike Marshall (936)
5. Fred McGriff (933)
6. Richie Sexson (933)
7. Willie Stargell (932)
8. Paul Konerko (931)
9. Richard Hidalgo (929)
10. Greg Walker (928)

There are some pretty good names on that list, and Burrell's got a shot to be as good as any of them (I'm referring to the good ones, not Greg Walker or Mike Marshall, and they weren't all that bad either) over the next 10-15 years if he can continue to improve his plate discipline. He's shown the ability to improve, as his walk total rose dramatically (from 70 to 89) last year as his OBP rose 30 points (.346 to .376), which is a really good sign. This contract locks Burrell up through much of his peak and seems a wise investment for the Phillies, who are doing a nice job of solidifying some major cogs in their lineup for years to come in Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome and now Pat Burrell.

posted by VZW Watcher at 6:31 PM -