the dump's sportslog - baseball analysis

2.08.2003

 
Didn't post yesterday, there's just not a whole lot of news at present. I've kicked around the idea of doing a more general season preview/prediction piece, and maybe that'll happen over the next month...just definitely not ready yet. The biggest story of the last 48 hours or so is the retirement of David Justice, so I'll try to cover that briefly here. In really exciting news, the A's and Mariners pitchers and catchers are reporting today.

Justice is done
As a Yankee fan, I mostly fondly remember David Justice as being a godsend during the 2000 season when he came over from Cleveland (in a ridiculously one-sided trade for Ricky Ledee) and took the team over offensively, posting a sensational .305/.391/.585 line in 78 games (317 plate appearances) and helping the Yanks win their third consecutive World Series title. Of course, he was nowhere near the same player when he came back for the his first and only full season as a Yankee in 2001, and stunk on wheat in the World Series that year against the Diamondbacks, so my last memories of his career in pinstripes aren't all that positive. Still, when I think of David Justice, I think of his success in 2000, all those playoff appearances, Halle Berry, and most of all, that home run he hit in Game 6 of the World Series in 1995 to clinch it for the Braves.

Much is made of the ridiculous number of postseason games in which Justice played, which is impressive...but of course it's counter-balanced by the fact that he was rarely the best player on his team and of course he's playing in an era when there are many more playoff teams than in years past. Additionally, there's a fair amount of luck involved...instead of being traded to teams like the Indians, Yankees and A's, he could easily have ended up in Milwaukee, Kansas City or Tampa. Regardless, 112 postseason games in an unbelievable number, and he's got two rings to his credit, both of which he had a pretty large part in winning.

It would have been nice to see Justice stick around, as he could probably have been a solid fourth outfielder/part time DH for another couple of years. His OPS+ numbers over the last two years have been pretty mediocre (100 in 2001, 106 last year) and there's no question he was in the decline phase of what's been an excellent career. I suppose he's aware of that and seeing as he hasn't got a contract, he wants to hang it up before he becomes worthless, and there's something to be said for that, especially since he's done just about everything a professional athlete can hope to (shy of winning MVPs and becoming a Hall-of-Famer). A quick look at his achievements:

1990 NL Rookie of the Year
Two-time All-Star (1993, 1994)
Top five finish in MVP voting twice (1993 - #3, 1997 - #5)
Two-time World Series Champion (1995 - Atlanta, 2000 - Yankees)
2000 ALCS Most Valuable Player
300+ career homeruns, 1000+ career RBI, 1500+ career hits
lifetime OPS+ of 128 over 1610 career games

That's a hell of a career...one of those guys who isn't a Hall of Famer and isn't real close...but one of the better players of his day who's not in the conversation. Speaking of conversation (not real conversation, but lots of typing and responses to what other people have typed) there's a lot of good information on Justice being bandied about over at baseballprimer.com on this thread, which is a pretty good read. There's some good information on postseason statistics as they relate to Justice over at Mike's Baseball Rants, and Aaron Gleeman's got some commentary on his career as well. All three are recommended if your Justice/retirement appetite isn't yet sated.

Anyone else think of Justice as a more talented, baseball-playing Rick Fox?

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