the dump's sportslog - baseball analysis

3.04.2004
Bill Bavasi's winter-to-date (Seattle Mariners)
 
The notable moves made by the Seattle Mariners under Bill Bavasi since he was hired on 11/07/03. Please send any comments/omissions/questions/feedback here.

11/19/03 -
Signed Raul Ibanez to a three year, $13.25 million contract.

    As the first move in his tenure as GM, Bavasi chose to sign Raul Ibanez to be his starting left fielder - effectively giving up on either Randy Winn (see 12/11/03) or Mike Cameron, who would sign with the Mets in December. Ibanez has been a pleasant surprise in Kansas City the last three years, but this contract keeps him in Seattle through his 32-34 year old seasons - his peak has likely passed. And he moves from an excellent hitting environment at Kauffman Stadium to a decidely tough environment in which to hit in Safeco Field, while also hurting the outfield defense as a whole by replacing Cameron with Ibanez and shifting Winn to center.

12/07/03 -
Offered salary arbitration to Pat Borders.
Signed Shigetoshi Hasegawa to a two year, $6.3 million contract.

    Hasegawa's turning 36 in August, and age is bound to kick in eventually...but there's no getting around the fact that he was terrific in 2003 and has been real good since arriving in Seattle. $3 million plus per year over two years seems pretty reasonable, even if he regresses a bit and ends up somewhere between his 2002 and 2003 seasons. I really don't know what to say about Pat Borders. He's supposedly retiring (though, as you'll see, he's back at spring training this year)...so why offer arbitration? I have no idea.

12/09/03 -
Signed Eddie Guardado to a three year, $13 million contract. (club/player options for 2005 and 2006, $13 million guaranteed)

    This is really a one year deal with both player and club options...either way, he's guaranteed $13 million and has incentives that could make it worth $17 million. Guardado's a nice pitcher, very durable and reasonably effective, but this is a lot of money for 65 innings a season, especially if the team isn't a contender.

12/11/03 -
Signed Ryan Franklin to a two year, $4.1 million contract.
Signed Randy Winn to a three year, $11 million contract. (mutual option for 2006, $11 million total guaranteed)
    Like the rest of the rotation, Franklin was quite good in 2003, pitching 212 very solid innings. He's coming off basically three solid years in the majors and is old enough (31 this season) that injuries really shouldn't be a big concern. $2 million per for the kind of work he's done thus far is a steal, he's not great, but almost every team could use a Ryan Franklin. Winn was resigned for significantly more money and effectively booted Mike Cameron out the door (he would sign a week later with the Mets). He's nowhere near the centerfielder that Cameron is (offensively or defensively), but his offensive contributions will look significantly better in center than they did in left (he hit .295/.346/.425 last year).

12/14/03 -
Signed Carlos Guillen to a one year, $2.5 million contract.
    Just retained Guillen here, he was nearly traded to Cleveland for Omar Vizquel and finally was off to Detroit within a month.

12/15/03 -
Acquired Chris Buglovsky from the Colorado Rockies. (for Allan Simpson)
Acquired Quinton McCracken from the Arizona Diamondbacks. (for Greg Colbrunn)
Traded Greg Colbrunn to the Arizona Diamondbacks. (for Quinton McCracken)
Traded Allan Simpson to the Colorado Rockies. (for Chris Buglovsky)

    Colbrunn is a lefty masher who can play first base - not a guy you'd want in there everyday, but certainly a productive player if he's spotted correctly. Trading him for Quinton McCracken, who will probably be the fourth outfielder on this team and flat out stunk in 2003, is simply idiotic. I know nothing of Buglovsky other than that he was a passable, 24-year old starter at AA Tulsa last year. Simpson's a 26-year old AAA reliever.

12/17/03 -
Signed Scott Spiezio to a three year, $9.15 million contract with a club option for 2007 ($3.25 million, $250K buyout).

    Signed to be the new third baseman, filling the hole left by the spectacularly disappointing and already on his way out Jeff Cirillo. Spiezio's never impressed me - he's been a pretty average/lousy hitter for a first baseman, not providing near the power you'd like from that spot. As a third baseman, his offensive contributions are a little more valuable, and but you're going to have to live with .265/.330/.450 from him, and for $3 million a season, it's a waste of resources. Expecting any more than than a place holder until someone else is ready would be foolish.

12/18/03 -
Signed Ichiro Suzuki to a four year, $44 million contract extension.

    I know Suzuki's been a very productive player, and I know he had the organization over a barrel, threatening to walk if he didn't have a new, long-term deal heading into the 2004 season. But this still seems a bit excessive. I'm sure he brings in a lot of money through merchandising and Japanese interest, but this is a lot of money and a lengthy commitment to a guy who relies so much on his speed and whose walk rate took such a precipitous decline last year (from 68 in 647 at bats in 2002 to 36 in 679 at bats in 2003). I think this might look bad in a few years.

12/20/03 -
Signed Freddy Garcia to a one year, $6.875 million contract.

    The team supposedly looked into trading him, considered non-tendering him, and then decided to resign him to a one year contract for a pretty sizable sum. The team isn't relying on him as its ace, and has here a pitcher who was damn good as recently as two years ago and is still young enough (28) to turn it around. It's a lot of money (money that could've gone into pursuing guys like Vladimir Guerrero or retaining Mike Cameron), but the Mariners could do worse than taking one more shot with Garcia. Given that the trade market was so unappealing for him over the course of the offseason and that the Mariners don't have as good a team as they have the past few years, maybe he can increase his stock with some good work over the first couple months and the team can ship him elsewhere and move forward. We'll see.

01/05/04 -
Acquired Vince Faison from the San Diego Padres. (with Kevin Jarvis, Wiki Gonzalez and Dave Hansen for Jeff Cirillo, Brian Sweeney and $4.775 million)
Acquired Wiki Gonzalez from the San Diego Padres. (with Kevin Jarvis, Dave Hansen and Vince Faison for Jeff Cirillo, Brian Sweeney and $4.775 million)
Acquired Dave Hansen from the San Diego Padres. (with Kevin Jarvis, Wiki Gonzalez and Vince Faison for Jeff Cirillo, Brian Sweeney and $4.775 million)
Acquired Kevin Jarvis from the San Diego Padres. (with Wiki Gonzalez, Dave Hansen and Vince Faison for Jeff Cirillo, Brian Sweeney and $4.775 million)
Traded Jeff Cirillo to the San Diego Padres. (with Brian Sweeney and $4.775 million for Kevin Jarvis, Wiki Gonzalez, Dave Hansen and Vince Faison)
Traded Brian Sweeney to the San Diego Padres. (with Jeff Cirillo and $4.775 million for Kevin Jarvis, Wiki Gonzalez, Dave Hansen and Vince Faison)

    They really wanted to get rid of Cirillo, and they did - unfortunately, I'm not sure they got much back they'll be able to use. The best player coming from San Diego in this trade is probably Dave Hansen, who can pinch hit, get on base and play first or third in a jam. Wiki Gonzalez is a passable backup catcher, but the team's already got two of those in Dan Wilson and Ben Davis. Kevin Jarvis is okay, but he's overpaid (due $4.25 million this year) and not likely to see a whole lot of meaningful work. Vince Faison is a former first rounder (in 1999) who hasn't done much in the San Diego system. Ultimately, this is a transparent dump of Cirillo (who deserves to be dumped, he's been terrible) and not much more.

01/08/04 -
Acquired Juan Gonzalez from the Detroit Tigers. (with Ramon Santiago for Carlos Guillen)
Acquired Ramon Santiago from the Detroit Tigers. (with Juan Gonzalez for Carlos Guillen)
Signed Rich Aurilia to a one year, $3.5 million contract.
Traded Carlos Guillen to the Detroit Tigers. (for Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez)

    With the signings of Spiezio to man third and now Aurilia, Guillen became expendable and was moved to Detroit for not much. If you remember, Guillen was nearly traded earlier in the offseason to Cleveland for Omar Vizquel, and I guess this is a little better than that would've been. Aurilia's reputation as a good hitter is based on one year (2001, when he hit .324/.369/.572)...the rest of his career has been pretty average. $3.5 million doesn't seem like a ton for average production from short, but all these contracts add up...ultimately, you'd think the money being spent on the likes of Aurilia, Garcia, Suzuki, etc. could've been spent bringing in a big free agent. But no. Santiago is still young, but he was terrible in regular duty last season in Detroit. I have no idea who this Juan Gonzalez, supposedly a shortstop, is.

01/09/04 -
Designated Ryan Anderson for assignment.

01/13/04 -
Outrighted Ryan Anderson to AAA Tacoma.

01/16/04 -
Invited Craig Anderson to spring training.
Invited Travis Blackley to spring training.
Invited Shin-Soo Choo to spring training.
Invited Adam Jones to spring training.
Invited Jose Lopez to spring training.
Invited Mickey Lopez to spring training.
Invited Luis Oliveros to spring training.
Invited Rene Rivera to spring training.
Invited Randy Williams to spring training.
Invited A.J. Zapp to spring training.
Signed Hiram Bocachica to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
Signed Pat Borders to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
Signed Bucky Jacobsen to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
Signed Mike Myers to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
Signed Jose Nunez to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
Signed George Sherrill to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

    Several interesting players here. A few legitimate prospects in Blackley, Choo, Jose Lopez and Rene Rivera, some borderline guys in Adam Jones and George Sherrill and some who actually have a shot at making the big league roster out of camp in Bocachica and Mike Myers.

01/19/04 -
Signed Joel Pineiro to a three year, $14.5 million contract. (avoided arbitration)

    Pineiro's a terrific pitcher and a joy to watch, so this seems awfully reasonable. He and Jamie Moyer should be 1-2 (in some order) in 2004.

01/20/04 -
Signed Gil Meche to a one year, $1.95 million contract. (avoided arbitration)

    While nobody knows exactly what they're going to get with Meche (whether he'll fufill his once-great promise or not), he was effective and healthy last season, and $2 million is probably a reasonable gamble. If he can make 30 starts again (he made 32 last year, easily a career high), he's certainly worth it.

01/27/04 -
Released Kazuhiro Sasaki. (Sasaki returned to his native Japan.)

    I don't know what options the Mariners had here...Sasaki wanted to go home, so that's it. He had a nice three year run.

01/29/04 -
Signed Yung-Chi Chen to a minor league contract.

02/09/04 -
Signed Mike Colangelo to a minor league contract.
Signed Ron Villone to a one year, $1 million contract.

    As awesome as his name is, Colangelo's not likely to have much impact - after all, he's got the likes of Quinton McCracken, Hiram Bocachica and (if you look ahead to tomorrow) Eric Owens to contend with! Villone for a million bucks isn't terrible, he'll likely operate as a swingman, making spot starts and pitching in long relief.

02/10/04 -
Signed Terry Mulholland to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.
Signed Eric Owens to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

    While both these guys probably have a chance to stick, I'd take Owens over Mulholland if I had to pick, simply because Mulholland's role is filled a couple of times already and he's without a guaranteed contract. Having lefties around really isn't an issue...they've got Guardado, Mike Myers (if they choose to keep him around) and Ron Villone. Basically, Villone and Kevin Jarvis are guys I would imagine operating as long men/spot starters, and Mulholland would likely do the same. He's also already 41, so he's got something to prove in camp. Owens is a lousy fourth outfielder, but is likely to get a shot at getting on the roster as a reserve along with McCracken, just due to the lack of other options.

As you can hopefully see from these comments, I'm not terribly impressed with Bavasi's work in his first few months on the job, and I think this team will be considerably worse than it was last year (when they went 93-69). If you're a subscriber, Baseball Prospectus's Jonah Keri recently did a two part interview with Bavasi in which he explains the rationale behind some of his moves. It's a good read, so if you're a subscriber and for some reason haven't read it yet, take a look. Finally, there are many great devoted Mariners fans and writers out there that know way, way more about their team than we do, so we encourage you to check them out. U.S.S. Mariner is my favorite, but there are many more linked through their site.

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