Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

 
Schilling to the Red Sox, potentially

If I'm not mistaken, it was reported earlier in this offseason that when the Yankees made inquiries regarding acquiring Curt Schilling, they were told that the Diamondbacks would require both Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano and additional prospects. While I'm assuming the natural recoil to that request on the part of the Yankees helped them to realize how ridiculous and unrealistic it was, if this trade goes through, they've settled for a hell of a lot less here. I understand that the Diamondbacks are trying to move salary so they can address other needs, but this is still a pretty poor return on a top-tier player. It's tough for me to believe that if Arizona went to the Yankees and told them they had this deal on the table from the Red Sox that they couldn't do a bit better. For whatever reason, the players involved in this trade appear to have been agreed upon, so it's solely dependent on Schilling's approval (and the Red Sox giving him the extension he requires) at this point.

Casey Fossum's name has been thrown around in trade talks for the last couple of years, and while he's still got promise, he's far from a sure thing. By the beginning of the 2004 season, Fossum will be 26 years old and has thrown a total of 230 major innings over three seasons, posting a 4.42 ERA while allowing 239 hits, walking 84 batters and striking out 190. His stock was probably highest after the 2002 season in which he posted his best major league numbers, but that's been tempered a bit by his struggles in 19 games (14 starts) in 2003. His strikeout rate (almost one per inning in 2002) declined to just 63 over 79 innings, walking 34 and allowing 82 hits and nine home runs. He may yet have a nice career, but this doesn't look to me like a guy you'd be shooting for as the centerpiece of deal that's sending a pitcher of Curt Schilling's caliber the other way.

As for the other players involved...Brandon Lyon is a guy the Red Sox picked up off the scrap heap before last season, and while he had a decent year in Boston rebounding from an awful 2002 in Toronto, he can't be considered more than a back of the bullpen pitcher based on his career-to-date. Minor league centerfielder Michael Goss is also reportedly heading to Arizona, in organization only...he's apparently very fast, but doesn't have much else going for him, including any serious major league prospects. If you're interested, he hit .245 in the Sally League last year with no power as a 22-year old.

Though Fossum is the better known guy and ready to step into the Arizona rotation immediately, the key to this trade from the Diamondbacks' standpoint may be Jorge de la Rosa. Considered by many one of the best pitching prospects in the Boston system, de la Rosa will be just 23 at the beginning of the 2004 season and will likely begin at AAA, where he finished 2003 (with five starts at Pawtucket). He's struck out close to a batter an inning at pretty much every level thus far, and posted a 6-3 record at AA Portland last year in 22 games (20 starts), striking out 102 and walking 36 while allowing 87 hits over 99.2 innings. I'm no prospect guru, but I'd have to assume that if he continues to pitch well at AAA (as he did in limited action last year), he'll have a shot at the majors as early as next season.

Upon first hearing word of this trade, names like Hanley Ramirez and Kelly Shoppach were being bandied about, and that made sense. Those are the kind of prospects that I'd expect a team to have to give up to get a guy like Schilling, especially when I'd heard demands for players the caliber of solid, proven major league players like Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano made. But the Red Sox have somehow managed to work this trade out while only moving two real prospects, one of whom is old enough that I'm not even sure the tag applies anymore. And does trading Fossum, when you get a guy like Schilling in return, even hurt much? While Fossum is obviously cheaper, he's unlikely to ever have a season like those Schilling has posted in recent years...and cost doesn't appear to be Boston's concern anyway. Much like the Yankees when they trade away someone like Juan Rivera (I realize they haven't traded him, but he's a prime example of an older prospect they've got), it's a low-risk gamble...if Fossum becomes something special in a couple of years, a) he's not far from 30 and b) the Red Sox can go out and sign or trade for someone else to bolster their rotation if circumstances demand it. Schilling's a much better bet than Fossum right now, and that's what matters.

From a Boston perspective, this trade makes oodles of sense. You give up very little for one of the best pitchers in the game and establish a rotation with the potential to be really, really dominant. I've been trying to think of a way to spin so that the Red Sox ultimately come out poorly, which is of course, what I'd love to see...but this is just a terrific move. It's going to be essential from Schilling's perspective that a contract extension be worked out, probably two or three years at something in the neighborhood of $12-15 million per. While that's unquestionably a lot of money and limits options in some other areas, Schilling's one of the few older pitchers you could reasonably shell out eight figures to. Naturally, a championship in any of these three or four years (the 2004 season plus those in the extension) would more than make the contract pay for itself. The only thing I question is what might need to be done to convince Schilling to relocate (as he's living comfortably in Arizona, or so it sounds), and by that I mean hiring a manager he's got connections to in Terry Francona. Here in Boston, I've gotten the impression that the Red Sox were leaning towards doing this anyway, so maybe it's a non-issue...but it seems to me that there might be more desirable, qualified candidates out there, and you certainly wouldn't want this decision to be made because of a potential player's preference. But what do I know? (I am all for the Red Sox hiring Francona, by the way.)

It's been reported that there may be an additional element to this trade which would see Richie Sexson sent from Milwaukee to Arizona in exchange for something cheap, if we know the Brewers at all. It's unclear exactly how this potential deal would affect that one, other than giving the Diamondbacks some reason to make this trade, clearing out some salary for Sexson by moving Schilling. We can address that if and when there are further developments, but for now, this is (potentially, assuming the parties can come to an agreement) a huge win for the Red Sox and a big step towards a championship they weren't too far from last year.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:23 AM -

 
Escobar to Anaheim

You could do worse with $18.75 million than to secure the services of Kelvim Escobar for three years, but there's reason to question the move. There's been an awful lot of talk about how the market is taking a downturn (or about to do so) in terms of player salaries, but how much could a pitcher with Escobar's credentials have expected to get in the most free spending, player-friendly of times? I suppose the days of Darren Dreifort getting $11 million a year are in the past, but this still seems like a lot of money. Escobar's signing seems largely based on potential (you wouldn't pay this much for, say, his numbers from last season over the next three years)...which is a little strange for a guy who's going to be 28 at the beginning of the 2004 season.

While he's certainly got a chance to be an effective #3 or #4 starter in a rotation headed by Jarrod Washburn, Ramon Ortiz and John Lackey (I'm assuming he'll slot in somewhere there), what has he done so far in his career? It's worth noting that he's been jerked around a ton over the course of his time in Toronto, perhaps more than anyone else in recent days, but looking at his career overall, he's been a pretty mediocre pitcher with flashes of brilliance thrown in. The Angels can't have any firm idea of what they're getting here other than a guy who has looked great at times in the past. Seems like a sketchy proposition to me, and not a guy I'd want to guarantee significant money.

On the plus side, the contract will cover Escobar's age 28-30 seasons, so it's not like the Angels are locking up Tom Glavine at big money here. Also, the Angels have stated that they're willing to spend some money this offseason, so perhaps this isn't the only significant move we'll see from them. Additionally, I think we can be pretty sure that Escobar's going to be planted in the rotation and left alone (the Angels have a nice bullpen already and aren't paying him to relieve), so we'll finally get a chance to see what he's able to do with it. He's certainly capable of pitching well enough to warrant this kind of cash, but the Angels spending this kind of money to bring in a player with Escobar's track record doesn't strike me as a terribly sound decision.
posted by VZW Watcher at 11:19 PM -

 
Bam-Tino goes home

Devil Rays get: Tino Martinez.
Cardinals get: Evan Rust, a player to be named and a bunch of cash.

As a Yankee fan, there will always be a place in my heart for Tino Martinez. Though he replaced one of the most beloved Yankees of all-time (and my personal favorite by a wide margin in Don Mattingly), he won the fan base over with his professionalism and more importantly, his solid play and role on four championship teams. While certainly not a Hall-of-Famer or all-time Yankee legend, Martinez has had a really nice, productive career which he's managed to parlay into his current absurd contract.

While Martinez isn't a guy you want playing first base every day on a team that could reasonably contend like the Cardinals (particularly given the money he's making), I still don't see how this makes a ton of sense for St. Louis. While it'd be nice to get the $8.5 million he's due over the remainder of the contract off the books, the Cardinals are picking up $7 million of it as part of the deal and are getting basically nothing back. Never heard of Evan Rust? That's because just about nobody had before this trade was announced. He's a non-descript 25-year old minor league reliever with virtually no prospects of ever being a factor at the major league level. His numbers this past season at AA Orlando and AAA Durham were fine, and it seems conceivable that the Cardinals could give him a shot at some point...but he's unlikely to have a major impact. This appears to be a pure contract dump (we'll have to see who the PTBNL is, I suppose), which would be fine...if, of course, the contract was actually being dumped. It's really not - the Cardinals are just going to be paying Tino to play for the Devil Rays. From Tampa's perspective, you'd like to think they could do a bit better than importing a moderately productive soon-to-be 36-year old, but for $1.5 million, I guess it's a risk you can afford to take.

The Devil Rays went with Travis Lee at first most of last year, and while Tino isn't likely to stick for any length of time, Lee probably wasn't a long term solution either (because he's just not that good), and he's gone now.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:27 AM -

 
Dan and I spoke a bit on baseball matters last night. Here's what we said:

the Daniel Stein (1:34:47 AM): the big rumor today is around soriano and schilling, and it may include sexson as well
MEBarnard (1:35:12 AM): I had nightmares about it during my nap today
MEBarnard (1:36:00 AM): first of all, I really don't like schilling. secondly, he's real old and we don't need more of that. and we'd have to give up our best young player in nick johnson to get him and give him a new deal for a ton of money.
the Daniel Stein (1:36:29 AM): what if its just sory and we keep johnson?
MEBarnard (1:37:53 AM): it's a bit better. but I still don't see it being worth our while. schilling's a year away from free agency and would likely require an extension (2 years or more) at $10+ million a year to come here, and soriano is still arbitration-eligible. soriano's 25 or 26 and schilling is 36.
MEBarnard (1:38:20 AM): if we're trading soriano for pitching, let's get someone like javier vazquez, not schilling.
the Daniel Stein (1:40:12 AM): gammons said either johnson or sory would be gone this offseason, but andy will be back
MEBarnard (1:41:03 AM): I really hope pettitte's back. and that soriano's gone...for carlos beltran, or someone of that approximate age.
the Daniel Stein (1:42:23 AM): edmonds?
MEBarnard (1:42:49 AM): would be a nice deal from both perspectives...beltran's coming up on free agency and the yanks could resign him at big money and fill the void in center, shifting bernie to left and matsui to right...and soriano and berroa would give the royals an inexpensive and good combination up the middle for a few years.
MEBarnard (1:43:04 AM): edmonds is also older. and makes a lot of money.
MEBarnard (1:43:56 AM): ($9 million in 2004, $10 million in 2005, $12 million in 2006 and an option in 2007 with a $3 million buyout)
the Daniel Stein (1:44:12 AM): who plays second if sory for beltran?
MEBarnard (1:44:38 AM): I don't know...luis castillo? todd walker? we'll find someone.
MEBarnard (1:45:47 AM): I'm not crazy about either of them, but the combination of either and beltran would improve the lineup. adding castillo and beltran would really help the defense.
the Daniel Stein (1:46:14 AM): can't boone play second a little too?
MEBarnard (1:46:19 AM): yeah, he can.
MEBarnard (1:46:46 AM): I just think center has to be addressed...whether that's by getting a beltran or signing, say, mike cameron, it was a big and obvious problem last year.
the Daniel Stein (1:47:09 AM): apparently mets will make a big push for him
the Daniel Stein (1:47:16 AM): he's their #2 priority behind shiggy
MEBarnard (1:47:26 AM): I would love to see him in new york on either team...he's a pleasure to watch.
MEBarnard (1:48:05 AM): and I would avoid hasegawa, I think. naturally, it depends how much he's looking for...but do you realize how old he is?
the Daniel Stein (1:48:58 AM): 36?
MEBarnard (1:49:14 AM): he'll be 36 during next season. that's old.
the Daniel Stein (1:50:18 AM): and the bullpen is a final piece, not a basis
MEBarnard (1:50:56 AM): absolutely. the mets have much more important issues to address.
MEBarnard (1:52:40 AM): like virtually everything else. they don't need a first baseman or shortstop. other than that, what's set?
MEBarnard (1:53:35 AM): I suppose catcher. I'm very comfortable at least going into the season with jason phillips and vance wilson there with mike piazza stepping in if necessary.
the Daniel Stein (1:54:42 AM): we're probably going to have to wait a while for signings though
MEBarnard (1:55:09 AM): that's what I hear too. pretty disappointing.
MEBarnard (1:55:47 AM): I just really hope schilling doesn't become a yankee.
the Daniel Stein (1:56:01 AM): even if it didn't cost sory or johnson?
MEBarnard (1:56:19 AM): well, it depends who. I'd certainly trade some guys for him.
the Daniel Stein (1:56:30 AM): and clemens money is free now
MEBarnard (1:57:17 AM): I just think we should be real careful about continuing to commit lots of money to ancient starters.
MEBarnard (1:57:44 AM): we're going to have to overpay for pettitte to keep him. but at least he's (relatively) young.
the Daniel Stein (1:59:15 AM): schilling or millwood?
MEBarnard (1:59:34 AM): millwood's free and schilling's not. so I'd take millwood at this point.
the Daniel Stein (2:00:00 AM): just money
MEBarnard (2:00:28 AM): yeah. to get schilling, we're talking about a lot of money (more than you'd spend on millwood, per year) and one of our best players.
MEBarnard (2:00:48 AM): and he's a lot older.
the Daniel Stein (2:00:52 AM): especially when the problem really wasn't pitching
MEBarnard (2:02:38 AM): yeah. it wasn't at all. and while the staff obviously needs to be retooled (losing wells and clemens, at least), we're returning mussina, contreras and lieber. and possibly pettitte. and I haven't given up on weaver. so that's really not a bad staff.
the Daniel Stein (2:04:13 AM): i'm much happier with contreras going 2/3 innings
the Daniel Stein (2:04:14 AM): his stuff only works the first time through the order
MEBarnard (2:05:39 AM): I can buy that. I do think he's going to get a chance to start though. why don't you hear jorge depaula's name mentioned at all? I realize this is the yankees, and young starters are rarely given a chance, but he certainly made a good impression last year (admittedly in limited work) and he's not that young (25).
the Daniel Stein (2:07:33 AM): is he the 'stud' of the system?
the Daniel Stein (2:07:45 AM): pitching wise
the Daniel Stein (2:07:45 AM): now
MEBarnard (2:07:53 AM): I think he's the top "ready" pitching prospect, yeah.
MEBarnard (2:10:07 AM): you remember his one start last year? he was phenomenal.
the Daniel Stein (2:10:23 AM): wasn't it almost a no hitter?
MEBarnard (2:10:27 AM): yeah.
MEBarnard (2:10:47 AM): obviously we can't base anything on one start. but he's got a good track record too.
MEBarnard (2:11:06 AM): 6.1 innings of one-hit ball against the orioles.
posted by VZW Watcher at 7:16 PM -