Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

 
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O's-Rockies trade
Haven't looked at a trade in this space in some time, but there's one here today.

Baltimore Orioles get: Jack Cust.
Colorado Rockies get: Chris Richard.

I don't see any way this can be made out as anything but a victory for the Orioles. I've not been particularly impressed with anything the Beattie-Flanagan combo has done to date (aside from the cheap Helling pickup, which I like), but this is really positive. Jack Cust gets to an American League team that has very little talent blocking him from taking over a DH job that, at the very least, he deserves a crack at. With the Orioles a total non-contender, Cust now has the opportunity to establish himself as the best hitter in the Orioles lineup (not that that means much), and if he doesn't, what's the big risk? Losing 28 year old injury-risk Chris Richard. That's all. Much is made of Cust's ineptitude at any position defensively, but Richard's nothing special either, though the fact that he can play centerfielder (or at least, that he has in the past) could be a plus at Coors with Preston Wilson currently set to patrol that large section of Coors Field. Coming off his rotator cuff injury, there's no guarantee he'll be able to play the outfield at all, as there are questions about his ability to throw. Richard's basically proven (in his career 952 plate apperances, all since he's been 26) that he's a no great shakes at the plate, posting a career line of .259/.325/.453. Cust's substantially younger (he's 24) and while he's yet to prove anything at the major league level (.179/.309/.254 in 81 career PAs), his ceiling is unquestionably much higher.

I don't really understand this from the Rockies' perspective, given that they've already got a bunch of guys in the outfield mix as good as Richard. I suppose he's capable of filling in at first base should anything happen to Todd Helton (and that is a concern), but couldn't Cust have done the same? Both are a clear drop-off from Helton defensively...maybe I'm just taking too lightly how bad Cust's defense is, as I've admittedly never seen him at first (he's never played there in the majors). In any case, the Rockies were clearly dealing with a situation in which they had no leverage, as Cust is all but useless at Coors with the lack of the DH slot and the need for mobile outfielders. I guess it's nice that they got a reasonably useful guy for him, but it's hard to see how this helps the Rockies much aside from getting a player they can use (even if not much) over a player they can't.

Mondesi/Burnitz/White/Acevedo to San Diego?
I'm home in New York City for a few days and am really enjoying the chance to read my beloved New York Post. Upon perusing today's edition, I came upon this story (linked at the top of this post) which indicates that the Padres are considering going after either the Yankees' Raul Mondesi or the Mets' Jeromy Burnitz. Sure, maybe this is wishful thinking on the part of a New York paper, but it's being reported in San Diego too (such as this article from the San Diego Union-Tribune), so presumably there's been at least some real consideration of such an acquisition.

The Padres certainly have the talent in the organization to trade to either the Mets or the Yankees, but more than likely wouldn't require a whole lot if they were willing to take on the bulk of the salaries involved ($7 million in the case of Mondesi, $11.3 million in the case of Burnitz). Of course, there's a great reason why these two guys are so expendable, which is that they've performed well below their established levels recently. Padres GM Kevin Towers is quoted in the Union-Tribune article saying that he won't "raise the white flag" on the Padres' 2003 season, and he certainly should not, as they've got a team that is young, talented and capable of winning a lot of games, even without the contributions of Nevin and Trevor Hoffman (for at least a good chunk of the season). Regardless of the merits of bringing in a name guy like Burnitz or Mondesi, choosing not to doesn't necessarily indicate any white flag waving, but in this case, simply common sense.

The only way it makes any sense to move on either of these two guys is if the New York teams eat a substantial portion of the money due. Either Mondesi or Burnitz might well be an asset in the Padres lineup, but they're simply not worth taking a big financial risk on at this stage of their careers. An example? How about the fact that the Yankees and Mets both got burned by these same two guys last year?

I'm certainly in no position to judge who's ready and who's not to play at the major level, but it appears based on his numbers at AAA that Xavier Nady could probably do at least a credible job hitting major league pitching. Roberto Kelly, while certainly not anyone's #1 choice (though I'm pleased to see he's still playing) can probably hit a little as well, and is not costing anywhere near what these other guys would. You've got the option of plugging Brian Buchanan into the outfield on a regular basis, or devising some kind of time-sharing arrangement among these three guys.

There's more to this Post article, as it comments on the Padres' interest not only in Mondesi, but also in Rondell White and Juan Acevedo. These guys make a lot more sense, and as the article notes, San Diego will have some money to spend when their insurance on Nevin and Hoffman comes back. Acevedo is making next to nothing with the Yankees and is certainly capable of helping a major league bullpen (2.65 ERA over 74.2 innings in 2002), even as a closer (28 saves last year), if you're into that sort of thing. White's coming off a brutal year, and while he's injury-prone, he's also making less money than either Mondesi or Burnitz (he's in the second year of a two-year, $10 million contract) and is significantly younger, as he'll be 31 next season compared to Mondesi ("32") and Burnitz (34). He's also been consistent throughout his career up until last year, so there's a bit more hope that 2002 was an aberration. In short, he's certainly a better risk than the other two.
posted by VZW Watcher at 6:37 PM -