Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

 
Observations while wondering how quickly MLB.tv games are going to be archived...
Aside from the gruesome Jeter injury, the extent of which is not yet known, this is a great night for the Yankees. Not only did Clemens pitch very well against a damn good lineup, but Jose Contreras has just come in (we're just through the seventh inning as I type this) and struck out the side after giving up a leadoff double to Eric Hinske. The Yanks lead 8-0, including an RBI single by Matsui and homers by Ventura (2-run) and Soriano (grand slam, the first of his career).

On top of that, I had the distinct pleasure of seeing the Red Sox blow a Pedro opening day start at Tampa, taking a 4-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth only to see it blown by Alan Embree and Chad Fox. One strike away from victory, Carl Crawford hit a three-run homer to right-center off Fox to make Lou Piniella's debut a victorious one, winning 6-4. Very enjoyable Opening Day all around, I only wish there were some late games. But there will be, starting tomorrow.
posted by VZW Watcher at 9:37 PM -

 
Opening Day
This is wonderful. Opening Day is such a pleasure, and right now I'm in the process of watching my second and third regular season games of the year (following the Rangers' victory over the Angels last night). I'm utilizing the brand new MLB.tv service to watch the Twins and Tigers, where Brad Radke has pitched really well and the game is flying along. The fans seem to be really into the idea of bringing back a bunch of prominent Tigers from their 1984 championship season, so maybe they sow the seeds for some future fandom this year if nothing else. Mike Maroth has looked really good too, and guys like Santiago, Infante, Pena and Munson, if given a chance to play everyday (and it appears they'll have that chance), have the potential to be useful.

I'm looking forward to the Yankees tonight, where we'll get to see Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay and a boatload of offensive talent. Dan's going to be at the game, lucky bastard that he is, as his going to school in Buffalo provides him with the opportunity to take in a bunch of Jays games a season, particularly versus our beloved Yankees. I assume he'll post a full report of his experience when he returns.

I'll have to take a look at the Braves-Expos game in a bit, as I've been watching Mets-Cubs since the beginning and have seen Tom Glavine get pounded in his Met debut. I'll try to refrain from ripping announcers too often over the course of the season, but "Sut" is really among my least favorite, and he continues to drone on excruciatingly even as I type this. Anybody else feel a little like Darren Baker is the Elian Gonzalez of the sports world?

Predictions (a little late)
I never posted these, so here they are, a little after the gun. Not that it matters, but they'll be here to examine and critique in October.

AL East: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays
AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Indians, Royals, Tigers
AL West: Athletics, Rangers, Mariners, Angels
NL East: Phillies, Braves, Mets, Expos, Marlins
NL Central: Cardinals, Reds, Cubs, Astros, Pirates, Brewers
NL West: Giants, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres, Rockies
AL Wild Card: Red Sox
NL Wild Card: Diamondbacks
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: Barry Bonds
AL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
NL Cy Young: Mark Prior
AL Rookie of the Year: Hideki Matsui
NL Rookie of the Year: Hee Seop Choi

A lot of shockers, huh? Enjoy the season.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:54 PM -

 
Teixeira going north
I guess hitting .333 (26 hits in 78 at bats) with 8 home runs (.756 SLG) in 24 games is enough evidence for the Rangers to make the decision that Teixeira's ready for the major leagues on a regular basis. There's some question as to where he'll slot in on the field, but whether he's playing third, first or DHing, he'll be in the lineup and mashing. It's been written in numerous places by people who know what they're talking about that Teixeira's been ready to hit at the major league level since his sophomore season at Georgia Tech, so while I haven't seen him yet, I'm really looking forward to it. I guess if he can stay in the lineup the entire season and get a year's worth of at bats, he's as good an AL Rookie of the Year candidate as anyone, right there with the ridiculously-eligible Hideki Matsui, who of course has had years of professional experience in Japan but will make his MLB debut this season.

I just mentioned how I haven't seen Teixeira yet, because like many baseball observers, I don't get out to minor league games much and they're seldom shown on television. MLB.com has been showcasing its new MLB.tv service, which I wrote a bit about a week or two ago, and I think it's a great thing which will allow many more to watch out-of-market games at relatively low cost. The Spring Training games, however, were/are being offered at no cost at all, and as such are very accessible to anyone who might be interested in seeing some of baseball's finest young prospects who are on display during March. But...this doesn't seem to have occurred to MLB, as they've seemingly gone out of their way, to deprive interested fans from seeing some of the game's top prospects who are on pace to make an impact this season, most notably Teixeira and 20-year old Tigers starter Jeremy Bonderman. I guess it's no longer a big deal with the season about to begin, but I really wonder why it wouldn't occur to MLB to try to market its promising young players and get people excited about their arrival. But of course, it's a continuation of what has become a disturbing, standard practice of anti-marketing in recent years.

posted by VZW Watcher at 6:01 PM -

 
There's been news and it's time to get back to a regular posting schedule with the season about to belatedly begin. I hope I'm able to live up to that over the next few days, as I'll be away again this weekend. I really think I'll be able to get content up though, so it's really of little interest to you I'm quite sure. It's come to my attention that we're now linked at the relatively new Clark & Addison Chronicle, a very professional looking, semi-regular blog on the Chicago Cubs run by Jason Steffens. I'm more than happy to return the favor, and it's now linked on the left side of the page. Check it out if you haven't already.

Ronnie Belliard's got a job
At the time of his signing with the Rockies (back in January), I wrote this:

I like this a lot. There's not a whole lot to cover at the moment (I don't really care that Pete Rose is being considered for the Canadian Hall of Fame), so it allows me to get at least a little bit excited about minor league contracts being signed by second basemen in their late 20s. Right now, the likely starting second baseman for the Rockies on Opening Day is Brent Butler, and that's pretty crappy. I'm not going to get into much detail (as you can easily check just how crappy the first 498 plate appearances of his career have been here) about his numbers, but they're definitely not what you'd like to see from an everyday player. Ron Belliard, while far from a lock, is a guy who has shown us in the past that he can perform at a pretty high level. If we look back at the first two full seasons of his career in Milwaukee, he posted lines of .295/.379/.429 in 531 PAs (in 1999, at age 24) and then .263/.354/.389 in 667 PAs (in 2000, at age 25). His 2001 wasn't too shabby either, as he slugged .453 over 410 PAs. His 2002 however, was really horrible, and he's been replaced (probably in part due to injury problems which have plagued him every year except 2000) at second in Milwaukee by Eric Young. Whatever. I don't know how much of a shot he's going to get in Colorado, but given who's in front of him, I'd hope he'll get at least a fair crack. His OBP has steadily been dropping for the last few seasons, but there's got to be some hope that he can get back to somewhere near his 1999-2000 form and be a big improvement for the Rockies at second base. Very low risk signing...nice work here by Dan O'Dowd.

Pablo Ozuna's got an ankle sprain, so the job is Belliard's for the moment (though it's apparent from the quotes in the article that the team wants to see what Ozuna can do). This is a great opportunity for Belliard to reestablish himself as a major league starter, and as a guy with real offensive skills, it'd be great to see him make something of it while he's got a shot to do so.
posted by VZW Watcher at 7:56 PM -

 
Sorry for the lack of posting in recent days, Dan and I have both been in transport quite a bit, shuttling around the Northeast. There'll be content up here (hopefully some season previews or something along those lines included) in the next day or two.

In the meantime, it looks like Aaron Gleeman is putting together an exhaustive preview of his own over at his blog, so check that out.
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:20 PM -

 
Gonzo extension
Three guaranteed years for $30 million, with a mutual option for a fourth at $10 million. He's 35 now and will be 38 by the time the guaranteed part of the deal expires. I really don't know what there is to say about this that wouldn't have already occurred to anyone who'd be reading this, but I'll spend a few words on it all the same. It's just amazing that there are still organizations out there who are willing to make eight-figure-a-year commitments to 35+ year old guys who aren't Barry Bonds or Randy Johnson or performing on similar levels. Luis Gonzalez had an amazing 2001 season, one which would have been worthy of an MVP in just about any year in major league history. It's also pretty damn clear that it was as good as it's ever going to get for him and that while he's still a very capable, above-average hitter, his 2001 was more fluke than an indication of what should be expected from him going forward.

Of course, his 2002 numbers (forget about his injury at the end of the year in terms of evaluating his performance, he still played in 148 games) bore that out very nicely. He declined in just about every offensive category, many of them substantially. A few of these dropoffs are listed below.

Rate stats:
AVG: .325 (2001), .288 (2002) = -.037
OBP: .429 (2001), .400 (2002) = -.029
SLG: .688 (2001), .496 (2002) = -.192
OPS+: 176 (2001), 128 (2002) = -48

Raw stats:
Hits: 198 (2001), 151 (2002) = -47
Doubles: 36 (2001), 19 (2002) = -17
Home Runs: 57 (2001), 28 (2002) = -29
RBI: 142 (2001), 103 (2002) = -39

Okay, so I'm simply stating the obvious here: we all knew that Gonzalez would decline and that he did, by a significant margin in many areas. He's just not worth $10 million a season at this point, and it's pretty amazing that while a hell of a lot of people realize this who are completely outside of baseball and have no power to control these things are able to recognize that, those inside can't figure it out. Maybe Joe Garagiola Jr has some information that he's refusing to disclose, but I see no way to justify this. I hope for the D-Backs' sake that he plays well enough over the life of the extension to justify half this money, but I'm not holding my breath. Arizona is an old team that's very heavily reliant on old guys like RJ, Schilling, Gonzalez and other elders like Steve Finley, Matt Williams and company for success. If anything, you'd think they would want to be moving these players to teams that think they need some veterans in exchange for younger, cheaper players they can count on to be around for a few more years. Guess not.

Rob Bell again
It's not much of a surprise that another organization is willing to take a chance on Rob(bie? I still don't know) Bell, and it's nice to see that the Devil Rays are the ones to do it. Tampa is almost certainly going to be starting guys who are inferior to Bell this season, so maybe he's got a chance to stick down there for awhile if he can put any kind of success together.

I don't understand why more borderline major leaguers aren't taking this route (we've now seen it with Travis Lee as well). Tampa's not a terrible place, and they happen to have an abysmal baseball team that could stand to improve at just about every single position, meaning there are plenty of opportunities. While they've got some promising talent on the way up with some of it likely arriving this year, there are certainly going to be jobs that can be won by simply performing well at the AAA level and jumping in when guys on the major league team fail, as some of them inevitably will.
posted by VZW Watcher at 4:38 PM -

 
Watson suspends Piazza and Mota for five games
I really can't say what the proper length of suspension should be for the actions of both Guillermo Mota and Mike Piazza, but one thing is certain in my eyes...Mota's got to be gone longer than Piazza. Not only is that not happening (at least at present, before the appeals process), but Piazza is paying a larger token fine ($3,000) than is Mota ($1,500). In addition to the ridiculousness of having pitchers and position players live by the same rules when it comes to suspensions (because, of course, pitchers aren't expected to play everyday and this isn't taken into account at all), this is a situation in which if Mota doesn't instigate anything, nothing happens. I happened to be watching this particular game as it took place, and I can tell you with absolutely no hesitation that Mike Piazza would happily have gone about his at bat if he weren't hit, there's no question in my mind that this was Mota's fault. In fact, Mota tried to hit Piazza with the first pitch of the at bat, which was pretty clear to anyone watching with some knowledge of the backstory. Piazza stayed in, didn't fly off the handle at that point, and the issue could easily have been laid to rest. Mota refused to let this happen, and we had a scene on our hands.

I've never understood equating retaliation with instigation, as is being done here. Can Piazza really be expected, especially given the history involved here, to just take being thrown at? What kind of example would that set? Much has been written about the incredibly irresponsible act of hurling a baseball at high speed intentionally at a human being and the damage that can be caused as a result. We are very lucky that we don't often have instances where players are badly hurt by pitched balls, but there's no reason it can't happen any given time.

Ordinarily, I think batters need to (and do) show restraint when they are hit, even if there's some doubt as to whether or not their plunking was intentional. The game certainly cannot devolve into a personal war with guys constantly getting hit as revenge, but I think there's a clear distinction here. The Piazza-Mota feud, as far as I know, originated last spring when Mota hit Piazza. Piazza reacted at that point, and an entire year had passed without incident, though the Dodgers and Mets faced each other numerous times in that span. Mota actively chose to resume this idiocy, and has got to pay the price. Piazza's reaction was extreme and deserves some condemnation from the league, but at the same time, it has a responsibility to recognize the villain in this situation...Piazza and Mota just aren't equally at fault. And now the Mets pay the far larger price, losing their star player for five games, while the Dodgers lose a marginal reliever who'll serve his suspension during some games he wouldn't have pitched in anyway. Ridiculous.
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:20 PM -

 
MLB.tv
I'm assuming most of you are somewhat familiar with the new live video webcasting service being launched by MLB.com, so I'll be brief in my description of it. Basically, the MLB is going to be making available live streaming, out-of-market games ("up to" 45 a week, more on that in a minute) for pay. There are options to purchase the entire season for $80, and also month-by-month and individual games. I watched a bit of the Yankees-Red Sox game last night, which was the first of the Spring Training games they're offering as a preview of this service. Being in New York at the moment (although I suppose it wouldn't have mattered even if I was back in Cambridge, given the teams involved) I was blocked from the webcast as it happened, but I was able to check it out later as it was archived. There's another preview game today at 3:00PM between the Chicago teams, so I'll be able to take a look at that.

What I saw last night was pretty impressive...the quality isn't fabulous, but it's certainly good enough to make out what's going on and the sound is absolutely fine (at least it was on my computer). This is substantially cheaper than the MLB Extra Innings package, and obviously far more versatile, particularly for someone with a laptop. The out-of-market restriction is a bit annoying, and I'm not totally sure how they're going to be doing verification. It had me enter credit card information yesterday as I tried to watch the game live, presumably to have me enter (so they could verify it) my billing address. When someone's got a billing address in one market but is in another (as is the case for me), it'll be interesting to see how that's handled. Presumably they have means of checking through the IP address accessing the webcast, but we'll see. Assuming this works and I'd be able to get Yankee games while in Cambridge, I think I'm going to take advantage of the service.

Aside from being able to watch the games live, the really wonderful thing about this is the archiving. Presumably all season, you'll be able to go back and access any game you want (at least the ones they're making available for webcasting), including the ones blacked out because they were on TV in your market. The fact that I won't be able to catch a live Red Sox game isn't nearly as hard to take knowing that I can sit down ten minutes after it's over and watch it then at my own pace.

As far as the "up to 45 games a week" claim is concerned, I don't really understand why anybody would be impressed by that. I want to know the minimum number of games a week..."at least" is what I'm looking for. All that's said here is that they're placing a 45 game cap on it, which isn't particularly appealing, since as a customer I want as many games as possible. Regardless, this looks to be a terrific service, and one I'll most likely be taking advantage of. It'd be nice to see other professional sports leagues follow suit.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:50 PM -

 
I intended to post some comments and links touching on the Kirby Puckett story that's kind of breaking (it's been out there for awhile now, but it's finally coming to a head with the new issue of Sports Illustrated), but I'll just direct you for the time being to Aaron's eloquent commentary on the issue.

Rangers release Rob(bie) Bell
I get some of my baseball news from the excellent Rototimes baseball site, which I encourage you to check out, at the risk of giving away one of my sources. Of course, most news items that appear there require some further investigation and utilization of other more detailed sources, but it's excellent for what it is: a quick rundown of the latest events and a brief comment. Rob Bell's an interesting character, having gone from a decent prospect with the Braves and then the Reds organization to a guy who's been a disappointment with the Rangers after being traded to Texas for fellow failed prospect Ruben Mateo. He's also one of the only pitchers I can recall in recent years to wear a single digit number (Bell has worn #6 with Texas) also with the large and half-season-once dominant Jeff Juden, who wore #7 for the Indians at one point. That always bothered me...how hard is it to stick with tradition and pick a two digit number? Some guys just have to be different, I suppose.

I wasn't planning on posting on this topic (that being that he's been released by the Rangers, I realize I haven't gotten to it yet, but that's the news), but Rototimes' decision to refer to him as "Robbie Bell" caught me offguard. It's a bit similar to the strange name-shifting techniques of former Yankee and current Padre camp attendee Roberto/Bob/Bobby Kelly, though I'm not sure there's any actual reason for this. Has Bell asked to be referred to as Robbie? I've done a little bit of snooping around since I saw this, but to no avail...if you know anything more about this, I'd be very interested to hear. It's certainly possible a name switch has occured and I'm just unaware of it, I can admit to not listening to many Ranger games this spring as of yet, and it's not like he's been involved in many to begin with (he's apparently pitched just one inning).

Bell's really struggled at the major league level (a 5.95 ERA in 384 innings over 70 games, 68 of which have been starts), and while his first season with the Reds in 2000, when he was 23 and posted a 7-8 record in 26 starts with an ERA of 5.00, was an indication there might be good things to come, he really hasn't progressed since then. His rate stats aren't terrible, but suffice it to say that he's not done much to convince anyone to give him another extended shot at the majors. That said, this is a guy who once showed some promise, and a bad team could do worse than throw a minor league contract in the direction of a guy like Bell, who is still just 26, and give him a chance to prove himself worthy of another chance at AAA. In all honesty though, there's not much in his stats to suggest that we're ever likely to hear from Bell at the major league level in any meaningful way again.

Kenny Rogers to Minnesota
Worth a guaranteed $2 million for the 2003 season with up to $500,000 in performance-based incentives. I'm sure Aaron's going to have plenty to say about this later/tomorrow depending on what time of the day or night you read him, so I recommend checking that out. That said, I've got a few brief comments of my own.

Kenny Rogers, for all the problems he had in New York when he was with the Yankees (particularly in the postseason), is real good pitcher who will do a nice job in Minnesota. I remember well the great 1996 playoff he spent with the Yanks where he would start a game, get hammered, and the Yanks would win in spite of his crappy pitching...each of the three times he pitched, once in each series. Forgetting about his New York failures, he's coming off a nice year (3.84 ERA over 210.2 innings, 128 ERA+) in a bad pitcher's park, and while his strikeout rate continues to decline (and has never been particularly good), he's a proven commodity at this point and there's little to indicate an imminent collapse.

I don't think I'd advocate giving a 38-year old like Rogers much more than this, but he's replacing an injured Milton in the rotation and is locked up for just one year, just about the perfect scenario in which to sign him. Yes, he's likely going to take away a rotation spot from Johan Santana and that kinda sucks, but at least you're not hauling in a guy who's a) particularly expensive or b) unlikely to be up to the task. Santana'll be there to be continue to develop in a long relief/spot starter role and to step in if another injury hits the rotation. He's only 24, there's plenty of time for him to develop and become a full-time starter, and he should be an asset to the team whether he's opening games or pitching out of the bullpen in 2002.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:31 AM -

 
Thanks to Aaron Gleeman for the plug, and of course we hope he's feeling better. We're getting a few more hits than usual today, so if this is your first time and you'd like to leave any comments/suggestions on how we can do this better, please do so here or use one of the links on the left side of the page. Thank you.

O's-Rockies trade
Haven't looked at a trade in this space in some time, but there's one here today.

Baltimore Orioles get: Jack Cust.
Colorado Rockies get: Chris Richard.

I don't see any way this can be made out as anything but a victory for the Orioles. I've not been particularly impressed with anything the Beattie-Flanagan combo has done to date (aside from the cheap Helling pickup, which I like), but this is really positive. Jack Cust gets to an American League team that has very little talent blocking him from taking over a DH job that, at the very least, he deserves a crack at. With the Orioles a total non-contender, Cust now has the opportunity to establish himself as the best hitter in the Orioles lineup (not that that means much), and if he doesn't, what's the big risk? Losing 28 year old injury-risk Chris Richard. That's all. Much is made of Cust's ineptitude at any position defensively, but Richard's nothing special either, though the fact that he can play centerfielder (or at least, that he has in the past) could be a plus at Coors with Preston Wilson currently set to patrol that large section of Coors Field. Coming off his rotator cuff injury, there's no guarantee he'll be able to play the outfield at all, as there are questions about his ability to throw. Richard's basically proven (in his career 952 plate apperances, all since he's been 26) that he's a no great shakes at the plate, posting a career line of .259/.325/.453. Cust's substantially younger (he's 24) and while he's yet to prove anything at the major league level (.179/.309/.254 in 81 career PAs), his ceiling is unquestionably much higher.

I don't really understand this from the Rockies' perspective, given that they've already got a bunch of guys in the outfield mix as good as Richard. I suppose he's capable of filling in at first base should anything happen to Todd Helton (and that is a concern), but couldn't Cust have done the same? Both are a clear drop-off from Helton defensively...maybe I'm just taking too lightly how bad Cust's defense is, as I've admittedly never seen him at first (he's never played there in the majors). In any case, the Rockies were clearly dealing with a situation in which they had no leverage, as Cust is all but useless at Coors with the lack of the DH slot and the need for mobile outfielders. I guess it's nice that they got a reasonably useful guy for him, but it's hard to see how this helps the Rockies much aside from getting a player they can use (even if not much) over a player they can't.

Mondesi/Burnitz/White/Acevedo to San Diego?
I'm home in New York City for a few days and am really enjoying the chance to read my beloved New York Post. Upon perusing today's edition, I came upon this story (linked at the top of this post) which indicates that the Padres are considering going after either the Yankees' Raul Mondesi or the Mets' Jeromy Burnitz. Sure, maybe this is wishful thinking on the part of a New York paper, but it's being reported in San Diego too (such as this article from the San Diego Union-Tribune), so presumably there's been at least some real consideration of such an acquisition.

The Padres certainly have the talent in the organization to trade to either the Mets or the Yankees, but more than likely wouldn't require a whole lot if they were willing to take on the bulk of the salaries involved ($7 million in the case of Mondesi, $11.3 million in the case of Burnitz). Of course, there's a great reason why these two guys are so expendable, which is that they've performed well below their established levels recently. Padres GM Kevin Towers is quoted in the Union-Tribune article saying that he won't "raise the white flag" on the Padres' 2003 season, and he certainly should not, as they've got a team that is young, talented and capable of winning a lot of games, even without the contributions of Nevin and Trevor Hoffman (for at least a good chunk of the season). Regardless of the merits of bringing in a name guy like Burnitz or Mondesi, choosing not to doesn't necessarily indicate any white flag waving, but in this case, simply common sense.

The only way it makes any sense to move on either of these two guys is if the New York teams eat a substantial portion of the money due. Either Mondesi or Burnitz might well be an asset in the Padres lineup, but they're simply not worth taking a big financial risk on at this stage of their careers. An example? How about the fact that the Yankees and Mets both got burned by these same two guys last year?

I'm certainly in no position to judge who's ready and who's not to play at the major level, but it appears based on his numbers at AAA that Xavier Nady could probably do at least a credible job hitting major league pitching. Roberto Kelly, while certainly not anyone's #1 choice (though I'm pleased to see he's still playing) can probably hit a little as well, and is not costing anywhere near what these other guys would. You've got the option of plugging Brian Buchanan into the outfield on a regular basis, or devising some kind of time-sharing arrangement among these three guys.

There's more to this Post article, as it comments on the Padres' interest not only in Mondesi, but also in Rondell White and Juan Acevedo. These guys make a lot more sense, and as the article notes, San Diego will have some money to spend when their insurance on Nevin and Hoffman comes back. Acevedo is making next to nothing with the Yankees and is certainly capable of helping a major league bullpen (2.65 ERA over 74.2 innings in 2002), even as a closer (28 saves last year), if you're into that sort of thing. White's coming off a brutal year, and while he's injury-prone, he's also making less money than either Mondesi or Burnitz (he's in the second year of a two-year, $10 million contract) and is significantly younger, as he'll be 31 next season compared to Mondesi ("32") and Burnitz (34). He's also been consistent throughout his career up until last year, so there's a bit more hope that 2002 was an aberration. In short, he's certainly a better risk than the other two.
posted by VZW Watcher at 6:37 PM -

 
Two days in a row. Dan's in Cooperstown today (or so I hear), so I'm sure he'll be reporting back on that when he returns.

Brian Lawrence extended
I'm doing a little bit of backtracking here, but the Padres signed Brian Lawrence to a 4 year, just over $8 million contract with an option for a fifth year at $5.75 million (team option) within the last few days. For those interested, the breakdown is as follows: $500,000 (signing bonus), $500,000 (2003), $800,000 (2004), $2.25 million (2005), $3.5 million (2006) and either $500,000 (buyout) or the $5.75 million option in 2007. Lawrence certainly doesn't blow anyone away, but it's hard to see how having a moderately-priced young veteran (he's only 26) who's a pretty decent bet to be a consistent innings-eater is a bad thing. It certainly appears to be a better investment than Kevin Jarvis was.

Lawrence would have been eligible for arbitration through 2007, and the Padres presumably save themselves some money here if Lawrence is able to continue to pitch as effectively as he has. His numbers last year, in his first full season: 12-12, 3.69 ERA (104 ERA+), 149 Ks, 52 BB, 230 H, 16 HR over 210 innings. In other words, certainly not worth much more than $2 million per, but certainly a guy who could help most teams as, at the very least, a back of the rotation guy. With the arms coming up through the Padres system (Jake Peavy, Dennis Tankersley and Oliver Perez to name a few), that's hopefully what Lawrence'll be by the time we get to 2005 or so. Pretty sensible move for both sides.
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:28 AM -

 
Phil Nevin out indefinitely
Obviously, this is disappointing for the Padres and their fans, as Phil Nevin is an All-Star caliber player who helps that team a lot when he's playing up to his capabilities (as opposed to last season). As he's no longer a young player at 32, there's some question as to whether or not it's in anyone's best interests to have a guy who the organization has so much invested (4 years, $34 million starting in 2003) in diving for batted balls in Spring Training games, as was the case here, but I guess that's a moot point now - he did and the damage is done.

In truth, the Padres are pretty well prepared for this kind of situation with the embarrassing amount of quality of corner mashers they have on the way up. This article (the one linked to at the top of this entry) indicates that the man to fill in might well be Xavier Nady, which doesn't sound so bad to me. Nady got in 85 games (315 AB) at AAA Portland last year and posted a line of .283/.329/.422 with 10 homers and 43 RBIs after smoking A-ball at Lake Elsinore earlier in the season (to the tune of .278/.382/.580 with 13 homers in just 45 games). Basically, if he's not ready now, he's probably not far off and is plenty capable of handling left field from a defensive standpoint. If this injury gives the 24-year old Nady an opportunity to develop and prosper at the major league level, there's something positive to take away from this. Of course, I'm not advocating the Padres hand him the job...but let him go out this spring knowing he's got a shot and let him win it.

Brian Buchanan's also a reasonable option to give an everyday job in left. Slated to be the Padres' fourth outfielder to open the season, Buchanan put together a nice stretch for San Diego last year after coming over from Minnesota, posting a .293/.363/.543 line (admittedly in just 102 plate appearances). At 29, there's not much to indicate he's ever going to be much more than what he is now, but it seems perfectly reasonable that if you gave him 500 at bats (not that I'm saying this is the best move) he could hit you close to 30 homers and post a line somewhere in the ballpark of .260/.335/.470.

Either way, the Padres should be able to handle Nevin's injury. That's not to say that they'll be able to replace the level of production he gave them in 2000 and 2001, but it's certainly possible his replacement(s) could get pretty close to the unspectacular .285/.344.413 line he posted in 450 plate appearances a year ago. Let's hope he's back as quickly as possible.
posted by VZW Watcher at 7:21 PM -

 
Sorry about the really weak posting schedule lately. One of the problems with not updating at regular intervals is that it allows this kind of thing to happen. Truth be told, we're college students and this is a pretty hectic time (midterms followed by spring break), but there'll be stuff up here very soon. I, for one, hope to get some meaningful content up on Friday evening, Saturday at the latest.

Thanks for bearing with us.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:08 AM -

 
I really don't know what to write about, but I really want to get something posted. If you've got ideas (I'm sure I can and will come up with some more when I've got a bit more time on my hands) let me know, any feedback is greatly appreciated.

In the meantime, Dan's informed you that we recently drafted some fantasy teams, he and I. My results (as I'm sure you're really interested):

C Santiago, Benito
I know. Drafted really late, had to choose between he and Varitek and went this direction.
1B Giambi, Jason
Awesome offensive force, totally capable of winning an MVP this season. And a Yankee.
2B Spivey, Junior
I'm not convinced, but this was also a later pick...at the very least he's probably not going to kill me.
3B Nevin, Phil
Got him way too late, an absolute steal if he's healthy.
SS Boone, Aaron
Eligible at SS, should provide me with very good numbers out of this spot, including steals.
OF Giles, Brian
Terrific outfielder #1.
OF Ramirez, Manny
Terrific outfielder #2.
OF Jones, Chipper
Terrific outfielder #3.
OF Jones, Andruw
Terrific outfielder #4.
Util Thomas, Frank
Minimal risk given where I took him, I really expect a big season.
Bench Lee, Carlos
Hoping for continued improvement, but if he can reproduce his 2002, I'll be very happy.
Bench Hafner, Travis
Got him in the last round (!)...he's going to have every opportunity to succeed, and I think he'll do just that.
Bench Bellhorn, Mark
Dropped because he doesn't really have anywhere solid to play, but he's got to get at bats somehow.
Bench Valentin, Jose
My ace in the hole in every fantasy draft, ludicrously undervalued, I love him.

SP Martinez, Pedro
My #1 pick, easy choice for me over Schilling, if he breaks down, that's cool, so will the Sox.
SP Mussina, Mike
Undervalued (in our league anyway) coming off last season, he's still awesome and pitches for a great team.
RP Rivera, Mariano
Have to hope he's okay, but when he is, he's tremendous. And of course, a Yankee.
RP Foulke, Keith
Terrific pitcher who's got a great opportunity to slam a lot of doors for the Big Three in Oakland.
P Millwood, Kevin
Ace (or co-ace with Randy Wolf) of what should be a very good Phillies staff and team.
P Clement, Matt
Very appealing #2 or #3 starter in Cubs' rotation (with Wood and Prior) coming off breakout season.
P Jiminez, Jose
Really pretty effective despite pitching half his game at Coors.
P DeJean, Mike
Eh, he's a "closer", and saves are unfortunately important in fantasy.
Bench Weaver, Jeff
Will be a starter at some point this season, loads of talent.

I'm very happy with the way it went, we'll see how these guys fare over the course of the season.
posted by VZW Watcher at 5:42 PM -