Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

Grimsley to Baltimore
 
Baltimore Orioles get: Jason Grimsley.
Kansas City Royals get: Denny Bautista.

Grimsley's going to be a welcome addition to the Oriole bullpen. He's an experienced righty reliever who is having a decent season (3.38 ERA in 26.2 innings over 32 appearances and allowing 24 hits (1 homer) and 15 walks while striking out 18). He'll bring some stability to a bullpen that has been inconsistent, crappy and young thus far. He's not making ridiculous money ($1 million for the season, and considerably from this point forward), so that doesn't appear to be much of an issue. Grimsley supposedly signed a one-year extension with Baltimore upon being dealt, though it's unclear how much that's for - though it seems unlikely that it'd be far off this year's salary.

The question then is whether or not a year and a half of Grimsley is worth as promising a young arm as Denny Bautista. Young pitchers, of course, are fraught with an awful lot of risk - there's no guarantee that Bautista is ever going to be a succesful major league pitcher. In spite of his inauspicious debut (allowing 8 earned runs in two innings to start his major league career), Bautista's a highly thought of prospect who won't be 24 until the end of August. He hasn't exactly torn it up at AA Bowie (going 3-5 with a 4.74 ERA over 62.2 innings, allowing 58 hits (5 homers), walking 33 and striking out 72), but he's a young pitcher with promise. While the Orioles are dealing from a position of strength (as they're not without other promising young arms), this is a move that could easily look bad in the near future.

The question then is whether or not having Grimsley is going to make a significant difference for the Orioles. Looking at the AL East, it seems highly unlikely that Baltimore is going to be in position for a division title or wild card berth in either of the next two seasons (which is how long Grimsley's going to be around for). I can see a contending team making a move like this, adding a veteran for a young player or players down the stretch (Bautista was dealt last year from the Marlins to the Orioles last year in such a move - it allowed the eventual champions to reacquire Jeff Conine). I'm not sure I understand it from a team in the Orioles' position.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:44 PM -

Kerry Wood's missing his next start
 
I'm going to refrain from getting too excited about this news, but any time a pitcher with Kerry Wood's injury history is held out due to arm problems, there's reason to be at least a little bit concerned.

The linked article from ESPN.com says the MRI Wood underwent Wednesday showed "inflammation underneath the muscle and mild tendinitis in his elbow." What that means precisely in terms of how long he's likely to be out I have no idea - the current word from the Cubs is that it'll just be one start.

Also from the article: "I don't think it's going to be really much more than one start," Cubs trainer Dave Groeschner said. "We'll just rest him, skip him a start and then get him back throwing and maybe push him back to the end of the rotation."

"But it's too early to tell on that right now. Obviously, he has to be pain-free. He's going to have to calm it down over the next few days. Kerry was kind of relieved to see the (test) results. Everything looked good, structurally. There are no muscle tears or tendon tears."

Wood's been excellent this year, and losing him for any length of time would be a major blow to the Cubs' staff, particularly with Mark Prior still on the shelf. Carlos Zambrano and Matt Clement (particularly before tonight's outing) have been phenomenal thus far, but the team's got to be concerned about the number of injuries it's accumulating.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:00 AM -

Baldwin up and starting, Yates down
 
James Baldwin is scheduled to start tonight for the Mets, having been called up yesterday with the demotion of Tyler Yates. I haven't watched much Met baseball yet this season as I just arrived in New York, but the one start of Yates's I saw (April 9th against the Expos) was pretty good - he gave up just five hits over six innings, allowing no runs or walks and striking out four in his first major league appearance. Of course the Expos have been a brutal offensive team all year, which makes the performance look a lot less impressive in retrospect than it did at the time.

Yates earned his demotion with three crappy outings (4/14 vs. ATL, 4/30 vs. SD, 5/8 vs. MIL) in his first six. Having only started one game in his first five years playing professional ball, Yates started 23 times at three different levels last year but only lasted a total of 107.1 innings (that's including three relief appearances in the Florida State League). I don't have the breakdown of his numbers at A-level St. Lucie, but he averaged five innings or less a start at both AA Binghamton and AAA Norfolk. Expecting him to be able to thrive as a starter (able to pitch effectively deep into ballgames) was kind of unrealistic, and really didn't make much sense given that Jae Seo, who was a reliable, adequate starter in 2003, didn't even make the team out of spring training.

Of course, the Mets knew their pitching staff wasn't deep, as even their intended top three (Al Leiter, Tom Glavine and Steve Trachsel) were question marks either due to age and/or recent performance (Trachsel was probably the surest bet). So they went out and signed several guys off the scrap heap like Scott Erickson, one-time Yankee Randy Keisler and James Baldwin. Erickson, as you probably know, made the rotation out of spring training but got hurt (again) just before his first start on April 8th vs. the Braves. Keisler's pitching at Norfolk, where he was a teammate of Baldwin's until yesterday. Baldwin's been decent at AAA (a 3-2 record with a 2.90 ERA over five starts and 31 innings), but nowhere near as good as Matt Ginter's been (a 1.30 ERA over five starts and 27.2 innings, including a sparkling 24/3 strikeout-to-walk ratio).

Baldwin's apparently got an out in his contract that he can exercise at the end of May, so maybe it behooves the Mets to take a look at what they've got. But this is a guy who has started 200 games and pitched over 1200 innings at the major league level - there's not a whole lot of question about what kind of a pitcher Baldwin is. He's a 32-year old, back-of-the-rotation guy who allows way too many baserunners and doesn't appear to be showing any improvement as he ages. So why waste time with him at all? If he wants to leave at the end of the month, wish him well. I don't mean to suggest that someone like Matt Ginter is the answer (Aaron Heilman, who pitched very well this spring might be a better one), but the chances of Baldwin being a contributor to this Mets team are pretty slim.
posted by VZW Watcher at 3:22 PM -

In Queens and writing again
 
As I'm in Queens for the summer, I'm going to try to come through with daily postings so I feel like I'm doing something mildly productive. It's been awhile since either of us has written anything to this blog (Dan's The Target Demographic has been graced with some content), and we've obviously missed a lot. We're now nearly a month and a half into the 2004 season, and it seems silly to attempt to cover what we've missed - so I'm going to pick it up from here.
posted by VZW Watcher at 3:16 PM -

An evening with the Fisher Cats
 
I attended my first minor league baseball game in Monday night in Manchester, New Hampshire, and was thoroughly impressed. The New Hampshire Fisher Cats are playing their first season in their new home, having moved from New Haven (where they were the Ravens). The facility they're currently playing in is called Gill Stadium, which is about as large (in terms of seats for spectators) as some of the Little League parks I played in as a youth - I'm not sure quite what the capacity is, but I'd be surprised if it's over 5,000. My girlfriend's father informed me that the city of Manchester is in the process of building the Fisher Cats a new stadium, which will comply with with Eastern League regulations (all the league's teams need to accomodate a prescribed number of spectators - allowing the team to play at Gill Stadium this year is an exception). If you're interested in Manchester's project (the new facility will be called Riverfront Stadium), take a look here.

As it stands, watching a professional game in such an informal environment was an odd experience. While I had never seen a minor league game before, I've been to other facilities (like Richmond County Bank Ballpark at St. George on Staten Island, P & C Stadium in Syracuse and Legends Field in Tampa), and this was completely different. Gill Stadium feels more like a bandshell - with the seats providing the shell - than any professional ballpark I'd been in. There are no tiers of seating, just fifteen or twenty rows up from the field, with bleacher areas down the foul lines. The view, sitting in the front row as I was, was phenomenal.

The game itself was enjoyable, and particularly interesting for me because several players I'd heard of were playing, guys like John-Ford Griffin, Aaron Hill, Dominic Rich (who had a huge day), Carlos Valderrama (I explained to an usher that he's not the Colombian soccer player), Justin Knoedler and Tyrell Godwin all played. I unfortunately missed seeing Dustin McGowan by a day, but it's very possible I'll have a chance to get back up there for a start of his, as the trip up from Cambridge was fairly quick.
posted by VZW Watcher at 6:30 PM -

Notes on Melvin Mora and a stupid commercial
 
A few notes on the first couple days of real baseball:

- Melvin Mora looks terrible. I've watched most of the first two Orioles-Red Sox games (the whole game Sunday night, and what I've been able to today), and while it's impossible to make any kind of concrete judgment off of two games, he's made three errors and looked completely lost at the plate, striking out four times in nine plate appearances (a lot of these were against Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling, but even so).

- There is a ridiculous Ford commercial (for the F-150) airing here featuring newly-minted Boston television star Curt Schilling (he's in a Dunkin' Donuts ad here too - also terrible). For those of you who haven't seen it - I'm sure it's not on the air in other markets - I'll give you a taste. Schilling is standing in the desert (presumably a ways from civilization, we can't see anything but desert), conveniently next to a sign that says something like "You are leaving Arizona". He's either traveled on foot to this point (though there's no noticeable wear in his clothes or appearance) or been dropped off by someone who was either unwilling or unable to leave the state. He's apparently on his way to Boston (we don't find this out immediately, but he does have a single duffel bag with him that says "Boston Red Sox" on it), and is attempting to solicit a ride from a passing driver. This is illegal in Arizona, but never mind that.

By the grace of God, two cars drive by almost immediately that are willing to offer him a ride. The people in Arizona (or those who leave Arizona) seem like humanitarians. He takes a look at each of them (a Dodge and a Chevy), and declines. He's apparently waiting for something specific - of course, it's the Ford F-150. He can't bring himself to be a passenger in anything else, even though he's stranded in the desert, thousands of miles from his eventual destination. Thanks to an incredible stroke of good fortune, a Ford F-150 actually does pass by! The driver kindly offers Schilling a lift, and he accepts (climbing aboard without so much as a "thank you"). The driver asks Schilling where he's headed, and we finally have our suspicions confirmed - he's heading for Boston. Just up the road - sure enough - there's a sign indicating the exact number of miles (2697) to Fenway Park. I know I was wondering how Schilling physically got from Arizona to Boston (a man who's made more than $50 million in career certainly wouldn't be flying or have his own car)...now we know at least part of the story. I trust Ford won't leave us hanging, and we'll see many more true-to-life, captivating chapters of Schilling's cross country journey.
posted by VZW Watcher at 6:36 PM -

Predictions (part III: Matt)
 
In keeping with the format (and aware that we're getting later every day the season progresses), the Barnard pick for NL Cy Young is Jake Peavy. While certainly not as wild a pick as Jeff Weaver, I haven't seen Peavy listed as a probable Cy Young candidate anywhere yet. I'm of the belief that the Padres are going to be pretty good this year (and win the weak NL West), and while they've got considerably more offense to start the year than they've had in the recent past, at least some of the improvement is going to have to be picked up by the pitching staff. The addition of David Wells at the top of the rotation is nice, but the Padres' most talented pitcher is certainly Peavy. He's got terrific stuff and is really a joy to watch - if tonight's duel with Odalis Perez in Los Angeles is available on television wherever you are, eat it up.
posted by VZW Watcher at 5:49 PM -

Bradley to Los Angeles
 
Los Angeles Dodgers get: Milton Bradley.
Cleveland Indians get: Franklin Gutierrez and a player to be named.

Probably a good move for both teams. I like the potential of Gutierrez an awful lot; everything I've seen calls for him to be a hell of a player. Spring training stats mean very little (more for young players than veterans), but Gutierrez didn't overwhelm anyone offensively this March in 16 games and isn't likely to make a major league impact for at least another year. He'll open up at AA, and I guess from the Dodgers' perspective, that was far off enough to make him expendable in the right trade. In the weak NL West, it might make sense for the Dodgers to do what they can to maximize their chances right now, as it's certainly not out of the realm of possibilities that they could steal the division this year. The offense was already improved before the acquisition of Bradley, who will probably play center and hit somewhere in the top half of the order. If it were me, I think I'd lead him off (his .421 OBP last year would be welcome from the top spot), but he'll be an asset anywhere they want to put him.

So while the Dodgers are giving up a real good looking prospect, they're getting back a solid major league contributor. Bradley has obviously had some clubhouse and legal problems (his spat with manager Eric Wedge forced this trade), but I guess Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta and manager Jim Tracy feel they can handle those in light of Bradley's on-field abilities. The Indians had to make a move (I don't know precisely how or why they came to that decision, but they'd decided that Bradley wasn't coming back), and looked at from that perspective, they did a nice job here bringing in a grade A prospect. My concern is that the team already pretty deep in young outfielders, and while Gutierrez probably jumps to the head of that group, he may not see the light of day at the major league level quite as soon as he would in Los Angeles. Not that this is a real problem, other than for those of us that want to see him play. The Indians have a pretty deep minor league system, and Gutierrez only adds to those riches. We'll have to see who the player to be named ends up being, but it looks like this could be a positive move for both parties.
posted by VZW Watcher at 8:28 PM -

Predictions (Parts I & II: Matt)
 
Dan's been better about writing lately, and since we want to run our season predictions in some reasonable order, I think I'll piggyback him through the process. It's awfully difficult to make a good appraisal of what rookies will spend a lot of time in the major leagues before a season, let alone who will perform well enough to be considered for Rookie of the Year. You don't need me to throw out names for you, but few of us could have imagined the impacts that the likes of Scott Podsednik, Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Webb and the 2003 NL Rookie of the Year, Dontrelle Willis would make last season. In making my judgments, I'm going to limit myself to guys who look like they'll open the season on the major league roster, for the sake of sanity and copping out (so I'm not considering Zack Greinke, Jeremy Reed or David DeJesus, for example, though it seems likely that we'll see them at some point).

In the American League, I'm going with Bobby Crosby of the A's. He's got a starting job from Opening Day, he can hit and plays a valuable defensive position. As impressive as many think Joe Mauer is going to be in the future (and I apologize for being stating the obvious here, I know you've heard it before), he hasn't shown any power to date. If he sticks in the majors all season, that'll be impressive...I don't expect him to hit enough to compete with Crosby for AL Rookie of the Year.

The field of rookies (at this point) should be deeper in the National League. As Dan mentions, the odds-on candidate is Kazuo Matsui. However, given that Hideki Matsui didn't win the AL Rookie of the Year last year because of the prejudices of a couple writers who excluded him from their ballots - not that he deserved to win, but he was certainly among the top three in the AL last year - I'm going to assume that some writers will do the same with the other Matsui, blatantly defying the rules so they can not vote for a Japanese player who happens to play in New York. (This assumes that the younger Matsui's play will make him deserving of the award...I think he'll probably have a nice season.) While it looks like Khalil Greene and Adam LaRoche will be regulars on Opening Day, my pick for NL Rookie of the Year is Ryan Wagner. I don't believe that Danny Graves is going to be effective enough as the Reds' closer to save his job - if that's the case, Wagner is probably next in line. He should be a real nice pitcher, and given the voter's love of counting stats like saves, he should be a prime candidate.
posted by VZW Watcher at 4:53 PM -