Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

 
The Kennedy-Speier-Hendrickson three-way

Colorado Rockies get: Joe Kennedy.
Toronto Blue Jays get: Justin Speier.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays get: Mark Hendrickson.

This is an interesting skills-based deal, the kind we generally don't see anymore. None of these guys are making all that much money, so an evaluation of the trade comes down to who is most likely to fit best on their new teams.

Hendrickson, as many of you I'm sure are aware, was a professional basketball player who couldn't really play (at a level that would allow him to have a lengthy career anyway) and is huge (6'9"). As intimidating a presence as he surely must be on the mound releasing the ball from as high as he does, he's 29 and really hasn't been effective as a major league pitcher. While he posted a 2.46 ERA over 36.2 innings (16 games, 4 starts) in 2002, he regressed to a 5.51 ERA over 158.1 innings (30 games, all starts) last season. He's also got a much lower strikeout rate than you'd (or I'd) expect from a guy that tall...he had just 76 last season. The Jays' pitching was pretty weak last season, which allowed Hendrickson to accumulate 30 starts despite their poor quality. Due to the major upgrade they've made heading into 2004 (with the acquisitions of Ted Lilly, Miguel Batista and Pat Hentgen), there really isn't much room for a guy who was this ineffective at this age in an extended trial.

Okay, so why would Tampa Bay trade a promising young (24-year old) starter in Joe Kennedy, even one who had a horrific 2003, for Hendrickson? I'm really not sure. The Rays have a bunch of guys who could be patched together to form a rotation in Jeremi Gonzalez, John Halama, Victor Zambrano, Paul Abbott, Doug Waechter, Chad Gaudin, Jorge Sosa, Dewon Brazelton and now Hendrickson. There are a few young guys in there (Waechter, Gaudin and Brazelton) and Kennedy was another. If you're in Tampa's situation - with three teams likely to be very competitive in your own division - isn't there something to be said for letting the young guys go and seeing what you have? I realize that this (packing the team with young, cheap players) can't go on forever...eventually you've got to show the fans an obvious effort to put a winning team on the field and spend some money...but I'm willing to bet that Tampa could get their fan base more excited about a team centered on guys like Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford and Gaudin than it can about a team relying on ancients like the 36-year old Paul Abbott. So I really don't know why Tampa would do this. GM Chuck LaMar has apparently been enamored with Hendrickson for a long time, having drafted him when he was the Braves' scouting director eleven years ago. He's also convinced that, being in the AL East, the Devil Rays need a lefty. (I guess Halama, who he signed less than a month ago and who has a better track record as a major league pitcher, doesn't count for some reason.) In any case, I would think that LaMar would be more concerned with getting guys who can pitch effectively, regardless of what arm they throw with, at this stage of his team's development.

Kennedy is of particular interest to Dan and I, as he's on our Diamond-Mind team. We were rooting for him to do well in Tampa, and while his prospects have dimmed considerably in the past season (due to his awful season last year and now his move to Colorado), he's still just 24 and has already pitched 448 major league innings with some success. I'm certainly not a pitching coach or a doctor, so I don't know exactly what went wrong...but Kennedy was absolutely terrible in 2003, posting a 3-12 record and 6.13 ERA. His numbers got worse pretty much all the way across the board, and he ultimately lost his spot in the rotation, quite a feat on a team as bad as the Devil Rays were last year (63-99, 32 games out of a playoff spot). The Rockies give up Justin Speier in this trade, a pitcher who has been good for them in his roughly two and a half seasons. But the problem in Colorado has never been the pitching out of the bullpen...it's been the rotation. There's been a plethora of ideas proferred about how to best build a staff in Colorado, and while I don't have much to add to the discussion, it seems to me that your best chance for success is to have as many options available as possible. Kennedy is now a candidate (one with a leg up, I would think) along with Scott Elarton, Chin-Hui Tsao, Denny Stark, Aaron Cook and Cory Vance to round out a rotation topped by Shawn Chacon and Jason Jennings. For a team like the Rockies with multiple holes, getting a young starter with potential for an established, solid reliever seems like a reasonable proposition. There's no getting around the horrendous season that Kennedy's coming off of, but the prospect of him being able to resurrect his once-promising career in Denver is mighty intriguing.

Finally, the acquisition of Speier makes sense for the Blue Jays. Having just dramatically improved their rotation (as I mentioned a few blocks of writing ago), Hendrickson was likely to be pitching out the bullpen, if he made the roster at all. At this point in their careers, based on all the evidence we have available to us, Speier's simply a better pitcher. He put up perfectly adequate numbers for a steady, reliable reliever during his time in Colorado, and was, like most pitchers, better away from Coors Field. He'll be away all the time now. And while the Toronto rotation has really improved, the bullpen could stand to add some help to a core that currently consists of Kerry Ligtenberg, Aquilino Lopez and now, Speier. I think the bottom line from Toronto's perspective is that they're getting a superior, more established pitcher as compared to Hendrickson. With the need for Hendrickson's ability to start disappearing, the opportunity to upgrade the bullpen was one they had to take advantage of.

Ultimately, there's good to be taken away from this deal both in Colorado and Toronto...shockingly, it's hard to see exactly how Tampa Bay is improving itself.
posted by VZW Watcher at 9:02 PM -

 
Pettitte to the Astros

As tough as it is to see Andy Pettitte go, I'm not blaming anyone for this. Pettitte's leaving New York for some very understandable reasons, and while I don't know how anyone can live in/around New York for as long as he has and not love it...he's more comfortable in the South, where he's from. I can respect that. He gave us some great years in New York, and I'm certainly grateful.

As for the Yankees' supposed bungling of negotiations, I have a hard time believing it was a huge factor in this decision. Ultimately, everyone's willing to acknowledge that the Yanks offered more money than the Astros and it simply wasn't enough. Sure, if the Yanks had come with something like $15 million+ a season over five years Andy might've accepted, but the offer they made was perfectly reasonable. All things being equal, I expect Pettitte would've taken it. Of course, all things weren't equal, and he's an Astro. There was clearly far more to this decision than money from Pettitte's perspective, and I can't blame Steinbrenner for losing out here.

What's made me happiest about this story are the reports that Pettitte immediately dismissed playing for the Red Sox because he couldn't betray the Yankee fans who supported him during his nine years in New York. Finally! I realize that the Yankees and Red Sox are two of the richest teams out there and can thus offer very lucrative contracts, but I'm always baffled and disgusted when guys like Ramiro Mendoza, who have had really nice careers with one of the teams (the Yankees, obviously, in this case) go and sign with the other. Don't they realize that such a thing is tantamount to stabbing the entire fan base in the back? Mendoza was fine when he was in New York, we appreciated his efforts...but you think Yankee fans want to have him back for anything (Old Timer's Day, whatever else down the line) now? He's a traitor. He may not see it that way, but you can't convince me that he didn't have other options for similar money. The only place you can't go as a Yankee-on-your-way-out-via-free-agency is Boston. He did, and he's paying the price (and not playing in Boston, but that's another story). Pettitte is leaving the Yankees for reasons we can all understand, and made certain that he didn't damage his legacy in New York as he did so. I really appreciate that.
posted by VZW Watcher at 11:29 AM -

 
Vazquez for Johnson and Rivera

New York Yankees get: Javier Vazquez.
Montreal Expos get: Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, Randy Choate.

Like many Yankee fans, I'm sorry to see Nick Johnson go. Dan and I haven't discussed the matter yet, but I have a feeling we're of the same mind on this one: it sucks to give up a player as young and talented as Johnson, but if you're going to do it, Vazquez is the kind of guy you'd like to get back. While money is a factor in this trade, it really doesn't make a whole lot of sense to get into that from the Yankees' perspective. Sure, it's great for the Expos that they'll be able to keep their costs down and improve the team in certain areas - Rivera's not arbitration-eligible yet, while Johnson is for the first time this year - but money clearly has very little bearing on what the Yankees do. Vazquez made $6 million last season and is in line for a raise, as he's coming off an excellent year. Whether it's $8 million or $10 million in 2004, the Yankees have acquired an excellent 27-year old starting pitcher who is likely to remain in pinstripes, at whatever cost, for quite awhile.

While this deal substantially improves the Yankee rotation as it stood before the trade, I'm far from certain that this is a better staff than the one the team featured in 2003. Mike Mussina is a very legitimate ace and will return and anchor the staff, but Roger Clemens is gone and David Wells likely is too. Bringing back Andy Pettitte would certainly help, and a Mussina-Vazquez-Pettitte rotation with some combination of Jeff Weaver, Jose Contreras and Jon Lieber bringing up the back end would be the envy of most teams. The resigning of Pettitte, however, is crucial, something the Yanks apparently realize and are focusing their efforts on, particularly now that they've done some initial reshuffling.

From the Montreal perspective, there's no reason to believe that Nick Johnson won't be able to continue his excellent production barring injury, which is a risk with his history. At 25, he's got plenty of time to improve, will play everyday in Montreal and be an integral part of a nice nucleus in (at least) Jose Vidro, Brad Wilkerson, Orlando Cabrera and Johnson.

Losing Juan Rivera really doesn't phase me. He's been talked up as a Yankee prospect for some time, and while he went through stretches last season where he was effective, it's hard for me to believe that the time will come in the near future where the Yankees won't have a better option to trot out to rightfield. Right now, with the signing of Gary Sheffield imminent, his value to the team is as little more than a fourth or fifth outfielder. He's also not that young (25 right now), so if he's ever going to be a legitimate starting major league outfielder, this is exactly the kind of opportunity he needs to prove himself. I'd imagine he'll get some serious playing time in Montreal, as there's really not much competition for the right field job should Vladimir Guerrero be allowed to walk (and this certainly points in that direction). He's a cheap, sensible option for the Expos, and a guy it makes a lot of sense to acquire.

Randy Choate may get some run in Montreal, but realistically, there was very little chance he'd ever have a meaningful role in the Bronx. It's kind of a shame on some level, even as a Yankee fan, to realize that the days of organizational filler coming in and holding down important spots are largely over omfor the time being, but that's the way it is and I can think of worse situations to be in as a fan. The Yankee bullpen is going to be substantially better in 2004 than it was last year, with guys like Felix Heredia, Tom Gordon, Paul Quantrill and hopefully our boy from Queens Steve Karsay and Gabe White around for the full season to keep games close and set up for the Hammer of God, guys like Choate aren't particularly necessary.

I'm really torn about this. It's going to be great to see a pitcher of Javier Vazquez's caliber in pinstripes next year, and I think this is an excellent counterstrike to the Red Sox' acquisition of Curt Schilling. While Schilling might be the better pitcher over the next year or two or three (and I'm far from conceding that point), Vazquez could well excel for the Yankees for the next decade. The package the Yankees had to give up here is more substantial than that surrended by the Red Sox for Schilling, but the deal certainly has it merits. Losing Johnson hurts in that it leaves a hole in the lineup where a highly productive bat was last season. Jason Giambi will likely have to take on more of the first base duties, and while he'll probably be fine, he's not a sure thing at the moment due to injury concerns. It seems possible to me that the Yankees will now go out, once the market settles down a little, and sign another first baseman - perhaps Rafael Palmeiro or someone like that - to take some of the load of Giambi defensively and contribute to the lineup.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:33 AM -