Writings on baseball by Matt Barnard and Dan Stein.

 
Biggio's extension
I've already commented on what I think the Astros should have done with Craig Biggio, so you should be able to guess I'm not going to like this move much. The extension breaks down like this (according to espn.com): $3 million guaranteed in 2004, a $3 million team option for 2005 with a $1 million buyout, plus performance incentives that could be worth up to $1.5 million each year of the deal. The incentives aren't insignificant, as they're playing time related - he'll receive $250,000 for at each of 450, 500, 550, 600, 650 and 700 plate appearances. If he stinks, he's certainly not going to reach 700 plate appearances...but I'd be surprised (assuming he's healthy) if he didn't get to the first few of those and earn himself another million bucks. After all, he pretty much stunk last season, but that didn't stop the Astros from sending him to the dish 655 times.

This certainly could've been worse. Biggio could probably have really stuck the Astros, who clearly didn't want to take the PR hit they would have had they refused his wish for an extension, by asking for something more along the lines of what he's currently making. But it's important to remember that he's already making $8 million for 2003. This guarantees that the team's going to be paying (at the bare minimum) $12 million for Biggio's services over the next two seasons. Can he still play at a level that would make him worth $6 million a year? Doesn't look like it, based on his 2002 performance. Can he handle center field defensively? We have no idea. This is simply the kind of risk that a team like the Astros...a team with a lot of talent but a limited budget...shouldn't be taking. Drayton McLane's resources would be far better served by going out next offseason and signing an established centerfielder for this $4 million, which would have bought you quite a lot in this year's free agent market.

"This was a tough situation for everyone," Astros general manager Gerry Hunsicker said. "The main factor for Craig was that he was being asked to move to a new position in the last year of his contract. We had empathy for that and we wanted to show what he has meant to the Astros over the years." (ripped from the espn.com article linked at the top of this entry)

It's one thing to honor guys who have done great work for your team and city, and Biggio has certainly done that. Nobody'll ever wear number 7 in Houston again, and that's just as it should be. But when your sensibilities are overridden by emotional attachment, that's a problem. We'll have to see just how badly this works out for the Astros.
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:31 PM -

 
It's really a pleasure to see that people are linking to us without us begging for them to do so. Yesterday we had a couple of hits linked to us from brand new sources, which is quite a thrill. Naturally, while we're doing this primarily to get our thoughts out, it's all the more rewarding when people actually take notice and find some value in what we're doing. So, for those of you who have chosen to link us, thank you...if you'd like to be linked here, I'd be happy to do it...and if you find some value in this site, please link us at yours.

There was no entry yesterday, and it really wasn't out of laziness...there just wasn't much news. What is there to write about? The seats atop the Green Monster? Billy Koch's new contract? Ricky Bottalico or Damon Buford getting signed? January 30th was a slow day indeed. Hopefully something more exciting will occur today for us to comment on, and if not...well, I guess I'll come back this evening and dig something up anyway.

Have a good one and we'll check you later.
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:48 AM -

 
Andres the Giant (sorry)
I really thought it was over, and it may yet be. Galarraga looked just about finished in Montreal last season and the Giants have other options at first base (though none of them are too good), so it's hard to see how he'll have much of an impact, though he could conceivably make the team. So while this is probably not a real impactful move in terms of 2003 (the Giants are going to get poor production from first base whether it's JT Snow, Damon Minor, Joe Vitiello or Andres Galarraga), it does give us cause to reflect on Andres' career one last time before he hangs it up, which I'm assuming he'll do soon...though he's certainly fooled me before, and is doing so again right now with his continued desire to suit up.

In a career that began in Montreal in 1985, Galarraga never really came into his own as dominant offensive force until he went to Colorado in 1993. I believe (I could be wrong about this) he was the first player in Rockies' history, as he signed with the team prior to the expansion draft. At the time...when I guess I was nine or ten years old...I was really excited about the Rockies entrance into the league and subscribed to their newsletter. I can't remember the name of the publication, which is bothering me...if you know it for some reason, let me know. Anyhow, I received periodic updates about the budding Rockies roster after the expansion draft, which of course included guys like new Indians manage Eric Wedge and the immortal David Nied. Galarraga was by far the biggest name at the time and got me excited about the new franchise's chances.

Anyway, Andres tore through his seasons in Colorado, revealed the wonders of Coors to the world and left as the best player in team history in 1997. While I wasn't involved at all in the sabermetric community at the time (or even aware of it), it was generally thought he'd come back down to earth in Atlanta and go back to being the good if unspectacular player he had been throughout his pre-Coors career. Of course, it didn't happen, and Galarraga went on to have two excellent seasons in Atlanta, with a one year hiatus in the middle recovering from cancer. Outside of his 49 game stretch for the Giants in late 2001, he hasn't been anything special since leaving Atlanta and his 30s behind. During his return engagement in Montreal last season, his play indicated that for the good of everyone involved, he should probably call it a career.

Somehow despite his excellent power numbers, particularly in his mid to late 30s, Galarraga never showed much plate discipline in his career, topping out with 63 walks in 1998 in what was probably his best overall season. We can only imagine if Andres had come to learn how to keep the bat on his shoulder a little (or a lot) earlier in his career. Either way, Galarraga was quite a dominant player in his day. He struck out a hell of a lot (topping 120 Ks in every season in which he played over 107 games), but that hulking body striding up to the plate was more than enough to scare the crap out of me. If he never takes the field again in a major league uniform, he'll finish with at .288/.347/.499 (that's an OPS of .846, for the very lazy) with nearly 400 home runs, 2500 hits, 1200 runs scored and 1400 RBIs (almost 2000 strikeouts too, for good measure). Of course, a whole bunch of those numbers are Coors-flated...but that's one hell of a run.

Whenever I think of Andres, I recall the really early days of my following of baseball in the late 80s. Growing up in New York, I'd often watch Met games and they'd often be playing the Expos. I always viewed Galarraga as being the nastiest, best opposing hitter the Mets faced...he seemed to do them in every time I watched. I hated him with a passion (even being a Yankee fan, I always liked to see the Mets win), but always respected his ability to change a game with one swing of the bat.

Not everyone can be a Hall-of-Famer, so some guys have to settle for just being five-time All-Stars, winning two Gold Gloves, a batting title and finishing in the top 10 in MVP voting six times. If this is it for Galarraga, it's been an enjoyable run and a terrific career.
posted by VZW Watcher at 8:58 PM -

 
There'll be more here later in the day, including some comments on the career of old Yankee Randy Velarde, who has now retired. We'd like to call attention to the newest article over at baseballprimer.com by our good friend and linker Aaron Gleeman on the top 50 prospects in baseball (according to him). As with all prospect lists, it's very open for debate...but it's certainly an interesting and well researched jumping-off point. Enjoy, and we'll check you later.
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:52 AM -

 
Daryle Ward to the Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers get: Daryle Ward
Houston Astros get: Ruddy Lugo

Not very meaningful on either side at present. As reported over on Mike's Baseball Rants, the article this is linked to has it wrong when it says that this move clears the way for Craig Biggio to take over in center...as Ward played left field (not particularly well). I guess the thought is that now Lance Berkman will move to left and you'll have Richard Hidalgo in right and Jason Lane and Orlando Merced the backups with Ward out of the picture. What remains to be seen is if this improves the pretty crappy outfield defense that the Astros trotted out there last year, as we have no idea how Biggio will be able to handle center. Ruddy Lugo isn't going to effect Houston in the coming season, so the only immediate impact is that of subtracting Ward. Why they'd feel it necessary to move a guy who's making as little money as he is is a little confusing, but I guess the organization's frustration with his failure to perform as expected has something to do with his departure.

Ward probably wasn't going to receive significant playing time in Houston, as he really didn't do a whole lot to deserve it and they've got better players at the positions he can handle defensively (corner outfield, first base). At best, he would've likely been the team's fourth outfielder and backup first baseman. We've been beaten over the head for the last few seasons with projections about his prodigous power, but it really hasn't manifested itself on the field thus far. Through 1172 plate appearances over five seasons, Ward has hit just 49 home runs (that's one about every 24 PAs). Certainly not horrible, but he doesn't bring much else to the table. Over the same span of time (that is, his entire career to date), Ward has walked just 77 times (only 66 times unintentionally) and posted a measly .316 OBP. He wasn't quite an on-base machine coming up through the minors, but he was typically in the .370-.380 range, which is a far cry from where he's been with the Astros.

Could a change of scenery help him? Sure. I suppose the Dodgers want to use Ward as a backup at first to Fred McGriff and insurance in case either Brian Jordan or Shawn Green break down at the outfield corners...but I don't see how that's going to add up to a whole lot of at bats. If this is all it took to get Daryle Ward, why is it the Dodgers who've come away with him? I don't mean to say that Ruddy Lugo's completely useless, but the verdict is still a long way from coming in on a 22 year pitcher who struggled at AA...there are a lot of guys comparable in value.

Maybe this is a ridiculous exercise, but aren't there teams where Ward would fit much, much better? How about the Expos, who are set right now to trot out Jeff Liefer on Opening Day at first base? While it wouldn't be a perfect platoon by any means (they're both lefties and have faced righties almost exclusively in their careers), it'd be a better situation than the one they're currently in, as Liefer is going to stink. I doubt money would be a problem, as last year he made just $375,000 and his 2003 salary is likely to be in the same range. For Ward to blossom into the player he was projected to be, he probably needs to get some playing time from a team that's not terribly concerned with winning right now and can take a flier on a low-risk, high-reward guy like this. He wasn't going to get that chance in Houston, and I don't see it happening for him in Los Angeles either.

I'm not sure that this trade makes much sense from either side, but at least the Astros are getting a guy they can hopefully use in a year or two. Daryle Ward is going to be stuck again.
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:00 PM -

 
The links are back. If we're missing anything or there's something worthy of being linked from here that we haven't included, please let me know and I'll take care of it. We'll hopefully get to something contentful this evening (on Daryle Ward, perhaps).
posted by VZW Watcher at 4:18 PM -

 
Okay, the site is pretty much fixed (aside from the links, which I'll get back up there today). Thanks for bearing with us...I have no idea what I did to mess it up. I was trying to add a link on the sidebar to Elephants in Oakland, which is an entertaining site I thought warranted a mention...and it totally messes everything up. Whatever, it's fixed now and hopefully I'll learn what I'm doing so it doesn't happen again.

Enjoy the Super Bowl.
posted by VZW Watcher at 12:50 PM -

 
Damn. I ruined the site. Hopefully this'll be fixed once someone who knows how to use computers can take a look at the source code and see what I messed up. Until then, it's really ugly...sorry.
posted by VZW Watcher at 11:51 AM -

 
The future of Craig Biggio
It's a sad day when a player who has been with a team for a long time finally has to move on. When Jerry Rice left San Francisco, it must have sucked for the 49er faithful who loved him so much. When Pat-rick Ewing was dealt to Seattle, the city of New York felt the loss. That said, sometimes a painful separation is what's best for both parties. Craig Biggio is as big a part of Astros history as any player ever has been, and nobody's ever going to take away the love the city of Houston has for him. He's been a gutty warrior (not to mention an extremely productive player) for his entire career and his style has endeared him to people well beyond Texas. He and I even share the same birthday (December 14th). But it doesn't matter. As nice as it would be to see Craig Biggio finish his career where it started, it doesn't make sense for the Astros to make that a reality if their goal is to compete for a championship. The signing of Jeff Kent was a great move, one that improved the lineup considerably...and displaced the once-great Craig Biggio, moving him to left field. The unfortunate truth is this: Biggio is simply not an asset as a corner outfielder. (EDIT: Biggio is slated to start in centerfield, not left field as I had thought and heard originally. This changes things a bit, as his level of production is more acceptable in center...but my points here essentially hold.)

Even if we assume he can rebound a bit from his poor 2002 season (.253/.330/.404, 89 OPS+) and get back to something more along the lines of a .275/.350/.410 level, he's making $9 million for that production and is a waste of resources at that price. He simply does not hit well enough anymore to be an asset at any position the Astros have for him to play. Could he hold his own in 2003? Possibly. I doubt he'll be a tremendous strain on a lineup that contains some of the best hitters in baseball in Lance Berkman, Jeff Kent and Jeff Bagwell. But would it be wise for the Astros to give him an extension, even if only for two years, at the kind of money he'll be demanding? I don't think so.

While I know it'd be incredibly unpopular, I think it'd make some sense for the Astros to think about trading Biggio right now and getting some value for him before he slips any further. Send him somewhere where he can play second base and be an asset to a lineup. He makes a lot of money, so you're probably looking at a situation where the Astros would have to eat some of his contract or take a high salaried guy back. I'm just beginning to think of this now, so I'm not totally sure where he'd be a great fit, but I'll think about it. (Dan mentioned Minnesota, but I don't think they'd be interested in adding such a salary, though he would definitely help them.) Any ideas?
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:42 PM -

 
What?!
Didn't see that coming. Naturally, the first thing that came to mind when the news that former MVP Ivan Rodriguez had signed a one year, $10 million deal with the Florida Marlins was that something else was afoot, that he'd be moved elsewhere shortly, despite the fact that you don't have sign-and-trades in baseball as you do in basketball, for instance. But...the details of the contract seem to prohibit that from happening, even at the trading deadline, unless Pudge waives the no-trade clause that's built into the contract.

The expectation was that Rodriguez would, along with Jose Cruz, sign below market one year contracts to play in Baltimore, the only team publicly jockeying for their services. But much like in the case of the Colon-to-Chicago a week ago, another team seemingly jumped into the fray at the end and stole the prize. I guess this makes some sense for Pudge, as he'll have an opportunity to play everyday (well, as often as his body will allow) and then will get to go through the free agency process again next year when the market might be a bit better for him. That said, he's both moving to the NL where he won't have the opportunity to DH regularly and from the Ballpark in Arlington to Pro Player Stadium, which is a more difficult park to hit in. I'm guessing the ton of money and (total speculation) the opportunity to play in Miami swayed him in this direction. Sensible enough.

The question is: what are the Marlins doing?
- they have two very adequate major league catchers already (Ramon Castro, Mike Redmond)
- they are still not a good bet to be competitive for the postseason
- they refused to pay a guy they needed (Kevin Millar) as recently as two weeks ago
- they are paying far more than anyone else was offering ($6 million was the Baltimore figure, I think)
- they can't even turn him into prospects at the deadline without his consent
- they've got a first baseman (Derrek Lee) in place and no DH at their disposal, so he'll have to catch

This absolutely improves the Marlin lineup. But even if you were getting the best season of his career (when Pudge was worth almost 9 wins above replacement, according to bp.com), does this make any sense from the team's standpoint? Yes, Pudge is a much better hitter than either Castro or Redmond or a combination of the two. But does it really matter in terms of the Marlins' success over the long term (which Pudge will almost certainly not be a part of) whether they win 75 games or 84 games? Of course you like to see every team try to win as many games as possible, and if Jeff Loria can afford to pay for it, the Marlins will win more games this year and that's great. I'm just not sure what's ultimately going to come of this other than a few wins this season which are ultimately pretty insignificant. Maybe the thinking is that it'll boost attendance in Miami, which it may well. This is just a really confusing move, especially in light of the Marlins just letting Kevin Millar go to Japan over several million dollars less than this.

Baffling.

A little more Chuck
Following up on our Chuck Finley content yesterday, there are now reports that Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd is "monitoring" the 40-year old's "situation". For the reasons we outlined, I don't see how Colorado is a fit from Finley's standpoint...but it makes great sense for the Rockies to try to bring in a guy like that on the cheap, so I don't blame them (or any other organization who would) for trying. Also mentioned in the linked article is that the team is considering signing ex-Phillies starter Robert Person, presumably also for very little money. Theories about how best to approach the unique baseball environment in Denver have been plentiful, and the accumulation of any available talent for cheap appears to be this week's choice for Mr. O'Dowd. The Rockies have spent the winter bulking up their lineup with power hitters at very little cost, and now are apparently trying to do the same to the pitching staff. In this very weak market, it may well be wise for the Rockies to simply throw whatever arms are available at their pitching staff problems and hope they'll provide a solution, even if only a short-term one. However, for success over the long haul, we're going to need to see some consistency and a plan from an organization that has in the past few years shown no indication of either.
posted by VZW Watcher at 2:33 PM -

 
Chuck Finley & the Angels
Yeah, we don't get it. Dan's humorous piece on Chuck Finley's free agency was brought on by a conversation we had about him last night. We don't understand the apparent lack of interest. This is a guy who is a damn good bet, even at 40, to provide a team with close to 200 innings of above-average (even if only slightly) major league pitching. Because he's old and doesn't have a ring, we're going to assume he's interested in winning one next season and would like to pitch for a team that's likely to contend. Boston is a real good fit, you'd think, for the reasons Dan outlined. I really don't see how location is a huge issue for a guy who's just spent the past few seasons in Cleveland and the last two months of 2002 in St. Louis, where he was apparently willing to resign (the Cardinals had other plans). But let's assume, for the sake of argument, that he does want to be back in Southern California near his family, and that's a primary concern for him. Isn't there a contending team down there? A team that Chuck played most of his career for and that won the World Series last year? And that could use another starter to go along with Jarrod Washburn, Kevin Appier, Ramon Ortiz and John Lackey? (sure, you can throw in Aaron Sele too)

Maybe I'm off-base here and there was some kind of major falling out in Anaheim when Finley left which precludes him from returning. But I think that a guy like Finley, who could probably be signed pretty cheaply at this point, could really help the Angels in their quest to repeat as World Champions. The Angels have shown a commitment to spend some money to retain the squad they had a year ago for the most part (they've lost Lou Pote, Al Levine, Dennis Cook, Orlando Palmeiro and Alex Ochoa)...so why not throw another $2-3 million bucks at a guy who a) has won in the postseason b) has a long history with your franchise and c) can still be a legitimate #3 or 4 starter?

Are we wrong? You can yell at us if you'd like, but I really don't see the Angels getting close to winning another World Series (or even being particularly competitive as far as the postseason is concerned) with essentially the same squad they had in place last year. Of course, I would've said that about this roster a year ago too and been dead wrong...but I don't think lightning will strike this bunch twice. Maybe Disney's gotten their fill (they are trying to sell the team) and is now ready to be content with merely keeping up the appearance of trying to repeat and contend going forward. Bill Stoneman's (and whoever else is calling the shots) decision to stand pat this offseason is going to come back and bite the Angels. It'd behoove him to be proactive and quietly improve his team by picking up guys who can help him if and when his regulars from last year don't live up to expectations or break down.
posted by VZW Watcher at 10:31 PM -

 
Before I get to anything else, I’d like to thank Derek Zumsteg from Baseball Prospectus for writing to us here. As guys who are just starting out in baseball writing, it’s quite a thrill to get an acknowledgment from the top. Additionally, one of my favorite sites, theprospectreport.com, has finished their top 10 lists for each organization (this was a little while ago) and has today released their top 100 list for all of baseball. An inexact science to be sure, but it's worth taking a look at.

Dave Nilsson's back
I've always liked Dave Nilsson, and I like this signing. However, I'm a bit curious about the money involved. Ordinarily, in a case like this I would assume that the reason we've heard no figure is because it's totally insignificant. Here I'm not so sure. Nilsson seemed to really want to stay in Australia (he did leave following an excellent season, when he would've made a ton of money from a major league team), so I'd think that the Red Sox would have to be offering him some pretty decent compensation to get him to leave. Of course, there's also the possibility that he wanted another crack at American baseball...but we have no idea. Assuming this is a low cost signing, there's not a whole lot of downside.
Sure, the Red Sox have other guys who do what Nilsson does and aren't great defensively...but this isn't preventing them from addressing any other areas that need improvement. It seems very possible to me that Nilsson is merely your backup first baseman/catcher/DH/left fielder (I have no idea what positions he's been playing in Australia, so I'm just basing that on his MLB career), and he's a guy who has had some great success in the major leagues. If you're a contender like the Red Sox, don't you want to have players who have proven themselves? Of course he's been gone for four seasons now and he's that far removed from facing the competition he once did and likely won't be quite the same player he was in 1999 (at age 29) now at 33. But look at that last season in the bigs! .309/.400/.554 in 404 plate appearances. The guy can (could?) hit. So assuming this is a low-cost signing, great job by Theo Epstein in bringing in a guy who could conceivably be a big help to his team...I don't see much risk involved here. And of course, as a Yankee fan, it's a damn shame.

posted by VZW Watcher at 3:30 PM -

 
It's been a slow day for me, so there's a bunch of new stuff up. Dan and I are working on an article (the first one in the brief history of this site) on the promising catchers of the past ten years, and hopefully that'll be ready for your reading pleasure before too long. As always, if you've got any feedback for us, you know what to do with it.

Baseball Prospectus for money
Most of the content that we've had on this site in the month and a half it's been around has been directly related to on-field baseball matters, and that's as it should be. That said, I think it's worthwhile that we take a moment (or, at least, I take a moment) to acknowledge the step that Baseball Prospectus has announced it'll be taking shortly. As a subscriber to Joe Sheehan's newsletter over the past few months, I was privy to his announcement that the Prospectus would begin to charge for its content soon, and today, the site has gone public with this information. People can (obviously) decide to do whatever they want, but I really don't have a problem with paying the $40 a year for the content they provide and are promising now. As a college student, it'd certainly be nice if they offered some kind of student rate. As someone who buys the annual every year, it'd be nice if there was some kind of discount thrown in for that. As someone who is a bit concerned about the quality and quantity at the site since Joe Sheehan's departure, I think it'd be good to see them offer up a month or so free of charge so we could see if it was worth our money. That said, I read/check BP just about everyday, and I really think it'll be worth the $3.33 a month. There's a hell of a lot of free content, analysis and information out there now, but the work of the guys who really got me interested (along with Rob Neyer) in the objective analysis of baseball is just about the best there is. Not that anyone involved will ever come across these words, but congratulations to the Baseball Prospectus team.

Torii Hunter: 4 years, $32 million
I'm not as enamored with Hunter as some people, and I don't know if this the best way for the Twins to allocate their resources, but it sure is nice to see them spending some money. Hopefully, this is the continuation of a trend (with a bunch of young hitters that should be very good coming up in the system) of signing their own to long term contracts at reasonable prices early in their careers (we saw this with Brad Radke and Joe Mays last offseason). Is $8 million reasonable for Hunter? I'm not sure. My initial reaction was that it seems like quite a bit in the depressed market we're now in. However, the fact is that this contract is going to keep him in Minnesota through what will likely be his peak years (he'll be 30 at the end), and if he performs at a similar level to where he was in 2002, he's one of the top five center fielders in the American League, and while the Twins have a whole bunch of good, young, cheap corner outfielders who are ready or almost ready, they don't really have a replacement lined up for center. So while I'm not totally sold, this seems like a defensible investment and a good sign, if indeed it is indicative of how the franchise will be run going forward.

posted by VZW Watcher at 11:06 PM -

 
Ronnie "the other" Belliard signs with the Rockies
I like this a lot. There's not a whole lot to cover at the moment (I don't really care that Pete Rose is being considered for the Canadian Hall of Fame), so it allows me to get at least a little bit excited about minor league contracts being signed by second basemen in their late 20s. Right now, the likely starting second baseman for the Rockies on Opening Day is Brent Butler, and that's pretty crappy. I'm not going to get into much detail (as you can easily check just how crappy the first 498 plate appearances of his career have been here) about his numbers, but they're definitely not what you'd like to see from an everyday player. Ron Belliard, while far from a lock, is a guy who has shown us in the past that he can perform at a pretty high level. If we look back at the first two full seasons of his career in Milwaukee, he posted lines of .295/.379/.429 in 531 PAs (in 1999, at age 24) and then .263/.354/.389 in 667 PAs (in 2000, at age 25). His 2001 wasn't too shabby either, as he slugged .453 over 410 PAs. His 2002 however, was really horrible, and he's been replaced (probably in part due to injury problems which have plagued him every year except 2000) at second in Milwaukee by Eric Young. Whatever. I don't know how much of a shot he's going to get in Colorado, but given who's in front of him, I'd hope he'll get at least a fair crack. His OBP has steadily been dropping for the last few seasons, but there's got to be some hope that he can get back to somewhere near his 1999-2000 form and be a big improvement for the Rockies at second base. Very low risk signing...nice work here by Dan O'Dowd.

Marlon Anderson to the Devil Rays on the cheap
Am I the only one who thinks Marlon Anderson can be a useful player? He's certainly not going to make anyone forget about Rogers Hornsby, but he's done some adequate work in the major leagues, and this signing costs effectively nothing (it's apparently $600,000 with bonuses that can make it worth up to $800,000) for the Rays. He's nothing more than mediocre defensively at second (could he play somewhere else? he's got no major league experience elsewhere), but he's no worse than Brent Abernathy. Manager Lou Piniella has stated that, "he will compete at second base during spring training and we will move him around to try to make him more than a one-position player." Of course Abernathy, being the younger guy by several years (but not that young anymore, he'll be 25), is someone you'd prefer to see succeed over the haul...but he really had an abysmal year in 2002. Abysmal to the tune of .242/.288/.311 in 504 plate appearances...and a 60 OPS+. Anderson's career .266/.313/.383 line isn't spectacular by any means, but if you threw him out there instead of Abernathy last season, you'd have fielded a better team. It's not as if the Rays are teeming with young second basemen and Anderson's taking away opportunities from them...he's a decent, cheap veteran signing, the kind that is far less detrimental to Tampa than some of their previous ventures (Castilla being the most obvious).
posted by VZW Watcher at 1:24 PM -

 
There'll be more content here shortly on the Bill Mueller signing among other things, but I wanted to get to the big trade right away. I'd also like to point out the addition of a link on the sidebar to Only Baseball Matters, a fine blog I've begun reading recently. It seems a little silly for me to be plugging guys like John Perricone and Aaron Gleeman here, since their sites are much more popular than this one...but if you haven't seen the site, I encourage you to check it out. Additionally, we've got a new way to email us: feedback@thedump.org, for any comments/suggestions/questions.

Adios, amigo
It’s been a bittersweet few minutes for me, having just received an email notification from the Yankees that El Duque has been traded to the Expos (by way of the White Sox). I'll miss Mr. Hernandez a lot, he provided us Yankee fans with some great moments (particularly in the postseason) during his time in New York...he'll certainly be missed. However, the trade keeps Bartolo Colon out of Boston, which had to be at least part of the reason why this happened. The trade’s principles appear to be as follows:

New York Yankees get: Antonio Osuna, Delvis Lantigua (both from White Sox)
Chicago White Sox get: Bartolo Colon, Jorge Nunez (both from Expos), $2 million (from Yankees)
Montreal Expos get: Orlando Hernandez (from Yankees), Rocky Biddle, Jeff Liefer (both from White Sox)

So that’s a total of seven guys and a bunch of cash. From the Yankees’ perspective, they accomplish a few things: a) they keep Colon away from the Red Sox, where it seemed to me he was likely to ultimately end up, b) they get some bullpen help, as Antonio Osuna can pitch a little and c) they get a young pitcher in the process. All those things being said, I really think the Yankees could have done a bit better for El Duque. It’s very possible that I’m exaggerating the market for him, and of course the Yanks are dealing from a position of strength, so it’s easier to accept a slightly lesser return. I’d never heard of Lantigua before this trade happened, but in the last few minutes I’ve taken a look at his numbers, which make him look decent. He’s supposedly 22 and finished last season (unimpressively) at AAA Charlotte and on the White Sox’ 40-man roster. His numbers for the first half of the season (at AA Birmingham) were quite good however, and perhaps an indication that after repeating this coming season at AAA, he’ll eventually be able to contribute something at the major league level.

With the Barons (AA):
6-2, 3.48 ERA (36 runs allowed, 33 earned) in 16 games (15 starts). 67 hits allowed (6 homers), 35 walks and 66 strikeouts over 85.1 innings.

With the Knights (AAA):
1-5, 5.85 ERA (36 runs allowed, 34 earned) in 15 games (8 starts). 46 hits allowed (10! homers), 29 walks and 41 strikeouts over 52.1 innings.

Looking at the trade from the perspectives of the other parties involved, this is a good deal for the White Sox. While they may not win the AL Central this coming season (they’ve got other problems), this gives them a pretty nasty 1-2 combination at the top of their rotation with Colon and Mark Buehrle and certainly helps, particularly in their weak division. And they’re not giving up a whole lot here. The White Sox have a whole bunch of guys they can throw in the bullpen, so Osuna and Biddle really aren’t significant losses. While Jorge Nunez isn’t much of anything (he’s a journeyman AAAA infielder), neither is Jeff Liefer, who is very replaceable. It’s really pretty amazing, especially given Kenny Williams’ history, that he was able to work out a deal giving up so little for such a hot commodity and a legitimate #1 starter and 20-game winner. But I guess he received quite a bit of help from the Yankees towards that end, who really didn’t want to see Colon in Boston.

For the Expos, this is pure salary dump, and it’s pretty shameful. Sure the loss of Colon is offset a bit by adding El Duque (still a very solid starter when healthy), but Biddle and Liefer are pretty worthless and you can easily scrape up guys like that for a lot less cost. Impressive (and surprising) good work from Kenny Williams, with the assist (and pat on the back from me) to Brian Cashman. Another black eye for the Expos.


posted by VZW Watcher at 11:53 AM -

 
Thanks for visiting. We'd like to acknowledge our climb to the "starting lineup" over at Aaron's Baseball Blog and thank him both for helping us out as we get the site going again and also for doing great work over there. If somehow you're getting here and haven't been reading his work, we strongly recommend it. Additionally, if you have comments on this site or have your own blog and would like to be listed here, please get in touch with us using one of the links/addresses in the column on the left. If you want some other content with your baseball, we've got new stuff at thedump.org as well. Enjoy.

Paul Wilson to Cincinnati
Reportedly $4 million over 2 years, broken down at $500,000 in year one and $3.5 million in year two to "help the Reds with cash flow." Remember when Paul Wilson was gonna be great? Of course every baseball fan who was in New York in the mid-90s remembers the Mets' up-and-coming trio of Pulsipher, Wilson and Isringhausen, who were supposed to set the world on fire. That didn't exactly happen, and Wilson didn't pitch at all after his experience with the Mets in '96 for another 4 years. When he did pitch again, it looked like we could again project great things for him, as he had a very nice (albeit brief) stint with the Devil Rays in 2000. He's really not lived up to that promise, turning in two slightly below average seasons in Tampa over about 350 innings. He looks to finally have stabilized his health, and at age 30, doesn't seem likely to deviate too much from the work we've seen him do recently. At what is effectively $2 million a year, he'll likely be a decent fourth or fifth starter (currently slated to be #4) for both years of this contract at worst, and better than that if things break right for him. Pretty low risk signing for the Reds, who should still be looking to trade for Brad Penny (well, I would still be interested) if their budget will allow it. A rotation of Ryan Dempster, Jimmy Haynes, Danny Graves and Paul Wilson doesn't scare me just yet...Penny would help a lot.

Eddie and Gary go to Cooperstown
Both of these guys are clearly deserving, and their cases have been thoroughly documented by people who know a lot more than I do. Eddie Murray is as much of a shoo-in as there is…the fact that a guy like him doesn’t get 100% of the vote is a bit confusing to me. Do writers actually believe that he’s not a Hall-of-Famer? I guess I’m of the mindset that if a guy deserves it, he deserves it…and that doesn’t change over the course of the years he’s on the ballot. I can’t see how a writer could possibly look at the career Eddie Murray compiled and not deem him worthy of enshrinement. I realize some guys don’t think anyone should get in on their first shot, but I really think that’s ludicrous…why else would they be eligible? Whatever. Gary Carter is less of a slam dunk, but he’s also a clear cut Hall-of-Famer in my eyes. Simply put, if you have one of the ten greatest careers for any player at your position, you deserve to get in. Carter was a great catcher, the best in baseball, over a lengthy period of time. Very easy call. There’s been some talk in the wake of the announcements about what cap Carter will be wearing on his plaque, whether it’ll be the Expos or the Mets. I’ve seen Carter take some crap about coming out and saying he’d prefer a Mets cap, despite the fact that he played the bulk of his career in Montreal and would be the first guy with an Expo cap in the Hall. I’m not sure I understand why. He’s said that he’ll honor whatever request the Hall makes (not that he has a choice in the matter), and just got his opinion out there. It’s not like his tenure with the Mets was insignificant…he won a World Series in New York and currently works for the organization. If he feels more connected to the team, what’s the problem? If he wants to pass up the chance to be the first (only?) guy wearing an Expo hat in the Hall, who cares?

I support the candidacy of a few other guys (Bert Blyleven more than anyone else) who didn’t make it, but the real confusing one is Ryne Sandberg, who I really thought would get in on the first ballot. He wasn’t particularly close though, and I’m not sure why. Maybe I’m wrong about this, but as I grew up while Ryno was dominating the second base position, I always thought he was a Hall lock. While his first retirement certainly hurt his career totals a bit, I still look back on a great career and a guy who was one of the best players at his position in history. While I’m sure he’ll make it in the next few years, his lack of support this time around surprised me.

posted by VZW Watcher at 3:22 AM -

 
Shinjo's back in Queens
The contract is reportedly for $600,000 with performance incentives that could make it worth up to $1 million. This is not a big signing by any means, but he'll be a nice defensively replacement in the Met outfield at all three positions and a decent bat off the bench. He's also insurance if Cedeno should succumb to injury and can spot start as needed. Shinjo had a real bad season in 2002 offensively, but there's certainly a chance that he can return to 2001 form (when he was with the Mets) and be a perfectly reasonable and cheap fourth outfielder. Given the Mets current lack of depth in the outfield, there's not a whole lot to complain about here at this price (he made substantially more last season). He's also a fan favorite and is very entertaining to watch in the outfield, as he's quite flashy.

Even with the positive things I've had to say about him, it's pretty funny that Shinjo and Brad Fullmer, a far superior offensive player, have signed in the past week for pretty comparable money. Even assuming a pretty substantial hometown/championship team discount with Fullmer, it's hard to believe he couldn't have done a bit better. In any case, this signing looks fine for the Mets.
posted by VZW Watcher at 3:09 PM -

 
Enjoy the football this weekend. The main site should be up and running at our new url soon (http://www.thedump.org, link doesn't work just yet), so it should be considerably easier to remember and tell other people about if you're so inclined. The content over there, like here, should be flowing regularly again starting today, so keep checking it out if you're liking what you're reading. As always, if you've got feedback for us, we'd love to hear it. On to baseball.

No Colon, Marlins trade for Redman
Florida Marlins get: Mark Redman
Detroit Tigers get: two unnamed minor leaguers

I was pretty skeptical about that Colon-Penny trade actually happening, and I guess the acquisition of Mark Redman ends any possibility that it will. Redman, in his brief major league career (which consists of about two and a half season with the Twins and Tigers) has been a very serviceable, average major league lefty starter. There's been some talk of endurance problems with him in the past, but his 203 innings last season in Detroit are an indication that perhaps that's no longer the case at age 28. While he doesn't strike out a whole lot of guys (109 in said 203 innings), the bottom line is, he doesn't allow a whole lot of guys to cross the plate (4.21 ERA) either. He was just about exactly league average last season (100 ERA+ on the button) and for the $300,000 he's making, he'd be a fine innings eater for most staffs and will be a bottom of the rotation starter for the Marlins next season, one would think. No word on which two minor leaguers are going back to Detroit here, so we'll have to wait and see. This is actually a fairly intelligent deal by Florida, assuming of course that they aren't sending back some of their farm system's jewels (as they were rumored to be doing for Colon). As usual, not clear on what the Tigers are thinking, as starting pitching (particularly cheap starting pitching) isn't that easy to come by.

Selig's No-Star idea
I'd like to get my two cents in on the Selig All-Star Game proposal, as this seems to be a fairly big baseball news story the last several days, though I think Pete did a pretty good job of tackling it yesterday. Very simply, it's a stupid idea, not that I'd expect anything less. When I hear Selig make a suggestion or statement, I really do consciously try to divorce myself from my dislike of him and look at what he's saying in an attempt to find some merit, as there has to be some reason why this guy has gotten where he has. Again, he's blown me away with ridiculousness. What's wrong with just having the team with the best record get home field advantage? I realize it's a flawed system because teams in different leagues play different schedules, but you can only play who you're scheduled to play and can only be judged based on your demonstrated performance. How is this any different from the NFL? Within each conference, teams play wildly different schedules and yet they're all held to the same standard when it comes down to home field through the championship games. Teams care a lot about having the best record in their conference, and if this system were in place, you'd potentially have teams that are way ahead in their division (even their league) playing hard until the end of the season in an effort to beat out teams from the other league. There's really no downside to this that I can see, especially when compared to Selig's plan, which would leave the fates of contenders in the hands of scrub All-Stars from the Brewers and Devil Rays. We could also just leave it the way it is. Does anyone really have a huge problem with the alternating system? I understand the objective here is to develop some incentive for playing hard in the All-Star Game, but this isn't the way to do it. You can't (shouldn't) tinker with something that's really important in games that really count just to make an exhibition game more entertaining.

So what can be done to improve the All-Star Game? I think expanding rosters is a pretty crappy idea. Part of the fun of All-Star selection process is that every year there are inevitably guys who are very deserving and don't make it. That's how it's been for years. You've got to be really, really good and distinguish yourself from your peers, or you need to have a manager who likes you coaching the team. Or you can have the fans adore you and vote you in. Talking about All-Star snubs is one of the more enjoyable parts of the All-Star process, I'd hate to see that lessened at all, and it's certainly not a necessary step in avoiding last year's debacle. The real way to get into players/managers and make them want to win the All-Star is through personal incentives, not team ones. Once that game is over, they all go back to their respective teams and get on with their own business. Let's say the Red Sox are real bad one year and the Yanks are running away with the American League's best record. Where's the incentive for the Red Sox representative to make his best effort to win that game? Let's say the Red Sox went to the Series the previous year and their manager is the AL manager. Where's his incentive? The way to make them interested is through money. Contracts should be written be drawn up going forward giving a bigger bonus to players who are on the winning team in the All-Star game rather than just getting there. Bottom line is, the All-Star game isn't that important and people are going to watch it anyway, just as they do for the NBA, NHL and NFL, who have far worse games than baseball. Selig's idea is really awful though and detrimental to the sport, so I really hope it gets squashed.
posted by VZW Watcher at 11:49 AM -

 
It's been awhile. We're back. The reasons for this lengthy absence are of no interest to you all I am quite sure, but we will try to cover a bunch of the stuff we've missed (though luckily it's been kind of a light news time) and finally, get back to the daily updates. We thank those of you who are still checking the site and look forward to your continued readership as we bring you a steady and improving stream of content.

Colon to the Marlins?
It's being reported by various outlets in the last 48 hours that there's a deal in the works that would send Bartolo Colon to Florida in a three way deal that would also involve the Reds. At this point, given what we know about the Marlins and how they do business, it's legitimate to be pretty skeptical about any moves they make. The deal, as has been reported, breaks down like this:

Florida Marlins get: Bartolo Colon (from Expos), Ty Howington (from Reds)
Cincinnati Reds get: Brad Penny (from Marlins),
Montreal Expos get: Luke Hudson (from Reds), Blaine Neal, Adrian Gonzalez, Don Levinski (from Marlins)

I'm far from convinced this is going to happen, as there appear to be very real health issues involving Penny in particular. Regardless, the fact that its even being discussed is pretty unbelievable. Putting aside everyone else they’d be giving up, Adrian Gonzalez was a #1 overall pick. He’s viewed a legitimate, all-star caliber, starting first baseman in the major leagues who may well be ready as soon as 2004. With a team that needs offense and is awash in young pitching, you’d think the objective of the Marlins’ front office would be to continue to trade expendable veterans for young offense…not give up one of the better offensive prospects in baseball for veteran (albeit excellent) pitching. Is there anyone who honestly believes that Bartolo Colon would stay in Florida if he ever got there? The Marlins have no interest in paying for a player who makes as much as Colon does, and on top of that, they’ve got viable alternatives for their rotation. I’d fully expect that if this ever went through you’d then see Colon shipped off to Boston, which as a Yankee fan I’d rather not see.Seeing more trades involving the Expos and Marlins just screams something that’s not exactly above board, though I’m really basing that statement on nothing factual. The fact that Jeff Loria (the Marlins owner) is permitted to continue to operate that franchise is a travesty.

This must be a strange time for pitching prospect Don Levinski, who was involved in the first Cliff Floyd trade, where he was sent from Montreal to Florida. And now he may be going back. This isn’t unprecedented by any means, but you’d think that if a guy is able to establish himself as a formidable prospect (as Levinski has), organizations wouldn’t be willing to repeatedly let him slip through their hands. In terms of the near future, Levinski’s probably better off in the Montreal system with less young pitching around him than he has in Florida.


posted by VZW Watcher at 5:03 PM -